We are forgetting one important change in our economy

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1. As @jheil said on Morning Joe yesterday, “The Yankees suck.”

2. Are we undervaluing an important positive change to our economy?  That being: it has never been better to start a small business.

If you talk to some of the biggest HFs in the US they are all preparing uniquely for the US fiscal cliff.  Worse yet the perfect storm of slowness in China, someone leaving the Eurozone and the US fiscal cliff contemporaneously.  When I was in Singapore the dip in GDP growth from the expected 8 percent to 7,7 percent brought worldwide anxiety and markets lower.  It is easy to see a Greek politician selling the exit from Eurozone debt.  And who is to say that after the election Congress and the President will be able to strike a deal on the budget.

Quietly this is the consensus.  The biggest funds do not want to miss the next Big Short.

Yet it has never been cheaper to start a business.  If you become great at something you can become global.  There is no need for millions in advertising to reach a mass audience.  Just start tweeting.  Create a FaceBook page.  For our world just share your trades on Stocktwits.  80 plus countries touch our website each day because we created a niche in trader education.  We have partners in South Africa, Spain, Singapore and London for our education.  And there are talks for partnerships in Russia, Canada and Latin America.

But you need millions to hire a sophisticated sales and marketing staff no?  Powerful sales software like Salesforce and marketing software like Act-On help even a small company gather data to drive sales.  ($CRM and Act-On can send royalty checks to our downtown address.)

The banks will not lend money to small businesses so this dooms entrepreneurs from the start no?  The banks are a joke.  They will call and call and call about wanting to “develop a relationship with your growing business”.  Mainly that consists of letting you borrow the money your company keeps in the bank.  Have a history of 100k in the bank and you can borrow up to that.  Gee thanks.   How does that help?  But the good news is that it is cheaper to hire awesome coders who can help you build amazing tools.  It would be nice to see progress in ease of lending to small businesses after the next election.  Banks significantly stifle growth with their unwillingness to take on risk.

Technology allows us all to be more productive.  The best example is the quality of our mobile phones such that we can respond to clients.  This technology can cause conflict with the wife during dinner with her.  “Michael please put your phone away.”  Small business owners can get more done and in less time.  This helps all small businesses make more.

Deleveraging does diminish the amount of money that can be spent.  As the federal, state and local levels of government cut back this takes money from the economy to be spent.  As consumers have less purchasing power this leaves less to be spent.  As it is harder to get a home mortgage this slows our housing sector and all the derivatives of that.  It would seem to follow that this on its face would make it harder for every small business.  But let’s start adding to this analysis that it has never been a better time to start a small business.  This may mitigate deleveraging a bit more than a majority contemplates.


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