The Shakeout

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When I am trading I do the right thing.  I am not concerned with my results.  If a stock is a buy then I buy.  If it’s a short then I get short.  If my trade doesn’t work out then them’s the breaks as they say.  And if I spot one of my better trading setups and it doesn’t work, then no big deal.  Today I had one of those nice setups.  I had one of those trades where I like to get aggressive. And oh boy did it not work.

I was trading WLP on the Open.  One of our new trainees did a nice job highlighting this stock in our AM Meeting.  And WLP was a great trading stock on the Open.  WLP held the 37 bid, after significant volume, it spread up towards 37.60 and did not go down. WLP followed this pattern till it ran out of steam at 39.50.  But what a nice move on the Open.  Some easy money on the longside here.

And then things got a little bit more complicated.  If we would have just quit while we were ahead.  WLP traded down towards 38.50.   And this was another important intraday level.  WLP could not trade below 42c.  And WLP was not trading much above 53c.  WLP was in a nice tight range.   I was ready to play the breakout.  I got long in front of 42c a bunch.  But WLP would not trade much above 53c as noted.  And I held.  Finally 42c dropped and this is where all the fun started.  Fun for the Specialist that is.  And not so much fun for me.

But this is a trade I will make 10/10 times.  This is a trade with which to be aggressive.  This is a trade that will make you money over the course of your trading career.  Just not today.  Just not today in WLP.  Just not with this Specialist.I flipped my long at 41c and got aggressively short.  WLP traded lower.  32c did not drop.  A huge print went accross at 33c. The stock never traded lower.  Ripper.  Ripper.  Ripper.

I covered one of the lots that I was short at 33c.  But I got caught with two lots.  Most importantly I had trouble getting back in on the long side at good prices.  WLP slowly drifted up towards 39.  The least the Specialist could have done was included a violent upmove towards 39 after the shakeout.  I would have made back the money I ripped up below 41c if he had.

Hey but this is one of the possibilities.  It is most likely that when 42c drops that WLP will trade lower and quickly.  7/10 trades I will make a chop in this trade.  Today was one of those 3/10 times when the trade did not work.  When you short below an important intraday level you must consider the fake breakdown.  You must consider the shakeout.  And you must do this before you enter your trade.

So I got out of some at 33c.  But I should have gotten out of another lot.  My mistake.  But I made a good trade.  I got beat. The Specialist can now afford that third vacation home he has been eyeing.  Good for him.  Chump! (just kidding)  He was better than me today.  We will see how that turns out over the next few days.

Good luck with your trading!

WLP 1-day 1-13-09

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