Steven Spencer (Steve’s) Blogs

How To Identify A Long Term Bottom–Twitter

Aug 26th, 2016 | By | Category: Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs, Trading Lesson
In this video I discuss the process by which Twitter formed a long term bottom in 2016. This lesson has broad applicability for traders/investors attempting to catch larger moves (30%+) in the stock market. Steven Spencer is the co-founder of SMB Capital and SMB University which provides trading education in stocks, options, forex and futures. He has traded professionally for 20 years. His email address is: [email protected] Steven Spencer is currently long TWTR Read more [...]


A Macro Trade That Is Working

Aug 18th, 2016 | By | Category: Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs
Rarely if ever do I develop a trading thesis that involves macro analysis and a time horizon greater than a few months. But through conversations with pro traders with experience in the energy sector and reading a few excellent analyses on the oil sector I came to view oil as a great risk/reward long trade from the high $30s up to $60/bl. This video updates my current thoughts. I will continue to tweet updates and create new videos as the trade progresses through the rest of 2016. Enjoy!   Steven Spencer is the co-founder of SMB Capital and SMB University which provides trading education in stocks, Read more [...]


Is Citron Research Committing Securities Fraud?

Aug 14th, 2016 | By | Category: General Comments, Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs
The Citron Research website has been around for a number of years. It first came to my attention roughly five years ago when I was approached with an idea to make short trades based on their blog posts. That idea never panned out as the stocks they wrote about weren't very liquid, and therefore the risk/reward didn't make sense to me. Fast forward to 2015 and they were writing about short opportunities in large cap stocks. Citron and several others became very vocal about shorting Valeant Pharmaceuticals, a company that was a popular long position among larger hedge funds, and Bill Ackman in particular. Andrew Left, the owner/founder Read more [...]


Old School Market Manipulation

Aug 4th, 2016 | By | Category: Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs
So my friend JC Parets tweeted recently that he is miffed by traders and investors complaining about market manipulation and not formulating a plan to profit from said manipulation. His point is, I think, as market participants our job is to find ways to extract profit from the market and if we recognize patterns/manipulations then we should have a plan to exploit them. Here is my contribution to the effort. This is a type of manipulation that I have seen as long as I can remember and it works pretty damn well. This week it occurred in GRPN and I was able to take advantage of it. The setup was GRPN had reported solid earnings Read more [...]


That Was Different—Did You Make Money?

Aug 2nd, 2016 | By | Category: General Comments, Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs, Trading Lesson
In short term trading we are always on the lookout for something that looks "different". That is where edge is. That is where good risk/reward is. The past few weeks the SPY has been bopping up and down in a tiny range. After four or five days it was unusual. After two weeks it was historic. Every short term trader was focused on which direction we would break. Beginning yesterday, I began to become more bearish when we failed to hold above 217.50. So this morning with the market gapping lower I was prepared to get short SPY and look for price action confirmation. The following items are "textbook" things to look for Read more [...]


Long Oil–How Much More Upside This Year?

Jul 16th, 2016 | By | Category: Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs, Trading Lesson
In this video Steve offers his thoughts on the current technical state of oil, and what he is looking for going forward. Steven Spencer is the co-founder of SMB Capital and SMB University which provides trading education in stocks, options, forex and futures. He has traded professionally for 20 years. His email address is: [email protected] Steven Spencer is currently long USO Read more [...]


Why Buy Gold On A “Risk On” Day?

Jul 9th, 2016 | By | Category: Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs
I received the following email last night while watching Netflix: Dear Steve,      my name is Guglielmo and I'm glad to be part of the Trader90 community. I trade from Singapore. Yesterday in the AM meeting you were discussing GLD as a long being a very strong stock. At the same time, we saw the strong NFP numbers, suggesting a risk-on day and a sell of safe assets including gold. Evidently, the latter thesis was wrong, so would you mind elaborating a little bit more why you had confidence in buying GLD? Thank you. Your AM meetings are so valuable. Regards, Guglielmo This is an excellent question. When the June non-farm Read more [...]


Don’t Fade This

Jun 11th, 2016 | By | Category: Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs, Trading Lesson
In last week's video I discussed getting long the market into weakness when a trading range has been established. Today's video discusses a set of conditions in which to not make this sort of trade.   Steven Spencer is the co-founder of SMB Capital and SMB University which provides trading education in stocks, options, forex and futures. He has traded professionally for 19 years. His email address is: [email protected] Steven Spencer is currently short SPY Read more [...]