Stop Paying the Offer

BellaMike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs4 Comments

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein

The past two days I have witnessed downmoves in NTRI and ITMN caused by undisciplined traders paying the offer.  I tweeted yesterday:

If you are paying the offer in $NTRI you will make it go down. The HFTs are waiting for you to pay 4 too much at a bad price. BID! $10:08 AM May 4th via web

I tweeted today:

for those trading $ITMN 4 shorterm long if you pay the offer at the new high you will make the stock go down. Accumulate on the Bid! $about 1 hour ago via web

The pattern for both stocks was clear.  A new high was created, short term traders blasted the offer, the stock traded lower until those who blasted the offer finished whacking the bids, and then the stock headed higher.  Some advice: stop blasting the offer please!

Yesterday I noticed NTRI starting an uptrend above 22.  Then overly aggressive momentum traders blasted the offers at 22.20.  The result?  A quick downmove to 21.60ish.  Hmmmm.

Today ITMN started an intraday uptrend and found a new high through 11, an important intraday resistance level.  Then at 11.14 the momo longs blasted the 11.14 offer at the new high.  The result?  A downmove below 10.50 a significant intraday support level.  Sensing a pattern here?

If you wish to play these stocks on the long side, and the stock has shown you the pattern of a downmove after every new intraday high, then accumulate on the bid.  Paying the new high offer just triggers an algo that will take your money.  And as an aside it shakes some of the rest of us out of excellent longer term positions.  You blasting the offer causes our stocks to find lower prices it could never find if you never paid the offer.

So you are losing.  I am losing more.  And the algos are taking your money and sometimes mine.  And the stock is only later going to head higher.

4 Comments on “Stop Paying the Offer”

  1. really good info. i have the same problems with nsdq stocks. I tend to avoid them even though they might look good technically. however, when you have news like DNDN last week, they are the easiest to make money. Clean held bids and points of upside.

  2. really good info. i have the same problems with nsdq stocks. I tend to avoid them even though they might look good technically. however, when you have news like DNDN last week, they are the easiest to make money. Clean held bids and points of upside.

  3. is this the same reason that shorts are so hard to make money during these distribution days?

  4. is this the same reason that shorts are so hard to make money during these distribution days?

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