Traders,
Heck of a finish last week, which has set the tone for the watchlist. As I walked through in great length at my recent Inside Access meeting, Thursday’s confirmation of a bear trap really laid out the path for follow-through on Friday.
Friday’s close, across the board, was fantastic…and it definitely makes it easy to get all bullish with so many fantastic charts…seemingly everywhere I look. In this tape, who’s to say what happens next, though. My key focus will be whether QQQ’s breakout attempt holds or fails and trades back firmly in the range.
For now, though, after Thursday’s bear trap confirmation and Friday’s close, I’m preparing more for potential upside follow-through. If QQQ / the overall market fails on the breakout and falls back within the range, I’ll exit quickly and certainly will not force a bias on this tape. At the end of the day, we are still in a range!
There’s a bunch on my watchlist, so I’ll be a bit briefer than usual for each name.
ETHA / IBIT: I absolutely love the false breakdown in ETHA, sub-18, only to reclaim sharply and close HOD on Friday. I’m long from Friday, and looking to add if we take out the prior week’s high, near 20, for a multi-day hold. Ideally, a failed move lower leads to a fast move higher. The stop right now is Friday’s low. Other areas of focus in cryptoland: IBIT, SOLZ.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
AMD: Beautiful breakout on Thursday, and follow-through on Friday. I discussed my position and thoughts at length in Thursday’s meeting. For a fresh entry in the name, I’d need to see a pullback and a higher low / 2-day range break. No chasing or new adds at these prices.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
MSFT: Nothing to do just yet, but MSFT’s chart stands out to me as it further coils and tightens in range. If I notice MSFT show relative intraday strength and base over 500, I’d likely enter a feeler long swing, with risk-on above 510 – 515.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
TEAM: Nice consolidation all week last week, above flattening short-term SMAs, and a stone’s throw away from its 52-week high. Above last week’s high, I would look to enter long for the consolidation breakout, against LOD.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
COIN: If strength holds up around the narrative and crypto, COIN is increasingly looking good to me down here for a fresh-stage run. Beautiful month-long consolidation. Will be watching this for a potential ORB or a hold above Friday’s high and a continuation entry.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
BWET: This remains on watch for a mean reversion, but as I said during Thursday’s meeting, I am in NO RUSH. As I said, it feels like it needs to blow out… who knows… maybe 1,000+ is coming. Either way, I’m not looking to get cute with it. I’ll wait for the change of character and consolidation breakdown entry / bouncy-ball short / lower high short / parabolic intraday blow-off short. Let’s see.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Several other names are on watch, as well, with similar positioning. But as I said at the start – the key focus has to be on the overall market’s positioning and ability to break out of this range. If resistance firms up and the breakout attempt fails, I won’t be focusing on consolidation breakout entries across the board. First and foremost, respect the market and overall price action – don’t force a strategy or bias if the market isn’t rewarding said strategy yet. All I can do is be prepared for potential scenarios… in this case, I’m preparing for follow-through… but that doesn’t mean it has to happen.