Trader’s
I hope you’ve all had a wonderful weekend! I’m traveling this weekend, so this week’s watchlist will be briefer than usual, but nonetheless, I will still share my thoughts on the current environment!
First off, we had an excellent Inside Access meeting on Thursday, where we dissected the current environment at great length and spent time explaining which strategies and styles are most appropriate and being rewarded in this tape. Go back and listen to that meeting if you missed it… You might walk away with something valuable for your own trading.
Now, as mentioned previously, the bigger-picture trade I was most excited about was a push in several prior leading names and sector ETFs back toward their flattening/declining 50-day SMAs. We got that, be it in individual names, DRAM, or even QQQ. Unfortunately, though, it occurred overnight on earnings. As opposed to failed follow-through intraday and a weak close, offering the chance to head out overnight with cushion and a reduced position. Thursday’s overnight failure and gap-down took the trade and entry opportunity away. Then came Friday’s action, with severe downside follow-through and early signs of panic and capitulation.
In the short term, Friday’s move, for me, now eliminates the skewed risk-reward that previously existed for a potential multi-day short swing opp. For the week ahead, I’ll focus on move2move trades in either direction, looking to fade any major outlier or extreme intraday move, and, of course, focus heavily on day 1/2 earnings plays, with AAPL, AMD, PLTR, and others reporting.
Alright, now, onto some names that I am watching for the week ahead:
QQQ: Potential reactive short if prior support near 700 firms up as newfound resistance. Alternatively, if we reclaim 700 and firm up, I’d look for intraday longs in the usual basket of tech leaders showing notable intraday relative strength. The ideal scenario would, of course, be another gap-lower and washout, setting up a potential A+ intraday bounce opp.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
MU: Continues to show impressive strength in its sector. However, if weakness continues and MU breaks the 850s key HTF level, I’ll look for an intraday short opp aligned with the higher-timeframe breakdown level.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
SPCX: Nice follow-through to the downside on Friday, as discussed during Thursday’s meeting. If SPCX fails to reclaim 2-day VWAP / key levels and holds weak, I’ll look for momo short opps and continuation lower.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
NBIS: On the short side, I’m interested if we hold weak sub Friday’s low (higher timeframe support level too). In that case, I’d be looking for momentum short patterns intraday.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
CRWV: Similar to NBIS, 51 / Friday’s low is shaping up to be a short-term potential breakdown spot. If it holds sub this support zone and shows relative intraday weakness, I’ll look for consolidation breakdown momo trades intraday.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Trade well, see you next week!