I Should Have Made This Trade

BellaMike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs, Trader Development2 Comments

On my flight down to St. John I continue my introspection of whether I should have made this trade. I read our readers helpful comments. Thank you. At 37,000 feet, cramped in coach that was not designed for those over 6′, with no Jet Blue Dish Network, or Virgin Broadband (that @HowardLindzon is always chirping about), it is just me, my thoughts and my travel computer. Soon I might add a double vodka with a splash of tonic. Hey I am on vacation. But if my writing starts to change that could be the reason.

Ok some lady just turned my too little room into even less room. It looks really nice up there in First Class. Maybe a spot of water for us in coach ma’am. My travel partner fell asleep before we left the gate. But I do have my David Gray ripping through my Christmas in ear head phones. “Be Mine”. Classic. And in a few hours I will be sitting on one of the most beautiful beaches I have visited. By the way when did Continental and Air Canada become partners? I chose Continental not Air Canada. Isn’t that like going to Yankee Stadium and seeing a Blue Jays/ Minnesota game breaking out? Oh they just closed the curtain to First Class. What are they serving up there? Smells really good.

Ok, I have made up mind. I should have made the trade. Yes there was something telling me not to make the trade. That voice was wrong. And if I mentally map out this trade and add it to my playbook next time he will be silent. Here’s why……

UPS was In Play. It was above it’s 52 week high. The overall market was strong. 60.08 was a significant level. OK now they are passing out those hot towels in First Class. I love those. UPS had cleared this premarket resistance level. UPS made a strong move up to 57c. And then it dropped out quickly to the previous premarket resistance level of 60.08. There was protection at 60 and below at 59.95. UPS had gapped up and failed to sell off much and now was at higher ground, an excellent on the Open pattern, Cart girl (her real title is probably flight attendant) just took away some of my left shoulder free room. Ouch. I went with the double vodka and OJ. I could use some vitamin C.

Yes this could be pattern B where UPS next traded below 60.08, stopping me out of my original Trade2Hold and my second lot into the pullback. And you will see this result if you make this trade on the Open. Come on lady seriously, another inch. But the risk/reward is still excellent. Our win rate is 1/3 if not better with a strong market and right on the Open. Our upside was 1-2 points potentially. Our downside was most likely 13c at most. I like that math here. And as an aggressive on the Open trader this fits my trading personality and extenuates my trading skills.

Trays are being passed out in First Class with champagne glasses. There are two flight attendants up there servicing 12 people. Oops some guy from coach just crashed First Class and hit the bathroom. Can you do that? I like that guy. Some Jennifer Aniston and Aaron Eckhart movie is playing on the 6×8 movie player twenty feet away. Not exactly like the 60inch HD TV set up I have at home. But Jen A is funny. That could be fun after a few more drinks.

What I will do going forward is add this play to my playbook. I do this by recording it in my trading journal. I recall best from that which I write down. I learn better this way. Then I will mentally rehearse this set up a few dozen times till my brain instinctively recognizes this as a trade to make. I will start making this trade live and take notes in my journal tweaking it depending on different market variables and what I learn from experience.

My significant other just awoke and took a sip of my OJ and made a yuck face. “There is something wrong with your OJ.” She is going back to sleep.

Seriously thanks to all of our readers for making this a great flight. It is what you do in life that shapes you. And writing for an audience who I can share what the market has taught me over the past twelve years is a blast.

Gonna Kindle now. Are they serving warm chocolate chip cookies in First Class?

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2 Comments on “I Should Have Made This Trade”

  1. Bella – One of your best Blogs to date…I am not sure what I enjoyed more; Your humor on the plane or the valuable lesson on how you develop a “play” in your playbook…LMAO!!!

  2. Bella – One of your best Blogs to date…I am not sure what I enjoyed more; Your humor on the plane or the valuable lesson on how you develop a “play” in your playbook…LMAO!!!

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