During our video review session intraday today we watched some tape of TGT. One of our experienced traders, NYU, faded TGT into its second upmove on the Open at 33.75. There was a struggle at 33 and the buyers won sending TGT quickly to 33.80. NYU thought the move was overdone and got short. This was a poor fade trade. … Read More
Playing for UConn
One of the hardest things when you begin trading is focusing on what is important. At most firms there are leader boards in full view. On your screens it’s impossible to miss your P&L. But it takes about three years to become a great trader. And you can’t make a ton of money until you have developed significant trading skills and learned … Read More
Flat Before the Number?
After the Close our desk had a spirited debate about whether a trader should have a position before an announcement (in this case the oil and gas number). On Tuesdays we meet after the Close to watch video of One Good Trade produced by a few of our experienced traders. One of our most improved traders, let’s call him MIT, … Read More
GS: Too Hard?
Most new traders should not be trading GS. GS is a very difficult trading stock. The spread is 30c to 50c. It reverses often intraday. There are programs that make it difficult to hit new lows. Trading with size is near impossible. Only the very best of set ups are profitable. GS is broken. And it has been since it … Read More
A Fundamentally Poor Trade
Never short a stock very close to an important support level. Let me explain. 88 is a very important support level for GS. Tuesday the stock leaked below 88. But it could not hold below 88. Later the stock rallied strongly. A few on our desk shorted GS when 88.30 held the offer. This is a fundamentally poor trade. Let’s … Read More
Overvaluing Recent Events
Here’s a really good article about overvaluing recent events. For a trader it is instructive. I say this because one of our new traders sent me an email recently: “I know my big weakness is trading on the Open. Do you have any suggestions on how to improve or what to look for in order to increase my morning productivity?” I … Read More
Standing in Front of a Freight Train
I am not sure why but too often traders fade moves like yesterday into the Close. The market bounced over 800 points during the last two hours of trading. I was talking with an experienced trader after the Close and came up with a theory. Traders tend to miss the beginning of bounces. The market has been weak. The market … Read More
Last 15 Minutes
Large movements generally start more than 15 minutes before the Close. The last four trading days we have seen very explosive moves in the last 15 minutes of the trading day. Today we tanked right before the Close. The last two trading days we have seen significant downmoves. The two trading before that we saw significant upmoves. Today in the … Read More