Archive for February 2009
Occasionally, you come across setups where your risk is 10 cents and your reward can be multiple points. I usually find these trades no more than three times per month. These are trades that I cannot accept missing when they occur. I found such a trade yesterday afternoon.
AAPL had been trending up strongly. It appeared to be heading to 93 dollars. But whenever the bid would go higher than 92.80 it would never hold. Offers would quickly lift in the 92.80s but as soon as the bids above 92.80 were hit they would retreat. One time I actually made the mistake of paying 92.88 for AAPL when the bid stepped up aggressively to 92.85. Within seconds the offer was at 92.80. This pattern Read more [...]
Do Not Chase Stocks!
Feb 26th, 2009 | By jtomasulo | Category: General Comments, Jeff Tomasulo's Blogs
A problem I see time and time again in my own trading, but more so in inexperienced traders, is when you miss a move in a stock or in the market, we tend to chase and push. This is obviously a lack of discipline. But how can you protect yourself from this? First, let everybody understand that it is alright to miss a move, s**t happens. The key is to not compound the missed opportunity by making bad buys or sales and lose money. Make a new plan and ask yourself what needs to happen to get you back involved. "If A happens, I do B. If C happens I do D. If none of this happens, I do nothing." For example, On Wednesday GS was in an upward trend.(chart attached below) After I missed Read more [...]
From the Mailbag
Feb 26th, 2009 | By Bella | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
Yesterday Sam asked the following question ….Sam Says: February 25th, 2009 at 7:20pm: What characteristics make a good intraday trading stock?A good intraday trading stock offers you excellent risk/reward opportunities. It is a stock that you can read is about to trade higher or lower. A good intraday stock gives you good prints. A good intraday stock is one that moves. But the moves are not crazy, scarey, and/or unpredictable.
A good intraday stock is one where you can identify spots where your risk/reward is 1×5. A stock where you downside is 5c and your upside is 25c, or your downside is 20c and your upside is $1. A good intraday stock is one where you surmise that your risk/reward is Read more [...]
Buy to WYNN
Feb 25th, 2009 | By Bella | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
I traded WYNN today. It was a very good intraday trading stock. I have noticed lately that stocks are being bought differently in this new market. Let's discuss the trading in WYNN today to explain.
The market has sold off from 13,000 to today's close of 7270. WYNN has sold off from 110 to today's close of 21.75. Lately it takes time for stocks to trade higher after buying is identified.
21.60 was a significant intraday level in WYNN. WYNN was in a downtrend trading between 21.25 and 21.60. WYNN had trouble trading above 21.60. It finally did.
Now normally after a stock like WYNN traded above 21.60 we would expect a quick upmove. In fact, if after WYNN cleared Read more [...]
Excellent Risk/Reward Trades
Feb 25th, 2009 | By sspencer | Category: General Comments, Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs, Trading Theory
This post is going to be short but sweet. I will highlight two trades from today. The first is a technical trade that was highlighted on our AM Ideas Sheet. The second is an example of a low risk entry point in a stock that is usually quite difficult to trade intraday.
Recently, gold has been very strong. For the past two weeks it has been trending higher. But the traders on our desk noticed relative weekness in some of the mining stocks. This type of divergence often offers incredible risk/reward setups. If the mining stock you are following is making lower highs as gold is making new highs then you start to look for great entry points on the short side in case gold begins Read more [...]
SMB at Trader Expo in NYC
Feb 21st, 2009 | By ajames | Category: General Comments
SMB has been invited to present two free workshops at the International Traders Expo, which will be held at the New York Marriott Marquis Feb 21-24. We invite you to join us at these workshops to learn more about our proprietary trading methods and the skills necessary to become a consistently profitable active trader. I have included a summary of each workshop below. We hope to see you there!
The SMB Edge - The Skills Needed to Trade Successfully
Sun., Feb. 22, 10:00 am-10:30 am EST
If we took away all of your charts, could you make money? If the VIX was at ordinary levels, could you make money? We will discuss the development of trading skills so that you are not beholden to just your Read more [...]
Keep Track of Key Levels
Feb 19th, 2009 | By jtomasulo | Category: General Comments, Jeff Tomasulo's Blogs
In my last post, I stress the importance of stock selection. Easy money! Bella mentioned CAT in one of his posts. CAT at the key levels of 30 and 29, is a perfect example of easy money and stock selection on three separate days. Check the chart below.
All you needed to do was follow up, know the key levels and execute. It makes this job much easier when you are prepared and this type of preparation is easy. We are looking for an edge and keeping track of levels or inflection points in a stock is KEY at making easy money. I have a steno notebook that I keep next to me to put all this information in. Every weekend I go through this book, recall the trades that I executed Read more [...]
How Do You Do It?
Feb 18th, 2009 | By Bella | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
Whenever someone makes a good trade on our desk a common retort from another trader is "How do you do it?" I received two of these today from ALJ, who sits next to me. DE was the culprit. I was the protagonist. Profitable trades were my reward.
DE was in play today. They reported. DE opened down. It's first moves on the open were weak. DE was starting an intraday downtrend. And then all of a sudden at 31.75 some bids got whacked and DE exploded to the upside. DE exploded to 32.80ish. OK so now we have a level in DE, 31.75.
Later DE now in an uptrend fought the 33 level. This was Ali-Forman. The Thrilla at 33. There was huge volume done at 33. The offer would not lift. And then finally it Read more [...]
The Right Trade For Today (February 17th)
Feb 18th, 2009 | By sspencer | Category: Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs, Trading Theory
Part of the training the traders on our NYC trading desk receive is instruction on the trading setups that offer the greatest statistical significance for In Play stocks. What is not part of our formal training is the most statistically significant trades for specific kinds of "trading days". Usually, I give a quick comment at our AM Meeting as to how the day is setting up but this important topic to date has not been part of our formal training. That is soon to change.
Here is a quick preview of the day's trading setup based on price action from this AM and the prior two trading days. On Thursday we had a powerful bounce from the 81 level on the SPYs. On Friday we saw powerful selling Read more [...]
Easy Street- CAT
Feb 17th, 2009 | By Bella | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
UConn lost to Pitt last night. ARod was to hold another press conference. For a UConn and Yankees fan there were a lot of distractions today. BTW what is Boli? Also we had President Obama signing the stimulus bill. We had the market open down 3%. GS finished down 11.25. You know just another day at the office.
89.80 was the level in GS today. GS could not trade below it even when the market showed further weakness. And the moves off of 89.80 were strong. This level wasn't just holding it was paying off. 50c, 75c chops off of the 89.50 level were offered on multiple occasions. Finally GS violated the 89.80 and tanked.
GS is funny. Most days it can be the strongest financial. Most days it Read more [...]





