Traders,
I hope you’re all enjoying your weekend, especially after the craziness of Friday. And as I’ve been discussing in recent IA meetings, until the major indexes were below their 10 and 20-day SMAs, I was selectively biased long and short. However, after Friday’s close with SPY below the uptrend support and the 10 and 20-day moving averages, along with QQQ, IWM, MDY, and RSP, that’s no longer the case.
But, and it’s a big but, in a headline-driven tape where a single Trump tweet or breaking China-related news can come at a moment’s notice, it’s important not to develop a perma bear or bull bias. So, as always, I’ll let the charts and price action guide me, and remain ready to flip biases.
So, with what is currently in front of me, and as things were left on a news front on Friday, here is what I am looking at:
Lower High / Pops to Short in IREN: Textbook gap and fade on Friday, helped by market weakness, after an exceptional run and RSI in overbought territory. Going forward, barring major news or a catalyst, I’d be looking for pops into $60 – $65 and resistance to begin to firm up intraday. Certainly not something, and it goes for Quantum, too, that I am looking to chase weakness in. Instead, I am seeking failed follow-through to the upside and for resistance to confirm and establish itself. So, short failed follow-through to the upside, cover into primary support zones, and maintain a core position as long as weakness holds and a downtrend is not broken.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Lower High / Pops to Short in RGTI (Quantum Names): Extremely similar plan. But important to note the relative strength it had on Friday. Given how crowded it is, as I mentioned in Thursday’s IA meeting, I found it hard to believe this would just unravel intraday. So, for this week, I see $46 as primary resistance zone 1 and $48 resistance zone 2. Ideally, I’d like to see a push toward $46 and a sharp fail. In that case, I’d look for a short against HOD. If we display notable weakness intraday, I’d be looking to size up on a hold sub $44, with $42 support as target 1 to lighten up and trade around a core. The main change of character for me would be a hold sub $42, last week’s support.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Pops to Short in HUT / HIVE: Same theme as IREN, and I’d be looking for similar action to initiate a position. In HUT, for example, I’d be focused on any recovery attempt toward $45 – $47 and the 2-day VWAP. If that’s met with selling pressure and failure to reclaim 2-day VWAP, I’d look for a short position entry. Similarly, in HIVE, if it can push toward $7+ and fail to reclaim its multi-day VWAP, I’d look for a short position. Of course, like RGTI and IREN, I’d also need to see relative weakness and a shift in character and momentum as it relates to its price action before the breakdown on Friday.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Failed Follow Through in PL: Lovely break of its daily highs range on Friday and of its 5-day, finding support on the close near its 10-day. Like the above, I’d like to see failed follow-through on a push toward $15 KL from Friday. If overhead resistance confirms, the market remains weak, and PL displays relative weakness, I’d focus on a short against the HOD, targeting a move toward its 20-day to start, with a VWAP trail.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Resistance Short in RKLB: One of the market’s strongest names YTD, and one I’ve been bullish on, had a significant sell-the-news play out Friday. Of course, helped mainly by the market’s weakness. Nonetheless, that creates substantial overhead now. For a short, I’d love to see this push back toward $66 – $68 and fail to hold above VWAP. On weakness and consecutive lower highs, I’d short against either the HOD or previous lower high on the 5-minute, depending on the intraday setup.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
SPY / QQQ / VXX: Regarding the overall market, it depends on whether news comes out on Sunday and if we are gapping higher or lower for Monday. So, whilst it’s hard to pre-plan specific trades, the type of market we’re entering, at least in the short term, warrants key adjustments.
With VXX rising and SPY’s range opening on Friday, marking its highest volume day in six months, it becomes a trader’s environment and a move-to-move climate. Totally different from what we’ve been in: a swing trader’s market. So, now it’s time to review April’s action and playbooks, examine top-performing trades, and, if we remain in an unresolved, headline-driven tape for a few more days or weeks, implement the necessary adjustments.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.