Traders,
Given the geopolitical developments over the weekend, this watchlist will differ from prior ones. With the situation in the Middle East developing rapidly, it’s difficult to form a bias right now… as one development or post on X could completely change the narrative.
I’ll have a core group of names I’ll focus on as trading vehicles.
Starting off with the obvious…
Small-Cap Oil Stocks: Each trader is different. For me, when we’ve had similar events that impact oil prices and sentiment, my immediate go-to is often small-cap oil stocks. Why? These small-cap oil stocks have historically traded significantly higher than anticipated, providing fantastic range, liquidity, and opportunity. Of course, the outcome is often the same: once peak euphoria hits and failed follow-through occurs, they make for A+ short swings.
So, what’s the focus for me? I’ll primarily focus on BATL and INDO as the 2 small-cap oil names. Now, it’s difficult to predict too much, given the swift development so far over the weekend. But loosely, here is my focus. I’d imagine we’re going to get a major gap in BATL, which has setup favrtoable for a liquidity squeeze. I’m not focused on chasing strength. Rather, I’d look for the oil/energy sector to remain firm, and for BATL to retrace toward a prior resistance zone / possibly $ 7-ish and firm up. If that were to occur, I’d initially be focused on intraday longs. Alternatively, if we get a significant gap in oil, as expected, and give it back – perhaps due to developments – I’d be focused on aggressively shorting any failed follow-through pops or intraday blow-offs in BATL / INDO.
Alternatively, and ideally, BATL and several other small-cap oil names trap and reclaim VWAP, closing the day near HOD, and set up a multi-day move. Open-minded and willing to scalp long, but the edge for me will be a backside short once the euphoria peaks. Let’s see what develops on Sunday / Morning morning.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Surprising Strength in Bitcoin: Something noteworthy over the weekend to me has been Bitcoin’s strength so far. It’s the first time in a while that I have noticed Bitcoin reclaiming and exhibiting strength amid a negative catalyst. That’s noteworthy.
If Bitcoin continues to hold up well on Monday and clears $68k and Friday’s high thereafter, I’d look to establish an initial long in IBIT. If IBIT thereafter reclaims and builds above its 20-day SMA, I’d add to the position, against the LOD / 10-day SMA, and hold a core for a multi-day / week swing.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Higher-Low / Base in IGV: As I mentioned during Thursday’s meeting, I’m looking for a base and higher-low confirmation in IGV. So far, it’s in the works, with Friday’s action constructive. Given the weekend developments, if IGV were to gap lower and then reclaim $80 and hold, that might be enough to get me to enter long against the LOD. Thereafter, or alternatively, similar to my plan for IBIT, if it reclaims Friday’s high, I’ll add or enter long. The 20-day SMA reclaim-and-hold would also serve as an additional add spot for me.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Additional Names on Watch:
GLD: Ideally, we get a significant gap higher in GLD, closer toward $500, major resistance from 1/29. Nothing for me to do on the front side, but if we re-test key levels from that day and fail to follow through, I’d look for an intraday short. If we remain weak on the day and close near lows, I’d hold a core for a multi-day move.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
EWY: Best trade of last week for me on the short side on Thursday. Solid reclaim on Friday and support near the 5-day SMA. To get interested again, I would want to see a multi-day base build and support break, or an extension from the 5-day SMA.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.