Traders,
As always, I look forward to sharing my Watchlist with you for the upcoming week. Friendly reminder that it is a shortened week, with the markets closed on Friday, July 3.
Some key economic data for the upcoming week include Chicago PMI, JOLTS, and CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday; ADP NF Employment Change on Wednesday; and NF Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.
This week’s watchlist will be a bit briefer than usual, as the opportunity set has narrowed slightly and the market regime may have shifted. As a result, one must adapt. As I went over at great length in my recent IA meeting, when environments change, one has to adapt. Specifically, I am placing enormous pressure on stock selection right now. Less is more, and well-defined setups with edge, along with correct risk allocation and hard-fought entries, are vital right now. One cannot continue to press in opportunities that worked well the last 3 months+ but no longer work (growth momo-breakouts for example), and expect to see the same results.
Alright, some names on watch for the upcoming week:
Consolidation Breakdown in SPCX: A fantastic base has been built in SpaceX near its IPO opening at $150 over the last four days. 150 has unsurprisingly developed into a major area of support and potential breakdown level, with ~160 firming as resistance. As always, I’d like to see SPCX show some rel. weakness, which in itself would be a change of character over the last few days. I’d also like to see the stock hold below 150, with the level flipping to resistance rather than support. If that materializes, I’d look for an intraday setup to position short intraday, targeting some decent unwind as long as the trend remains intact intraday.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Pops to Short in SOXL: If rotation continues and follows on from Friday, I’d be looking to SOXL as one of my primary trading vehicles. Unless we get a lengthy intraday consolidation near LOD or Friday’s low and breakdown, it’s not something I’ll be chasing weakness on. Rather, I’ll be looking for failed follow-through in sector heavyweights near key levels from Friday, and reacting in SOXL if we get a lower high confirmed on a higher timeframe (30min).
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Pops to Short in ILLR: This caught many offside on day 1, and held up alright on day 2. I won’t rush to short this on day 3+, however, if it swipes up and catches some swing shorts off guard and we get a major exchange, I’d look for an entry against the HOD if it fails to follow through intraday, targeting a move back toward 4, sub 4 on the short side.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Continuation in CCXI: Fantastic breakout and follow-through on Friday, after a multi-day hold following the catalyst. On a higher timeframe, I’m watching the name for dips to hold closer to multi-day VWAP / higher-lows to develop on the 30min – 1-hourly chart to add size. As long as the trend holds, I’ll trail, whilst locking some profits on intraday extensions above VWAP.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
The number of trades I take doesn’t determine the payout in trading; rather, it is the quality of the trades I take. That’s why, when the market appears to shift, I’d rather focus on slowing things down and adapting, as opposed to forcing bigger-picture ideas. My focus for the upcoming week will be what has already been stated above, and at great length in my IA meeting, along with a move2move mindset whilst the range remains large and the main benchmarks remain in a choppy range too.