Teaching a prop trader secrets on technical analysis (that you will not find anywhere else)

In this video, watch Mike Bellafiore teach a prop trader secrets on technical analysis, that you will not find anywhere else. Mike works one-on-one with a trader teaching him technical analysis secrets to make a winning technical trade. Let’s get to work on sharing these important trading lessons so you can grow your trading account.

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in this video watch me teach a prop
trader secrets
on technical analysis that you will not
find anywhere else
hi i’m mike bellafiore co-founder of smb
capital and we’re a proprietary trading
firm located in midtown manhattan
and i’m also the author of the trading
classic one good trade and the playbook
in this video i work one-on-one with the
trader teaching him
technical analysis secrets to make a
technical trade let’s get to work on
sharing these important
trading lessons so you can grow your
trading account
okay so this is a flag break across
multiple time frames that’s setting up
on the 1
5 15 minute there’s a daily flag that’s
taking place
it’s in a hot sector and the goal is to
be swinging half of this
it’s on nio in the ev sector and this is
taking place on 8 24
2020 to 8 26 2020
so game planning there are two positions
to take on this
and the first is taking the day one flag
that we will go over
that is a 1 5 15 minute multiple time
frame flag
that’s holding up holding above key
daily resistance that has now become
support at 1460 and the goal for this is
as soon as it begins to work because we
have that bigger idea in mind
is to send half of it to the swing
account and use the other half on the
to create some cash flow behind it so
this multiple time frame flag
is actually an a plus set up for me
but the swing portion of it is something
that i’m working into my playbook
it’s common on our desk for traders to
have a day trading account
and also a swing account and what’s
helpful to a lot of the traders is them
for them to day trade in their day
trading account
and then take their swing trades and put
them in another account
so they’re not watching tick by tick
like they are for their day trading
and they’re trading that swing trade
differently uniquely with its own set of
entries and exits and variables
and also easier for them to
keep stats in this separate account
for their swing trades and it could be
entirely possible that you’re
really good at day trading but not so
good at swing trading it can be entirely
probable that maybe you’re not a good
day trader but you’re really good in
your swing trading
maybe it’s the case that for a lot of
guys you’re you’re good at both
and your day trades are really setting
awesome opportunities for swing trades
that you want to capitalize on
the second position comes on day two and
it is also that same
one five 15-minute multiple time frame
flag that
is an a-plus setup for me and again the
only difference between this day two
is that it’s taking place right at the
open and again this is something i’m
into my playbook i’m one who
in the past has sit out typically the
first 15 to 30 minutes
but if there’s these bigger ideas in
mind where you might never get those
prices again
and you’re playing for that you know
bigger idea
sometimes if that setup comes around you
have no other option but to take it
right at the open
so that’s kind of what i’m working on
right now it might only happen for me
you know a few times per month but still
something really good to have in your
arsenal and
again we still have half in our swing
account and we do the same thing with
this position
we send half of this into our swing
account and use the other half on the
to create some cash flow so basically
they’re the same setup with the same
idea in mind
and you know sticking half of it into
your swing account
and we have some really good prices vix
you know the volatility index the
opening print was 22
and if this wasn’t more of a sector play
evie it is
um with a big daily breakout volatility
being relatively low compared to prior
months is something to really take note
um this month i have been quicker to
take off some risk at the first turn
i see because of volatility being a
little bit lower and you know moves not
showing continuation all the time but
again this is a very hot sector
it’s a big daily breakout there’s a lot
of volume behind it
so it’s a little bit different yeah but
22 vix is still higher than
it’s been for most of the last six years
you know we were between
12 and 15 for most of the last five
years so
while volatility is 22 which is a little
bit lower than it has been of late
overall it’s still pretty high yeah
relative to the last couple months we’re
not getting those
big time moves all the time maybe
there’s less opportunity or less
you know positions that we’re getting
those moves but still volatility
over the last few years we really can’t
complain about it
yeah and i love you putting in what
volatility was
in your playbook that’s an excellent
and i like how you’re pointing out that
this is in a really really hot sector
which may override what volatility is
overall for our reading so
vixx could be 17
it could be 15 but because this is in a
really hot sector
the ev space we could still have
lots of movement more movement volatile
could still follow through better
than a large cap stock and the reason
why we’re
putting volatility in at the beginning
of this particular trade
is to see how we’re doing when
is at certain levels when volatility is
between 12 and 15
trading is going to be different than
when volatility is
25 and above correct and because of that
um i think it’s important to know where
the leader is in the ev
sector and of course that is tesla um so
it’s important to have it on your radar
make sure you have it pulled up um when
some of these other ev names are
you know in place so it can be whatever
sector whatever the head of the snake is
you want to be keeping an eye on it
because in this case i would say
keeping an eye on tesla is almost more
important than you know
maybe what the overall market is doing
it’s good to have you know a good
reading of both though
completely agree in a hot sector what’s
the leading stock how’s the leading
stock doing
that’s going to be more important than
how the overall market is doing
excellent point you’re making and then
on day two
it pushed at the open this is tesla and
that may have helped
nio break out right at the open as well
kind of fuel that fire
and all that is is simply more
confirmation if you want to learn three
real world setups that our traders use
including the simple setup that we teach
all of our new traders and the setup
that turned one of our traders into a
seven figure big money earner
check out the free webinar that we’re
currently running just go ahead and
click the link that should be appearing
right now at the top right hand corner
of your screen
that’s going to open up this free
registration page in the new window
so don’t worry you’re not going to lose
this video you’re going to learn more
in a couple of hours from this trading
workshop than from
years of online education so the
fundamentals nio limited
um they design and develop high
performance electric vehicles
has been leading the pack in eevee
breaking out to new all-time highs and
has a split coming up at the end of the
very soon the next couple days um eevee
names are
certainly in play there’s a technical
um it’s a daily flag it’s you know a
setup that i’m very comfortable with
and there’s eager people who miss tesla
looking for alternatives you know people
who really didn’t capture the meat of
the move on tesla they’re looking at
some of these alternatives
and we’re going to go over at the end
how to kind of scan for those or screen
for those at night
so it’s in a hot sector there’s a
technical breakout across multiple
multiple time frames high institutional
relatively high short flow and you know
that can
equal fuel to the fire it doesn’t always
need to be
you know a simple independent news
catalyst and we really didn’t
from what i came across we really didn’t
have that on
nioh what you mean by that is that
there can be a technical breakout that
is the catalyst
or or there can be a news catalyst
in of itself that can be the catalyst it
doesn’t always have to be the news
for something to be super in play it can
just be that there’s a lot of buying
that’s come in
our bowl is high volume is
is high stock is
is acting well intraday
it’s holding above you up nicely it’s
its time frames really really solidly
and that can get you to be interested in
a particular stock
um so some statistics on nio the daily
volume is typically around 123 million
areval this is current volume at the
time compared to its past
at the time of the reading it was 3.14
at the time of the positions
these flag breaks it was a lot higher
than that i wasn’t able to capture it
but it was five plus
for sure um atr 0.98
this is kind of how far we can maybe
expect a stock to go
but if of course if the arvol is
elevated you know over one
we might get multiple atrs short float
12 relatively high it’s been growing so
you know we have some shorts who
are underwater um the float is 838
million it’s not a low float stock this
is something that you know you might be
able to
feel pretty comfortable if you get some
good prices holding this overnight
institutional ownership this is
important to note it’s relatively high
at 45 percent
and what this tells me is a lot of these
institutions from my understanding they
play on bigger time frames
bigger time horizons so if you see
something maybe like a one minute flag
taking place
but if you zoom out to you know the five
minute the 15 minute the hourly
and the daily maybe and it doesn’t look
so hot it’s very overextended you want
to be really careful
at least from my experience to not
really run after those
you know one minute breakouts and it’s
that’s all it really provides me with
you know there’s big money involved in
and they might be looking at some bigger
time frames than the typical person
okay so we get into the daily and this
is something i’ve been stocking for the
last couple weeks it’s a very nice setup
of course in a very hot sector and we
have about a month of consolidation
we are building some higher lows but on
relatively lower volume
and we’re getting ready for something
special it’s built up
we have longs and shorts duking it out
and that’s kind of what consolidation is
all about
we have you know we have bulls and we
have bears fighting it out
and one side is going to win it’s either
going to be a breakout or a breakdown
and that’s kind of the timing point
that’s where you know
things get pretty exciting and we could
kind of see that we have this high
volume day
on this breakdown down below i show it
with shorts thinking
hey maybe this is the top they’re
getting involved and they’re risking off
this high
you know there’s a good possibility some
bigger time frame players maybe took
this breakdown
and they’re risking off this high so
you know if we consolidate build some
higher lows and then break over that
well a lot of them are going to be
cutting you know they’re going to be
forced to pay up we’re going to have a
lot of longs looking at this getting
involved as well we see an increase in
volume starting to come in when we do
build some higher lows and when we break
and when we get above 1469
the day prior this level right here and
hold up the 9 ema that green line
is creeping underneath showing this is
not as extended as you know maybe some
people think and again there’s a high
institutional ownership behind it
and i use a 90ma as a reference point
across multiple time frames to determine
whether or not something needs to first
reset itself
and i also like that the previous day
low at 1362
right here and right here is only about
a dollar
away so many bigger time frame players
will risk off this you know the previous
day low and because it is so close
the risk to reward makes sense for them
to participate so there’s going to be
more market participants
when this does break out that’ll bring
in more volume
more people are looking at it that’s all
it is
but it is important good wedge pattern
on the daily chart
it does a nice job holding over the nine
ema which you’re looking at you know it
gives you
a gives you a really tight
area that you can see who the winners
or who the losers are for this
the trade and the other thing i like is
that what’s the ema doing
it’s heading higher yeah it’s sloping up
yeah that’s a bull sign okay so this is
the five minute and the 15 minute
on day one of this breakout we’re gonna
see that there’s kind of that opening
again for the most part i’m sitting out
that especially when it’s not very clear
it breaks out you know you could get
some type of momentum play in there
that’s not really me
it’s pretty hard to fight for price
there we pull back in
and i know quite quite a few people who
are buying these dips
one thing that strikes me as
should be next or should have come
and maybe you’re going to talk about a
little bit later is
a chart of how tesla has done
recently you know so we’re saying
the tesla’s been really strong
it’s been it’s been super strong we’ve
we’ve said hey there’s been this this
kind of weird catalyst
of the stock is going to split tesla’s
going to split it’s going to split
august 31st and it’s run up
a bunch since they announced that it
hasn’t just been strong and hasn’t just
up i mean it’s it’s vertical it’s
it’s i don’t want to say it’s parabolic
but it’s near parabolic i mean it’s
it’s been unusually strong unusually
steep to the upside
and to get a picture of that next to neo
strikes me as i love your logic which is
the people that miss tesla may seek
second and third tier stocks to
add exposure to the ev sector
perfect sense spot on 100 correct
great thinking and so
to have that picture of how much tesla
has run
up and for you to include that on your
places in your mind when that does break
when it’s holding up on the 1-5 the 15
the 30-minute charts
whatever it is that you use for multiple
time frames and here you’re using the
one the 5 the 15.
other people may expand that to the 30
maybe to the 60 minute there’s no right
answer to that it’s
that’s a personal preference that’s
going to make me
way more way more optimistic
that if i see something holding up the
one the five the 15
then i ought to buy it and it’s going to
work because of what
because of how how well tesla traded
because of how steep it is
and to be specific about what that
picture looks like
does that make sense yeah i’ll
definitely add that down the road and
the next idea that’s similar
okay so i’m taking the flag break at
1471 with risk off 1464.
and this is an a plus setup for me again
it’s that 1 5
15 minute it’s a little bit extended on
the hourly and that is something i’m
looking at as well
but this is a pretty good setup for me
this is an a quality setup and it’s also
above key daily resistance at 1460.
it was kind of that line in the sand we
could kind of see we broke down from
there earlier
we got back above you know quite a few
people are underwater
and that you know that daily resistance
has now become new support and it’s
holding quite nicely
so nice tight risk that we’re able to
take on this and you know i’m fine with
hitting out of this
if it doesn’t want to work out right
there maybe it works out later
but you can see that the goal is to sell
of half of my position on the first turn
um that’s something again i’ve been
doing a lot this month i’ve been
pretty aggressive with taking profits
you know it’s helped out this month to
say the least
and the other half of this position is
going into that swing account
with that bigger idea in mind again it’s
in a hot sector
tesla is squeezing the living daylight
out of everyone short the splits coming
it’s breaking out on the daily you know
this is a really nice setup and it’s
holding up into the close
so throw half into that swing account um
and we could bring down that risk to
1460 because it is that key level
um that’s taking place on the daily
so then sell the last two thirds prior
to 350 when this breakout stops
um again holding the other half in my
swing account with risk off
1459. so kind of right before that
or right before that market imbalance i
think it was a selling balance on the
maybe you know just get out of the
position it has this breakout it’s not
really showing continuation
and again we’re still holding half in
that swing account
um so you know get out of the remainder
position that we’re holding
so then day two comes around and this is
the setup that i’m kind of working into
my playbook because of the time of day
it happens at
so take the flag break at 15 17. it was
something i was taking a look at but i
kind of
sat it out with risk off 1502
throw half into the swing account once
it opens up again we have
really good prices so we have half from
yesterday and now half from today
in that swing account from some really
good prices and there’s a good
possibility that we’ll never
you know in the next few days or at
least on this day we won’t see those
prices again
um so the half that i’m using on the day
i want to be piecing out on every reason
to sell
um usually i’m selling a third or a
and now i have half from yesterday and a
half from today in that swing account
with around a 1493 cost basis
um some really good prices this is where
you know
some some may argue that this is not the
right move and you know everybody has a
different time horizon and this is
something i’m working on
um but i think when we break down from
this five minute low we put in a lower
high and we’re starting to get heavy
um and some volume comes in to sell half
of the swing position on this
consolidation break
and the rest of this ring position is
with risk off 1640
um this kind of low right here
and this is a big two-point move it’s
two atrs i think the atr like i said was
98 cents
so this is basically a two atr move or
and again we had some nice size on it
you know we got some really good prices
we fought for price and
you know we weren’t risking a whole lot
so this is a relatively big move and
there’s nothing wrong
with locking in some maybe i don’t have
to lock in a half but you know that’s
something i’m gonna
work the kinks out of down the road and
then this is day three
and we could kind of see we’re forming
higher lows here from i think
from day two and then in pre-market
hours we kind of retest that level we
retest it at the open
and then we kind of get above 20 and you
know that is a big
important level it’s a whole dollar and
we kind of have this big slam
down and then you could kind of think
okay we get this big slam down but we
kind of hold up so
you know maybe this gets a lot of shorts
involved and maybe we could reclaim an
after hours and break out
but instead we break down and
so and the the goal is to sell all of
this when we break these higher lows
it’s basically a five-point move i
captured on relatively nice size
due to you know pretty tight stops the
first position had a seven
cent risk um when getting involved and
risking seven cents initially to capture
five points
on a good portion of the position is you
know nothing to complain about
so these are the variables of this setup
it’s in a hot sector you really couldn’t
ask for a better one right now
the ev sector tesla not only at all-time
not only does it have that split coming
up at the end of the month but it
it’s squeezing out everyone and a lot of
people miss the move on the long side
um so we’re in you know one of the best
sectors with one of the best
you know leaders in the space right now
are of all greater than three it had
that daily flag breakout
it also had flags throughout the day um
and that’s something i’m very
comfortable with
um there’s a playbook set up on day one
and i’m working on day two with this
plenty of liquidity tight one one cent
um i think this is kind of a quote from
one of your books bella
where somebody talks about there are
those spots where you know if you want
to buy unlimited
um this is you know one of those names
where you could almost buy unlimited you
insane volume you know good story behind
setting up on the daily setting up on
the day you know you can get in and out
exactly where you want on this name
volume moves in at both timing points
confirming thesis
there’s a clear level where i’m wrong
and that’s really important for
my style i need to know exactly where
i’m wrong and
if i want to put a hard stop there i can
put a hard stop and i can move out of
the way and then reset
and on both of these positions it had
exactly that
there’s a clear level this is also
important to the thesis and the context
behind it of where early longs have
stopped out
you know where maybe some people from
the retail point of view or you know
even other people as well
maybe ran after the name and then you
know bought it a little bit too high and
then it pulled back in they had to stop
out so there’s less overhead from
those longs and then also knowing where
shorts are stuck
across multiple time frames and where
they are risking it and where they are
is that timing point where i want to be
getting involved because
you should see immediate resolution and
you should see it you know push away
from that price rather quickly
and that’ll keep you know your mae
pretty low so you know if you go in
on one of these flag breaks and it works
right away you really shouldn’t go down
on the name a whole lot if any and that
is important to my style
yeah and i’ll just share that one of the
you talked about liquidity that there
being plenty of liquidity
one of the traders at the firm was
long more than 300 000 shares just to
sort of use a number
uh and just to give you something to
think about yeah now i want to go back
if we can go back to your intraday
a couple of things you want to have
so you’re saying basically this is
holding up on the one the five the 15
minute that’s my trade
yeah i need to see charts where the one
minute is holding up
where the five minute is holding up
where the 15 minute is holding up
and for you to be showing me where
you’re going to be entering
because the one the five and the 15
minute charts are holding up
yeah that makes sense and it makes sense
for your learning because
there’s a large difference between you
going through this exercise
and having done that work the one minute
held up this is what it looks like
the five minute held up this is what it
looks like
the 15 minute held up this is what it
looks like
and you put that together you go over it
you go over it again you’re visualizing
in your head
what you want to see for a one to five a
15 minute
flag hold next time you see that
setup it’s going to be so much easier
for you
because you have that picture in your
head yeah of the one the five the 15
all aligning uh as opposed to here which
is you
you don’t have that so that’s number one
the second thing is
for this particular trade particularly
two-day three-day trades
you need to have a chart that overlays
how neo is trading in conjunction with
is there something that you can learn
based on how neo should trade
based on the way tesla was trading
when tesla pulls in what does neo do
when tesla makes a new high what does
neo do
is there a lag between a new high and
and what neil will do are there clues to
how tesla’s trading
okay the head of the snake as you said
the leader
that can help you trade neo so you need
to overlay a chart
of that in here because you’re going to
see that kyle you’re going to see
certain commonalities between when there
something that’s real hot when there is
that head of the snake that’s real hot
and then the second tier and third tier
starks stocks
start to go and
you’ll you’ll be able to
add some some risk pretty easily
just based on what you’ve observed
as to how tesla trades first and then
how neil reacts
there’ll be some real easy money i mean
you’re talking it’ll be some real easy
money along the way some scalp some ads
that will will make this trade a good 20
more profitable just by doing that
yeah and i actually saw quite a few
people at the firm um
they were talking about how they were
buying these dips on nio
and you know maybe part of that is
because they were keeping maybe a little
bit of a closer eye on tesla
and you know seeing that it was holding
up and breaking out
so that is definitely something i need
to add to this playbook
okay so we’re on reading the tape and i
don’t have the tape on this i was in a
few other positions at the time
um but it’s kind of like any other flag
um maybe a little bit more powerful on
both setups that are working
shorts are being forced to cover at the
timing point on that lower high break of
every flag
and long’s paying up and that brings in
volume from both sides and
these flag breaks i’ve taken for the
last few years and
you know i it’s pretty clear what you
want to see you want to see that
breakout on big volume
and you want to see it get away from
that price really quickly and that is
kind of confirming that idea
um and on every single pull in you kind
of want them to be higher you know
building those higher lows and you know
they could be
slow they could be fast but they should
be on lower volume
um after breaking out followed by buyers
coming back in
you know every single breakout so on
every pull-in if there’s a lot of
you ever thought about building
something visual for yourself
to determine how strong the tape is
so all right i’m watching four or five
things at the same time i can’t watch
tick for tick can i use my technology
to give myself a visual map of
when this the tape is a lot stronger you
know for example we’ve talked about this
in the past
you can build a filter and it can tell
you the percentage of volume that’s done
on the offer
percentage of iron that’s done in the
bid and you know if the percentage of
volume that is done much more on the
offer does that give you an edge
uh and and that’s just that’s a that’s
an idea
for you but you should you should think
about using your technology skills
to grade how strong the tape is
overall and i would say on these you do
want to see that offer
a lot heavier than the bid on the
breakout so that is something
that i should you know add to a filter
or my tape
so that’s something i could certainly
add this week
and work on so how could i’ve done a
little bit better on this or i guess a
lot better
continue to playbook this setup until i
have a big enough sample size to
start taking it with a sense of comfort
i don’t like executing positions until i
have a playbook backing the setup
now the day one is a setup that i should
have taken it is
a playbook setup for me um and
kind of a reference to this is i used to
play baseball and it’s almost like
hopping on the mound and in a big game
you all of a sudden
you know decide to throw a knuckleball
when it’s not in your arsenal
i don’t really like executing positions
that i don’t have in my playbook as of
yet so that’s kind of what this exercise
is about
and that is why i’m adding this and you
know getting more sample size
until i’m more comfortable with it and
then i can take it you know pretty small
until i feel more comfortable what
position did you play in baseball
that was a picture yeah you know it’s so
interesting so my son
who’s seven is taking personal
pitching lessons and personal hitting
and you know as you know i pitched in
college and so
i i you know that’s that was a big part
what i did when i was a when i was a kid
i love your point about hey we’re just
trying to get better i i
am just struck by
some of the things that i did not do
when i was a pitcher that luke is being
taught to do
right now at seven and i mean the other
i was i was watching the lesson is these
30-minute lessons one-on-one
and they start by going over the
mechanics of throwing
and you and i will talk about this in
person because this is so insider
but there’s there’s literally something
that i did not do when i was a kid that
when i watch
lutz luke’s instructor teach him how to
get in a starting position for pitching
that i just literally can’t believe that
i never did
yeah i just can’t believe it and it
would have added
three miles an hour to my fastball if i
had done what luke is being taught to do
and so yeah i mean these things are
getting this stuff down is is super
important will make you a lot better
uh made me want to i literally i was
like i can’t believe i did not think of
that like
how could i possibly have left that out
so things like this really do matter
yeah i i totally agree with that
the last couple of years that i played
baseball in college i
you know started picking up things you
know i kind of started following bauer
on the reds or i guess he was on the
indians at the time
and he’s big into tech and you know
weighted balls and recording and
you know getting video and that is stuff
i wish i did a lot
earlier and now that you know i’m in the
market you know i’m kind of learning
from those mistakes kind of similar to
um with baseball you know wish we could
have done some of these things in the
past and you know now i’m able to
kind of bring that into the market and
work on that now 100 and i’d say that
too with my training
if i had my trainer when i was a kid
when i was playing that i have now i i
i gotta say i probably would have added
three four miles an hour maybe more uh
maybe three or four miles an hour and
and when i train with my trainer i’m
just like
i can’t believe that i didn’t know this
at the time
so anyway we’re always learning
um so to wrap this up i guess i have one
more slide after this but
continue to look at dailies every night
on finviz and see what sectors are
consolidating and setting up for the
bigger idea moves
these are names to be focusing on for
this type of you know swing
i kind of had a position similar to this
yesterday on amc i didn’t swing it but
it came from a bigger idea a lot of
shorts are underwater
consolidating on the daily so this is
really important to me and this is
something i actually really
you know like doing right before bed i
look forward to having this
a part of my arsenal down the road as
it’s really a subset
of an already a plus setup for me the
only difference is time of day
and swinging part of it i can still be
selective at the open
and i spoke with someone at the firm
about this but when there’s a playbook
set up
proper level to risk off of great
context of where early longs have
stopped out where shorts are stuck
and where they are risking with a bigger
idea in mind and it’s breaking out on
the daily
i need to take it and it is something i
will take down the road
you know that day two right at the open
now that i’ve seen it so many times and
i see it a lot on tech names you know
big tech names
you need to either take that setup or
you’re probably not going to get those
really good prices
later in the day so it is really
and maybe again it might only happen a
few times per month for me but you know
that’s still going to add to the bottom
and the final thing to know is you know
holding up a portion overnight has never
really been a part of my playbook
in a position i take maybe more than
once or twice per year
due to where i live it means waking up
at around three in the morning here in
even a little bit earlier as opposed to
five to six
when i move um to a different time zone
you’ve had to pass on this in your
playbook due to you know it ruining your
and how you perform the next day and
bell and i have talked about this a
little bit
um it’s going to be a lot different once
i move
but it is important to note you know i
there was a
part earlier in my career where i
thought you know i wanted to swing a lot
more names and
you know my time zone wasn’t really
conducive to that
and i noticed myself performing very
poorly the next day where it wasn’t even
worth it
and then just this final slide is um a
pre-market scan
i had or that i use and basically what
it’s telling me is that the 90ma on the
hourly is tucked up underneath it’s
up more than five percent in the last
five minutes and the second photo is a
scanning for ev names meeting the
criteria listed from the night prior
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* no relevant positions