Morning thoughts 2/16/11

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Good morning traders,

Word equity markets show a generally positive tone this morning.  Asia is up roughly a percent (Taiwan and South Korea are down, however) and Europe is up about half a percent.  S&P futures, Japan, and the UK made new 52 week highs overnight.

In currencies, the GBP is weak, with big moves in GBPCAD and GBPAUD.  AUD is generally strong, but smaller moves there.  US Dollar index stands basically unchanged, at the high end of its overnight range.

Treasury Futures are set to open flat to slightly higher.

Metals are flat overnight.

A little strength in energy overnight, with the products being much stronger than Crude.  This is what we have been talking about for many weeks — strength in the Crack is persistent.  Refiners tend to be less well hedged to the Crack than many other commodity stocks are to their underlying, so it is reasonable to expect this strength to carry through to individual refininers (VLS TSO WNR etc) on a swing trade basis.

New York softs are strong in early trading, with Cotton putting in yet another impressive session.  The exception here is Coffee which is off slightly this morning.

Chicago grains had very weak closes yesterday.  Watch for potential followthrough today.  In the bigger picture, these markets have intact uptrends, but volatility is to be expected here.

Essentially the same setup as previous days in the broad market.  Expect more tight ranges.  1325 held as support yesterday, and 1330 has established itself overnight as key inflection for today.  Do not fade strength today, and expect the pattern of “every dip is bought” to be in play until you clearly see otherwise.  It is also worth noting that, although the broad market has been unimpressive recently, there has been good play in individual names.  Trade accordingly.

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