Trader’s
I hope you’ve all had a wonderful weekend!
First off, regarding adaptations to style and strategy in the market, similar to last week, please go back and listen to my most recent Inside Access meeting, where I outline what is working best for other traders and me on the desk in the current environment. Those implementations remain relevant and are what I am focusing on right now, along with broader market thoughts.
Alright, the biggest event for me, for the upcoming week, is the Anthropic IPO – scheduled to price on Wednesday and begin trading on Thursday. The ANT IPO, as of right now, is where most of my attention, focus, prep, and risk will be this week. In my most recent IA meeting, I outlined several patterns and strategies that are most prevalent for me in day 1 IPO trading. That’s what I’ll focus on.
Here’s a headline list of several of those patterns/strategies:
- The Opening Print
- The Opening Drive
- The Opening Range Break
- Late Afternoon Consolidation Breakout and O/N Continuation
- Opening Print Breakdown Momentum Scalp
Ok, now onto some specific plans and names on watch for the first half of the week, ahead of the IPO on Thursday:
SMCI: If the sector / overall AI trade doesn’t get bought up / catch a bid prior to the IPO on Thursday, one of the names on my radar for a short is SMCI. It’s spent the prior 2 days holding near the low end of its daily range, with 26 acting as the breakdown spot. I’ll be watching for an intraday momentum breakdown short through that level.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Memory, 2-Side Tape
MU: If we get a bid across memory, MU stands out most to me. It’s reclaimed its 200-day, 10-day, and 5-day… which are all coiled and converged at the same price. If there’s strength in the basket and MU is holding above Friday’s high, I will be looking for intraday continuation/breakout patterns.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
SNDK: On the flip side, if we see further weakness and failed follow-through, SNDK will be on my radar for an intraday short. Its technical positioning is weaker than MU, and it failed to reclaim its 10-day on Friday. A break below Friday’s low could set up a higher-timeframe consolidation breakdown, opening the door for a potential new leg lower.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
NVDA: Another 2-sided tape and a great trading vehicle with range, barring any major headline or development before its upcoming report. In that regard, it’s a scalping vehicle for me. Any flush 160-158 support that reclaims and firms up, and I will then look for intraday long continuation patterns. Any extensions to the upside into possible overhead 170-175, and I would look for failed follow-through and an intraday short. Both scenarios are only relevant for Monday-Tuesday trading, before the company reports.
P.S. NVIDIA reports on Tuesday after the bell!
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
AAOI: Further weakness in the basket could set up a higher-timeframe breakdown below last week’s low in AAOI, setting up an intraday short opp. On the flip side, however, if we break below Friday / last week’s low and immediately reclaim, with better internals than Friday and a bid building in the basket and broader tech, I’ll look for a long intraday i.e., the undercut long pattern intraday.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Now, unless something really sets up well, or a major headline breaks, much of the focus, risk, and attention, as already mentioned, will be reserved for the IPO on Thursday.
Trade well, see you next week!