Archive for November 2008

End of the Month Review

Nov 30th, 2008 | By | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
I love stats. One of my favorite books is MoneyBall. Presently I am hooked on the wOBA that Rob Neyer has been blogging about. When I read rumors about the Yanks getting Sabathia or Burnett or Lowe I immediately check their important stats, such as their WHIP and strikeouts per innings. For me the idea of being able to quantify future success based upon past stats is entertaining. Obviously I am not concerned with my WHIP. For me, as a trader, I am concerned with my win rate, the stocks I trade well, the stocks with which I struggle, most profitable time period, etc. This helps me eliminate certain trades and stocks. And Read more [...]

Why I Trade on Black Friday

Nov 28th, 2008 | By | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
There were very few on the train to work this AM. The volume is very light on the day after Thanksgiving. Probably 80 percent of traders take today off. Why did I trade today? Back in the day two of the best days I have had trading were on Black Friday. During the Internet Boom I walked in up close to 50k because of small overnight positions in EBAY and YHOO. The previous year I was up huge again on the Open from overnights. I will never forget these trading days. I don't want to miss another of those days. Overall I just don't like missing trading days. What happens today will help us make money tomorrow. Seeing Read more [...]

How To Combat Overtrading!

Nov 27th, 2008 | By | Category: General Comments
As I sit here the night before Thanksgiving, I am reflecting on my trading over the past couple of weeks. I have realized that one major flaw has seeped into my trading. This money eating flaw is over-trading. I have been trading for close to 15 years and it amazes me that this bad habit continues to rear its ugly head. For me it is most prevalent when the market is extremely volatile or immediately after the volatility subsides. There are many reasons why we over trade, especially in this type of market. When the market rallies 400 points, you feel like you should be making more money than you are, so you force trades. The volatility Read more [...]


Nov 25th, 2008 | By | Category: General Comments, Steven Spencer (Steve's) Blogs
RIMM is about 70% from its high.  It seems real cheap based on next year earnings projection of $4.50 per share.  But the price action indicates that noone believes those estimates.  There are probably a lot of people betting that RIMM will have trouble matching this years $3.50 per share.  So perhaps RIMM will have one more down leg. RIMM was very weak today trading down 8% on a day the NASDAQ was basically flat.  I will trade RIMM tomorrow initially on the short side.  The safest entry point will be around 42.30.  If you look at the chart you can see after the initial downmove in the morning there was resistance between Read more [...]

Patiently Waiting in the Wrong Stock

Nov 25th, 2008 | By | Category: Gilbert Mendez's (Gman's) Blogs
Yesterday was a hard day for me. I performed well, though I traded lightly and found it difficult to trade the market in the middle of the day. I am normally the type of trader that can sit there and trade profitably all day long. I make my adjustments so I can trade profitably during the middle of the day while I'm gathering information that I can use for the last hour of trading. But yesterday was different. I traded quite well C in premarket and the Open. And contemporaneously I was watching the SPYs as a market indicator. Around 11:30 am C stopped moving enough for me so I turned my full attention to the SPYs. The market Read more [...]

Comparing Tomorrow with Today

Nov 24th, 2008 | By | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
We haven't seen too many days where offers were paid like today in the past year. I mean that was just amazing. The buying in GS, the buying in AAPL. The explosiveness of the moves. How hard it was to get hit on the bid. Where did this buying come from? I would say today was strong but that would not add much value. I would say that GS was strong. And APPL was strong but that is about as useful as stating that the sky is blue. So what do we take away from today? The buying. The buying. The buying. The way the stocks were bought. The way the stocks moved. How explosive the upmoves were. How hard it was to get hit Read more [...]

Risk: SO Not Just A Game

Nov 24th, 2008 | By | Category: General Comments
During a good film session today with a senior trader I got to get a clear look at how quickly I lose control of my risk and put my trading day in complete jeopardy. The film was from Thursday of last week when I was daytrading SRS (the real-estate ultrashort ETF) actively. To give you an idea of how the stock trades, it probably finished the day up near 47 points with a high of $269. I started trading the stock with 100 shares, which is fine considering the easy three-to-seven-point moves the stock will make according to decent future movement. At other points the stock will offer ten-point swings within minutes if the futures Read more [...]

Sunday Thoughts

Nov 23rd, 2008 | By | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
At the office doing a few things with Steve, GMan, and Charlie. We are gonna watch some film at 3:15 with a few traders. We are putting together some new materials for Advanced Training and reworking one our websites. I am done with most of my part of that work. So now I starting to think about next week. And I do this every Sunday before the start of a week. So I just wanted to share some things that I am thinking about that will affect next week. On Friday GS and AAPL did not trade very well into the Close. They were kinda weak into the end of the bounce. And the reason for this might be what Steve blogged about earlier Read more [...]