I read a statistic several years ago that the majority of what traders call “breakouts” fail. For this very reason there are algorithmic trading programs that fade breakouts. And there are some manual traders who love to fade all breakouts as well. There are many others who like to load up in the direction of the breakout 100% of the … Read More
Real Companies Get Bought When They Gap Down… Except for UPS
If you sit near me on our trading desk you have heard me say, “In a strong market real companies get bought.” What I mean is when a real company gaps down, in a strong market, it is likely to find a big buyer and find a way to trade higher. But then there was UPS on Friday. This was … Read More
A Quant Test on a Trading Thesis
Hi Mike, I was halfway through typing my question when I remembered a blog post similar to my original question: http://www.smbtraining.com/blog/how-do-you-determine-how-far-stock-can-move I was wondering if you’ve found any statistical information by back-testing the above since then. For me personally, I first find important support/resistance levels on a stock & after that do I then consider the likelihood of those support/resistance … Read More
The Price Spike Fade Trade
I’m writing this post for one of the most gracious traders on my desk who should be in more of these plays, SWANG (also a character in The PlayBook). He is a terrific tape reader, scalper, and intraday trader. I can see him doubling his P&L by mastering this trade. I made a Price Spike Fade Trade in PAY yesterday … Read More
How Do I Stay Big for the Real Move?
Dear Bella, I can not wait for The Playbook! I started “eating” everything on the SMB Blog six months ago and went though key haha moments thanks to what I learnt, which suddenly made me a lot more profitable (kind of wasted 2 years with useless teachers). So I started to build a playbook ( my Iphoto app became full … Read More
Should I Run My Trading Strategy Live?
Hi Bella, I was in the same position for most of last year and early this year, trying to work out what it is I need to be before I could consider myself as a solid trader. Now I find myself in another mental predicament. Which is when do you start believing that as a trader you have found the … Read More
Trade Review: $LINE
You can be better tomorrow than you are today! Mike Bellafiore The PlayBook One Good Trade No relevant positions
Muscle Memory and Patience II–Trading $AAPL
In my previous post on stock “muscle memory” I discussed the three types of MM. I want to revisit the topic and see how we used the same concept while tracking AAPL’s price action for the past few weeks. On June 12th AAPL traded below 435 after not breaching that level for several weeks. After a few days of consolidation … Read More