Trader’s
I hope you’ve all had a fantastic weekend!
I won’t repeat myself this week, as over the past couple of weeks+ in my Inside Access meetings, I’ve spent a lot of time outlining the current market environment, including relevant styles, adjustments made, and the best-suited strategies for the current market environment. So, if you missed any of those discussions, go back and check out my recent IA meetings, or look back at some of my recent Watch Lists to get a sense of the changes discussed.
Alright, let’s get right into it. Here’s what I am watching out the gate for the week ahead:
QQQ: Of course, given the environment, I’ll be heavily focused on the overall market and key levels. QQQs, during periods like this, is a go-to trading vehicle for me, for trend trading or mean reversions in the market.
After Thursday’s sell-off and Friday’s unsurprising inside day, I’m looking for the range to open back up and join the trend.
A couple of scenarios and key levels I will be watching here: First, if QQQ reclaims the 2-day VWAP and holds above 662+ (multi-day resistance), I’ll look for long scalps if momentum holds. I’ll also watch relative strength versus other sectors for signs of potential short-term rotation. I’d also look for individual oversold tech mega-caps displaying outlier strength to trend trade as well. Along with that scenario, if strength builds and we rally toward the declining 5-day SMA, I’d be hands-off and either wait for a pullback and higher-low to rejoin the trend, or look for failed follow-through short scalps, depending on the bounce’s price action.
Then, instead, if QQQs bases and turns lower, I’d first be thinking about Friday’s low. If we hold sub 654 and VWAP intraday, I’d look for short scalps in rel. weak names within the sector. After that, 2 big levels to watch are Thursday’s low around 647 and the overnight low near 639. For the bulls/dip-buyers, those are the key levels that need to hold.
But the ideal scenario would be if we either push into that level swiftly and immediately V-recover to reclaim key intraday levels or VWAP, or if we break that area below, wash out sharply, and then reclaim. So ultimately, the A+ scenario would be one more round of panic selling/gap lower, to set up an A+ bounce in tech.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Along with QQQ, I’ll also be paying close attention to key levels in AI-related sector ETFs, such as:
DRAM: Major support now near 38.5, 38. Resistance near 40.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
SOXL: Support at 43.5 and 42, with resistance near 50.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
A few individual names on watch for me:
MRVL: Closed in the middle of its 2-day range on Friday. Friday’s high near 146 is a potential short-term turning point. If we hold above, I’d look for long scalps. Dips into 140 – 138 need to hold for any potential for a bounce, imo. Alternatively, a break and hold below Friday’s low near 136 could set up one final panic lower before the potential A+ bounce shapes up.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
INTC: As with the names above, it seems likely to me that the low came in during Thursday’s overnight session. I’ll be watching INTC on dips into 56-55 to see if it finds support at Friday’s support levels for a reactive long and trend join. Over Friday’s high and holding could confirm the momentum shift in the short term. For a potential washout, I’ll watch 54 and 52.5 as key downside levels.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Other oversold names I am keeping tabs on include NBIS, AAOI, CBRS, CRWV, AMD, and NVDA.
Trade well, see you next week!