Trader’s,
I look forward to sharing several of my main ideas with you all for the week ahead. As is often the case, the ideas will span bigger-picture swing ideas, along with some intraday move-to-move ideas.
So, let’s get right into this week’s top ideas and plans.
Semis at a Junction: One chart/sector that stands out to me right now is SMH / Semis. SMH is tightly coiled between its 50-day SMA, which acts as supply, and its 5-day SMA, which acts as support. If it breaks above the 50-day, I think we could get decent intraday follow-through to the upside. The opposite is true if we break below the 5-day SMA. As a whole, I will be watching SMH for rel. strength or weakness around key levels. And if price action firms above last week’s high, a couple names stand out for potential follow-through to the upside – as examples for the long side:
AMD: Super action on Friday with a strong close above its 50-day, breaking out of its coil on the daily. If the sector and AMD show some strength next week, I like AMD for dip-buys / a buy on a hold above Friday’s high for continuation.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
NVTS: Different technical positioning to AMD, but it’s done a good job of building out a tight base after reclaiming its 200-day SMA and other shorter SMAs. A brief hold and relative strength above Friday’s high, and it might present a solid intraday opp for a push toward its 50-day / 100-day SMA as a first target.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Alright, moving on from semis.
Failed Follow-Through in SPCX: There’s no immediate action to be taken on SPCX from me. But if we push back into a major supply area near 150 and fail, I like it on the short side. 150 was prior support for several weeks back in July, and is now shaping up as resistance. If SPCX can rally into that zone and fail, providing a clean intraday level to trade against, I’d be open to shorting against it, and if it closes near LOD, holding a piece over.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Small Cap on Watch: WETO was Friday’s small-cap rigger, and closed fairly well. If this has an inside day, followed by a push through 11 – 12 the following day, I’d be open to some long scalps intraday for a potential squeeze out. Alternatively, if it gaps down and rallies back into 8 – 9 and stuffs, I’d be open to a short scalp, but if the volume is low, I’d likely ignore it on the short side… just not worth it in this environment.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
A Few Bigger Picture Ideas:
LLY: Nothing to do as of yet, but building out a lengthy base near 52-week highs at the moment. I’ve got alerts set and will zone in on it if we near resistance and a potential breakout spot near 1,240 for a swing long.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
NTRA: Watching if this can reclaim its 5-day and close strong for a potential swing long entry. Bigger picture leader in its space, with a solid hold post-earnings.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
CCXI: Bigger picture, lovely base and reclaim above 17 on Friday. I’m already long from lower, but still looking for spots to add, either on dips into 15.5 or unusual volume / elevated RVOL above Friday’s high, with first target on the lengthy swing long near prior highs.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Thoughts on Memory (MU, SNDK): I remain net long memory (micron), having positioned long on Wednesday, and am down to just under half the original size. I’m now looking for a fresh base to develop above the 50-day before sizing back in for further upward momentum. Alternatively, if the 50-day hold fails, I’ll exit the rest of the long. Another scenario is if we fail to base and extend another day or two above the 50-day, in which case I’d exit the long and focus on an intraday short trade, given the extension off the recent 7/29 low. Let’s see what Monday brings here.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.