Traders,
As I write this, it appears that the initial talks in Islamabad have broken down, or at least that an initial agreement and understanding have failed to materialize. Now, the likely outcome of the events and discussions is way above my pay grade, and I won’t even begin to pretend like I know what is likely to happen.
What I will focus on instead are the leaders and names that held up best last week, to see how they react on Monday. In addition, I’ll focus on isolated outlier opportunities.
8-Month Base in NVDA: Semis were one of the strongest pockets of the market last week. I’m not looking to chase highs; I’m looking for sustained strength, especially if we gap lower off the fresh news surrounding the negotiations. NVDA stands out to me because it’s part of a leading sector, and, of course, it’s been stuck in a base for many months. Ideally, to get long for a swing, I’d like to see a dip across the board get bought back up – especially if NVDA holds near converging MAs near $180. That would be a starter position, and if this were to creep higher and eventually take out $198 – $200, I might look to add with a trail against prior LOD.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
In that same breadth, I’ll also be keeping tabs on ARM.
The stock did a great job reclaiming its 200-day SMA and building a mini-base above it. If this can hold the 200-day, and its rising 20-day, acting as support, I’ll continue to closely watch it along with the broader sector. If a market dip gets bought and ARM holds firmly, I’ll most likely enter a starter long, looking to add above Friday’s high for a momentum swing trade lasting 2-3 days, trailing against LOD.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Mean Reversion in CAR: A setup I am most focused on this week is in CAR for a potential A+ mean-reversion trade. A lot needs to happen for that to occur, as A+ though. In an Ideal world, we get a gap-up and range expansion to the upside, which would extend this significantly from the 5-day and increase the expectancy and grading for a top mean reversion opportunity. But, in the event this does not blow through more shorts and expand to the upside, I also want to be prepared.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Instead, if CAR fails to go further parabolic and then hold weak / shift momentum / fail to follow through, I’ll look for a meaningful change of character like holding below prior day’s support, such as $270s – where I’d look to have a starter short, and add size below Friday’s low, which could signal an uptrend break. In that scenario of a gap-down / first-red day type of opp setup, this would be more of a B+ type opportunity, and one I’d trade with less size and a looser stop than if the A+ intraday blow-off were to set up.
Additional Ideas on Watch:
GOOGL: Nice job reclaiming its 100, 50, and 5-day last week. If this builds out a further base, undercuts the 3-day range, and reclaims, I’ll look to get long on the reclaim and add through last week’s high.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
CREG: Nice follow-through to the downside after topping on Friday. I’ll have alerts set in case this pushes back toward $0.90+ and fails to follow through to the upside, setting up a re-short against HOD.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
NVDA: Separate from the long idea, on a higher time frame, if the market were to gap lower and hold weak, I’d look for intraday momentum short scalps in NVDA if we fail to reclaim and display some rel. Weakness intraday. Why? Although the sector outperformed last week, if the market changes course, I would look for intraday short scalps in names trading toward higher-timeframe resistance for some profit-taking and supply to come in.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
INTC: If the narrative shifts and worsens regarding talks with Iran, and the market holds weak on Monday, I might also look at get short short-term overbought names like INTC for intraday momentum scalp opportunities if the stock fails to follow-through to the upside around key levels intraday / if we hold below Friday’s low and intraday VWAP.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.