Traders,
Yet another week of move2move trading leading the way, and remaining the overarching adjustment right now that I continue to make. What continues to matter most is recognizing the change in trading environment, and not forcing what might have worked well 3 weeks+ ago.
So, as I mentioned in my recent meeting with IA members, I continue to taper expectations, focus on selective short swings (NFLX) and intraday move2move trading (SPY, QQQ, IBIT, VXX). That will remain the focus until we see either capitulation or stabilization above key SMAs.
So, with that being said, let’s look at some of my top focuses coming into the week. Nothing I’m too excited about for the upcoming week, so I’ll be prioritizing patience and selectivity until things shape up. There’s no need to force…
Relief Bounce in RKLB: Relentless selloff in RKLB from its 52-week highs. On Friday, the stock found support near its 200-day SMA, about 50% below its Highs the prior month. Given the immense selloff in the name, coupled with the prior momentum and leadership it had up to November, it’s on my radar for a relief bounce. To get interested in a momentum trade intraday, I’d want to see the stock reclaim Friday’s high and hold above VWAP, developing an intraday trend. I’d need to see some relative strength shine through. If that occurs, I’d get long for a relief bounce toward the 10-day SMA as a primary initial target against a hold below intraday VWAP.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Bounce Trade in BTC/ETHA: Finally started to see some crypto capitulation in the early morning on Friday. However, both remained relatively weak against the market. To gain confidence in a bounce trade, I’d need to see IBIT / ETHA flip to display relative strength against the market, which would be a significant change of character against the prior week. Specifically, I’d need to see IBIT hold above Friday’s key resistance of 48.50s and develop an uptrend above its intraday VWAP.
Adding to that idea, I’ll be watching MSTR and BMNR as vehicles too. MSTR, for example, would not only need IBIT to flip to relative strength, but would need to display relative strength on top of that as well. So, ideally, we hold above Friday’s high / potentially gap up above Friday’s high and into the 5-day SMA. If strength or a gap holds well after a consolidation or flush attempts, I’d look to get long against a hold sub VWAP or a prior 5-minute higher low.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Compression in GLD: The range in GLD and several miners has continued to contract over the prior week, setting up a potential intraday breakout opportunity. From a technical perspective, I’m more bullish than bearish. But, I’m remaining open-minded as things can change on the fly in this tape. Ideally, I’d like to see GLD break above the 10-day SMA and Friday’s high, which would serve as the short-term resistance breakout point. If it has legs intraday and develops a steady trend, I’d be open to leaving on a piece against the day’s low for a multi-day swing with 388 – 390 target 1 on that leftover piece. Alternatively, I might look for a short if we break below, and hold below the 20-day SMA. Open-mindedness and flexibility is key in this tape.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Additional Names on Watch:
AAPL: Impressive relative strength last week. Will keep it on my radar for further build in case the market stabilizes and AAPL takes out resistance. Nothing to do here yet, just a noteworthy consolidation and r/s.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
MNDR: Keeping this on my radar for either a liquidity trap and squeeze (long-side), or early exhaust and capitulation above Friday’s high, followed by failed follow-through (short-side).
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
META: Nice short-term bottoming action. For any action, I’d need to see a hold above Friday’s high and a push above the 10-day SMA hold for a multi-day bounce opp.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.