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Weekend Review: July 20 – 26, 2009

Jul 26th, 2009 | By | Category: General Comments
The SPY finally traded above that 95 level this week.  In fact, it traded above that level for most of the week.  With earnings surprises to the upside from most S&P companies, it's understandable as to why.  Even in the face of tech heavy weights MSFT and AMZN selling off on initial earnings results, we managed to hold a bid above that crucial level.  Now beginning this week, all eyes are on the 98 level for immediate resistance, and 96.70, which was Friday's support. A broadening formation is being completed on the major indices.  Even as we're making new 8 month highs, this is something to be aware of. Ask yourself what can go wrong with the market.  A look at measuring risk Read more [...]

Posted in General Comments | No Comments »


STJ Earnings Play: Great Shorting Opportunity

Jul 22nd, 2009 | By | Category: Intraday Levels
One of my absolute favorite plays is a stock that breaks down, comes back up to a great short price where a battle ensues and then breaks to the lows again.  Today, STJ presented that opportunity.  It had caught my eye in the morning because I generally like the way it trades on earnings, but when I typed it up before our morning meeting, there was no volume, so I wasn't sure how good it was going to be. However, right before the open, a seller came down about 75 cents to 37.25 and sold a couple of thousand shares.  This immediately caught my eye, and I decided to trade it.  The stock opened around that 37.25 level and then traded down quickly to the whole.  Because of the gap down, I Read more [...]

Posted in Intraday Levels | 8 comments


Weekend Review: July 13 – 19, 2009

Jul 19th, 2009 | By | Category: General Comments
We were there.  On the edge of cracking the 88 level on the SPY Monday morning, when we had a strong rally to begin the week.  Then Intel reported to put some fire into this move.  We closed the week slightly below 94.50, which puts us within striking distance of our 6 month highs at 95.50.  We'll see how that plays out this upcoming week. CIT gets bailed out.  I must agree with the author of the article, CIT getting bailed out by its creditors can only help the US economy.  They provide cash flow to companies that can't wait long periods of time to receive payment.  If CIT goes under, you could have thousands of other businesses going under, which would hamper our economic recovery Read more [...]

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Weekend Review: July 6-July 12, 2009

Jul 12th, 2009 | By | Category: General Comments
A very bearish tone in the market this week, as the SPY has been trading around the ever so important 88 level.  Wednesday morning looked as if the market was ready to crack, but we rallied into the close as the bulls came in to provide some support.  With negative reactions to all economic numbers as a whole, we will look to the beginning of earnings season this week to provide us with a catalyst in one direction or another. An interesting post on high frequency trading.  Ever since news broke over the GS espionage last weekend, a lot more attention is starting to be paid towards high frequency trading.  But interestingly enough, none of this has been mentioned through traditional media.  Read more [...]

Posted in General Comments | No Comments »


The Week That Was: June 28 – July 5, 2009

Jul 5th, 2009 | By | Category: General Comments
Short week as Americans prepared to celebrate the Fourth of July.  I caught some nice sun and relaxed; hope you were all able to do the same.  We had some light volume until the non-farm payrolls number on Thursday, trading lower over the course of the rest of the day and closing near the lows.  Overall, not exactly how the bulls would prefer to go into the start of earnings season this week. Zerohedge has been getting a lot of notice from the other kids in the sand box lately. Just this week alone, Zerohedge had responses from Goldman, NYSE, and Dennis Kneale. Tyler Durden writes some good stuff. Here's an interesting post on the current Goldman saga with regards to stolen automated Read more [...]

Posted in General Comments | 6 comments


The Week That Was: June 15 – 21, 2009

Jun 21st, 2009 | By | Category: General Comments
The SPY was finally a little weaker this week, as the range moved down slightly, starting the week at 94, moving down to 91, and closing at 92. This coming week, the levels I will look at are 93 as resistance, and 90 as support. Some of this week's links: An interesting look at the possible moves the Fed will make in the upcoming months. Really good read, this could give you some insight on possible scenarios that could play out. A clip from 1994 regarding the Internet. It's funny to hear how it was regarded just 15 years ago. We've come a long way in a pretty short period of time. An interesting article on Bill Gross in the NY Times. I've got to side with Barry Ritholtz on this Read more [...]

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The Week That Was: June 8 – 15, 2009

Jun 14th, 2009 | By | Category: General Comments
Action in the SPY this week was pretty tight.  The lowest we traded was 93, and never really traded above 96, failing at the same spot we failed last Friday in the pre-market.  The range has really tightened over the last 2 weeks.  We were not able to close above 95 on the SPY until Friday, when we climbed above the level ever so slightly in the last few minutes of the day.  Going into this next week, I will be looking for the SPY to trade either below 93 or above 96 and trade in the direction of the break. NYSE prohibits removing liquidity into the close on Friday.  Not too sure if this is just a one time event or if we can expect more of this in the future, but as traders, I think it's Read more [...]

Posted in General Comments | No Comments »


The Week That Was: June 1 – 7, 2009

Jun 7th, 2009 | By | Category: General Comments
The SPY traded in a pretty tight range this week, not trading much below 93 or above 95.50.  Again, we were looking for that catalyst to push us one way or the other, and I thought we were going to get it Friday morning with the much better than expected non-farm payroll number.  We'll see this week if Friday's weakness was a precursor to a sell off in the market. A look at ETF performance.  The interesting thing to see is the ridiculous underperformance of the financial ETF's.  The leveraged ETF's have proven to track intraday volatility very well, but long term returns are lacking.  I know that they are working on developing ETF's that track returns on a monthly basis as opposed to Read more [...]

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The Week That Was: May 26 – 29, 2009

May 31st, 2009 | By | Category: General Comments
The action in this shortened week started on a strong note, and finished on a strong note.  After popping above 90 on the SPY in the opening minutes of trading on Tuesday, the bulls seemed to be in control for the most part, never dropping 89, even when it appeared on Thursday that we would be trading down to the lower end of the range at 88.  The one thing I really liked about that selloff was that for the most part financials remained firm, not making new lows, even as the market was.  On Friday we closed right near resistance, in the upper half of the range. We're still waiting for the catalyst for a move in either direction.  Until then, as J-toma said on CNBC this week, we're in a Read more [...]

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Momentum Versus Range-bound Trading

May 18th, 2009 | By | Category: Trading Theory
Jarrett wrote: "How do you know when a stock will go from momentum/ trending nicely, to consolidating. This always get me in trouble. I will trade a stock, like IBN, from short side 32 to 30, than it traded 30, so i got short, then it bounces to 30.20 i cover, back and forth, and it turns out the stock is in a range 30-30.50. I guess i should wait for a nice break below 30, but I fear that i will miss a good entry." I think this is a great question, and one that I think all developing traders have to think about. Looking at the chart of IBN from this morning, it traded down from 32 to 30 in the first few minutes of the day. I wasn't watching it, so I'm not sure if there was a buyer that Read more [...]

Tags: , , Posted in Trading Theory | 13 comments


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