{"id":9376,"date":"2011-01-25T09:09:31","date_gmt":"2011-01-25T14:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=9376"},"modified":"2011-01-25T09:09:31","modified_gmt":"2011-01-25T14:09:31","slug":"morning-thoughts-125","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-125","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts 1\/25"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good Morning Traders,<\/p>\n<p>Some interesting, and fairly large moves, in overnight markets demand our attention.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>World equities are pretty much off across the board, with a few exceptions.\u00a0 China is down a percent, most of Europe is also down a percent, led by the UK down -2%.\u00a0 Japan, Hong Kong, Ireland, Switzerland and Indonesia are all up this morning.<\/li>\n<li>US stock index futures are down roughly -5% in early trading.<\/li>\n<li>It is important to be aware of the bigger picture divergence between blue chips and small cap stocks.\u00a0 (Look at a daily chart of the DJIA vs R2K, etc for a clear illustration.)\u00a0 The strength in large caps may have created some complacency that could result in a sharp selloff if support levels fail to hold.\u00a0 On the other hand, a sharp upward move could be in the cards if the markets quickly recover and trade to new highs.\u00a0 Everyone expecting a pullback will be caught leaning the wrong way and will be forced to chase the market higher, and this creates great fuel for the rally.\u00a0 Though I personally think there is possibility of a fairly significant pullback, it is important to remain open to all possibilities and to realize there is good two way potential in the market right now.<\/li>\n<li>Some important moves in the currency markets too.\u00a0 British pound pretty much got destroyed overnight (GBPJPY -1.5%, GBPUSD -1.4%, etc), so expect this to be a theme throughout the day.\u00a0 Auzzie dollar is also weak, while the USDCAD cross is fairly strongly up this morning.\u00a0 Strength in the Euro has led to a net +.3% (+0.5 standard deviations) increase in the US Dollar index.<\/li>\n<li>Though this is not a large move in the Dollar, there are one way moves across most commodities, which are being sold strongly in early trading.\u00a0 Precious metals are down significantly, and, though oversold, there is a possibility that stops will be hit as buyers give up.\u00a0 <strong>Watch metals today.<\/strong> Energies are also off about 1 standard deviation; also watch these for further weakness.\u00a0 Grains are down, but NYBOT softs are mixed in early trading.<\/li>\n<li>Plenty of good play in earnings stocks today, but also watch some of these commodity themes for possible sector plays.\u00a0 May be decent plays in energies, metals and mining stocks, and possibly some other Materials stocks today.\u00a0 My first focus will be really in play earnings stocks, but these are significant moves in commodities overnight that deserve some thought and attention this morning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/AdamG_SMB\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/twitter-badges.s3.amazonaws.com\/follow_me-c.png\" alt=\"Follow AdamG_SMB on Twitter\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good Morning Traders, Some interesting, and fairly large moves, in overnight markets demand our attention. World equities are pretty much off across the board, with a few exceptions.\u00a0 China is down a percent, most of Europe is also down a percent, led by the UK down -2%.\u00a0 Japan, Hong Kong, Ireland, Switzerland and Indonesia are all up this morning. US &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-125\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":388,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general-comments-2","no-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Morning Thoughts 1\/25 | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-125\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Morning Thoughts 1\/25 | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good Morning Traders, Some interesting, and fairly large moves, in overnight markets demand our attention. World equities are pretty much off across the board, with a few exceptions.\u00a0 China is down a percent, most of Europe is also down a percent, led by the UK down -2%.\u00a0 Japan, Hong Kong, Ireland, Switzerland and Indonesia are all up this morning. US ... 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World equities are pretty much off across the board, with a few exceptions.\u00a0 China is down a percent, most of Europe is also down a percent, led by the UK down -2%.\u00a0 Japan, Hong Kong, Ireland, Switzerland and Indonesia are all up this morning. US ... 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