{"id":9367,"date":"2011-02-01T00:20:13","date_gmt":"2011-02-01T05:20:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=9367"},"modified":"2011-02-01T00:20:13","modified_gmt":"2011-02-01T05:20:13","slug":"evaluating-your-trading-results-34","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/evaluating-your-trading-results-34","title":{"rendered":"Evaluating your trading results (3\/4)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Thanks to reader Theo who emailed me to point out that it was high time I finish this series.\u00a0 Sorry for the delay!<\/p>\n<p>Please read parts <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/evaluating-your-trade-results-post-1-of-3\">one <\/a>and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/evaluating-your-trading-results-part-23\">two <\/a>of this series here.\u00a0 Everything I wrote there is important for this process, and I will not repeat that info in this post for the sake of brevity.<\/p>\n<p>So you have done everything in the previous posts, you have a good consistent set of records that cover all your trades with nothing left out, and you&#8217;re ready to do some quantitative analysis on your results.\u00a0 Before we jump into this, it is important to consider what this analysis can and cannot show you.\u00a0 First of all, at the end of this process you are going to know, with a fair degree of certainty, if you actually have an edge in trading or not.\u00a0 One of the advantages of doing this kind of analysis is that the numbers will not lie.\u00a0 There is no place to hide, and many traders will be shocked when they first look at their numbers like this.<\/p>\n<p>It is also worth considering that, especially for developing traders, this type of analysis is an important part of your self-evaluation, but it is not enough.\u00a0 You need to be keeping a journal that helps you focus on the psychological and performance issues related to trading&#8230; to get past the actual numbers to the core reasons why you are or are not performing as a trader.\u00a0 For the beginning trader, don&#8217;t make the mistake of thinking you can crunch some numbers and get a complete view of your development as a trader.\u00a0 The numbers are the bottom line, but realize that they are the result of <strong>your performance of your trading edge.<\/strong> Speaking personally, doing this kind of analysis keeps me from getting stupid &#8212; I know that if I do not execute my system faithfully then it is impossible for me to really quantify how good my edge in the market actually is, since my numbers will be a jumble of a valid edge and random elements from my performance issues.\u00a0 I have found that doing disciplined analysis of my results forces me to be even more disciplined in my actual trading.\u00a0 (This, by the way, is kind of the definition of a &#8220;win-win&#8221; situation!)<\/p>\n<p>I would suggest carrying this analysis out on two levels&#8211;trade by trade and day by day.\u00a0 First of all, for daytraders the end of the day is an important break point, so it makes sense to evaluate each day&#8217;s performance, both on a gross and net (of all transactions costs) basis.\u00a0 As anyone who has traded for more than a few days knows, it is also important to not get too emotionally attached to any one day, but to view your performance over a larger sample size of days as well.\u00a0 Specifically, I calculate the following over the past 10 days:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Average day (winning and losing)<\/li>\n<li>Median day (winning and losing) (if you don&#8217;t understand the need for a median in addition to a mean, don&#8217;t worry about it.\u00a0 You will get a lot of information from the mean anyway.)<\/li>\n<li>Standard deviation (winning and losing)<\/li>\n<li>Repeat this for winning days as a separate group, and also repeat for losing days as a group.<\/li>\n<li>Percentage of days that are winning days<\/li>\n<li>Repeat this entire analysis for the past 50 trading days as well.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>One of the interesting things we can do is to plot each day as a bar against the average and standard deviation of the past 50 trading days.\u00a0 A constructive way to use this kind of analysis (or, actually, any statistical analysis) is not to give us answers as much as to tell us what questions to ask.\u00a0 Asking the right questions is often half the battle.\u00a0 Consider the following graphs from three different traders:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9550\" title=\"1\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"446\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/1.jpg 446w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/1-300x235.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 446px) 100vw, 446px\" \/><\/a>In this chart, each blue bar is a single trading day, above and below a clear zero line.\u00a0 The thick blue line is the average of recent trading days, and the larger, light blue area is a +\/- 2 standard deviation band around the average.\u00a0 What can we see from this trader&#8217;s performance?\u00a0 Well, it looks like something has changed because the standard deviation of his trading days has really widened to the right of the chart.\u00a0 This might not be a bad thing (perhaps could be a result of increasing trading size for instance), but in this case there are a string of about 10 losing days that need to be explained.\u00a0 There could be many reasons for this; all the statistical analysis in the world is not going to get us any closer to those reasons, but we at least know the right questions to ask.\u00a0 It is interesting to see that this trader does seem to be able to put together some good winning days, but we need to find out what is driving the big streak of losing days.\u00a0 If we see nothing else, we are concerned that this trader&#8217;s average day has dipped far below the zero line, so it is definitely time to have a conversation.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9549\" title=\"2\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"320\" height=\"273\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/2.jpg 320w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/2-300x255.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 320px) 100vw, 320px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This trader also has some interesting issues.\u00a0 There is no consistency or regularity in these trading days.\u00a0 This trader seems to be able to put together some winning days, but a number of very large (-4 standard deviations???) losing days completely erase any edge he might have.\u00a0 Predictably, his average is wandering back and forth on both sides of zero and it seems unlikely he will make money until he can get some more consistency to his days.\u00a0 What is driving this inconsistency?\u00a0 We can&#8217;t tell from this analysis, but that is an important question to ask.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/3.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9548\" title=\"3\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"444\" height=\"352\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/3.jpg 444w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/3-300x237.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 444px) 100vw, 444px\" \/><\/a>Lastly, here is a trader who seems to be firing on all cylinders.\u00a0 A large number of positive days, a rising daily average (looks like bad things might have been happening off the left edge of the chart), and, perhaps best of all, notice that his light blue band is contracting.\u00a0 As those of you with formal Finance backgrounds know, this is about the best you can ask for &#8212; an increasing average return with a decreasing standard deviation.\u00a0 This shows that this trader seems to have identified an edge and seems to be applying it with consistency.<\/p>\n<p>These three examples give you some idea of what you can do with a fairly simply analysis of daily trading numbers.\u00a0 If you are a longer-term trader, it might be more appropriate to do it on a weekly basis.\u00a0 If you are a swing trader, it may also make sense to do this analysis on a trade by trade basis in addition to, or perhaps in place of day by day.\u00a0 In other words, you can keep a graph of each trade either by entry date or exit date.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t think there is right or wrong, but it is important that you are consistent.\u00a0 Remember, the point of this analysis is to find the right questions to ask so you can understand what is driving your performance.\u00a0\u00a0 I had planned for this to be the last in this set of blogs, but I think it is best to save the trade by trade analysis for the next blog, which I will try to write very soon!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/AdamG_SMB\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/twitter-badges.s3.amazonaws.com\/follow_me-c.png\" alt=\"Follow AdamG_SMB on Twitter\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some ideas for doing statistical analysis of your daily trading results<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":388,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[943,1,1373],"tags":[939,1579,1420,749,1531],"class_list":["post-9367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-grimess-blogs","category-general-comments-2","category-trading-lesson","tag-analysis","tag-evaluation","tag-performance","tag-statistics","tag-stats","no-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Evaluating your trading results (3\/4) | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/evaluating-your-trading-results-34\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" 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