{"id":9057,"date":"2011-01-03T08:23:07","date_gmt":"2011-01-03T13:23:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=9057"},"modified":"2011-01-03T08:23:07","modified_gmt":"2011-01-03T13:23:07","slug":"morning-thoughts-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts 1\/3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good Morning Traders,<\/p>\n<p>And Happy New Year!\u00a0 Some interesting things happening this morning:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9059\" title=\"esdaily\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"560\" height=\"302\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png 700w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily-300x161.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>First of all, realize that volatility cratered in the last weeks of 2010, but this is nothing out of the ordinary.\u00a0 The circled area above shows our indicator that looks at each day&#8217;s price change as a standard deviation of the last 20 days.\u00a0 As you can see, not much happening there.\u00a0 Two things to think about today:\u00a0 big moves come out of these areas of volatility compression, but many of your volatility and volume based indicators will be skewed for the first trading days of 2011.<\/p>\n<p>There is a tremendous seasonal tendency for today to close up from the previous day&#8217;s close.\u00a0 Pretty much every equity market around the world is showing strong moves up this morning (with the exception of Australia -0.5%, Japan -0.4%, the UK -1.0% and Ireland at -0.5%). However, we may be fulfilling expectation from the seasonal bias on the open today (currently futures are maked up 10 handles), so do not assume that this means that today will trend up.\u00a0 &#8220;Gap and crap&#8221;, gapping up and then going flat for the rest of the day, is also a possibility today.<\/p>\n<p>If we continue to be strong, look for strength in Basic Materials, Energy and Industrials.\u00a0 Specifically, POT PBR and AGU (or MON) might be worth your time.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/si.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9061\" title=\"si\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/si.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"560\" height=\"302\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/si.png 700w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/si-300x161.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/gc.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9060\" title=\"gc\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/gc.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"560\" height=\"302\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/gc.png 700w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/gc-300x161.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">One of the major structural points in the market is the divergence between Gold and Silver.\u00a0 Silver has clearly been the leader for the past 2 months, and closed 2010 at new highs.\u00a0 Gold did not, closing well under the 52 week high.\u00a0 This should be on every trader&#8217;s radar screen today as there are two ways this situation could resolve &#8212; the leader can pull the laggard up, or Silver can fail with a 2B at the highs.\u00a0 Either way, the metals themselves could be in play today.\u00a0 I would not expect clean carryover to individual metals and mining issues in all scenarios, so focus your first attention on the metals.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/dx.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9058\" title=\"dx\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/dx.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"560\" height=\"302\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/dx.png 700w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/dx-300x161.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><\/a>Lastly, the USD is sitting on fairly important support.\u00a0 As I have said for weeks, my sense is that this support is somewhat unlikely to hold, but it probably does not make sense to anticipate this trade.\u00a0 Rather, set alerts for key price levels (can use UUP or even FXE as the EUR is approximately 60% of the Dollar Index basket) and think about how a significant move in the Dollar might impact commodities and equities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Good luck today.\u00a0 I will tweet the In Play list from the SMB Radar in the first half hour today.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/AdamG_SMB\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/twitter-badges.s3.amazonaws.com\/follow_me-c.png\" alt=\"Follow AdamG_SMB on Twitter\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good Morning Traders, And Happy New Year!\u00a0 Some interesting things happening this morning: First of all, realize that volatility cratered in the last weeks of 2010, but this is nothing out of the ordinary.\u00a0 The circled area above shows our indicator that looks at each day&#8217;s price change as a standard deviation of the last 20 days.\u00a0 As you can &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":388,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[943],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-adam-grimess-blogs","no-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Morning Thoughts 1\/3 | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Morning Thoughts 1\/3 | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good Morning Traders, And Happy New Year!\u00a0 Some interesting things happening this morning: First of all, realize that volatility cratered in the last weeks of 2010, but this is nothing out of the ordinary.\u00a0 The circled area above shows our indicator that looks at each day&#8217;s price change as a standard deviation of the last 20 days.\u00a0 As you can ... Read More\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SMB Training Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/smbcap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-01-03T13:23:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Adam\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@smbcapital\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@smbcapital\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Adam\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Adam\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/dc89886f611b7f43996f76d73a99c964\"},\"headline\":\"Morning Thoughts 1\/3\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-01-03T13:23:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2\"},\"wordCount\":431,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Adam Grimes's blogs\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2\",\"name\":\"Morning Thoughts 1\/3 | SMB Training\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-01-03T13:23:07+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Morning Thoughts 1\/3\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"SMB Training Blog\",\"description\":\"Lessons from the trading desk\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#organization\",\"name\":\"SMB Training\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Logo-e1658419502954.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Logo-e1658419502954.png\",\"width\":230,\"height\":81,\"caption\":\"SMB Training\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/smbcap\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/smbcapital\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/user\/smbcapital\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/dc89886f611b7f43996f76d73a99c964\",\"name\":\"Adam\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/author\/aceman\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Morning Thoughts 1\/3 | SMB Training","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Morning Thoughts 1\/3 | SMB Training","og_description":"Good Morning Traders, And Happy New Year!\u00a0 Some interesting things happening this morning: First of all, realize that volatility cratered in the last weeks of 2010, but this is nothing out of the ordinary.\u00a0 The circled area above shows our indicator that looks at each day&#8217;s price change as a standard deviation of the last 20 days.\u00a0 As you can ... Read More","og_url":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2","og_site_name":"SMB Training Blog","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/smbcap\/","article_published_time":"2011-01-03T13:23:07+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Adam","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@smbcapital","twitter_site":"@smbcapital","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Adam","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2"},"author":{"name":"Adam","@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/dc89886f611b7f43996f76d73a99c964"},"headline":"Morning Thoughts 1\/3","datePublished":"2011-01-03T13:23:07+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2"},"wordCount":431,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png","articleSection":["Adam Grimes's blogs"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2","url":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2","name":"Morning Thoughts 1\/3 | SMB Training","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png","datePublished":"2011-01-03T13:23:07+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#primaryimage","url":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png","contentUrl":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/esdaily.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/morning-thoughts-13-2#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Morning Thoughts 1\/3"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/","name":"SMB Training Blog","description":"Lessons from the trading desk","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#organization","name":"SMB Training","url":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Logo-e1658419502954.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Logo-e1658419502954.png","width":230,"height":81,"caption":"SMB Training"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/smbcap\/","https:\/\/x.com\/smbcapital","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/user\/smbcapital"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/dc89886f611b7f43996f76d73a99c964","name":"Adam","url":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/author\/aceman"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/388"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9057"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9057\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}