{"id":8347,"date":"2010-11-14T13:17:38","date_gmt":"2010-11-14T18:17:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=8347"},"modified":"2023-06-08T12:18:55","modified_gmt":"2023-06-08T16:18:55","slug":"volatility-clustering-one-way-that-markets-are-not-random","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/volatility-clustering-one-way-that-markets-are-not-random","title":{"rendered":"Volatility Clustering: Unveiling the Non-Random Nature of Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This is a followup to my posts (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/random-thoughts-or-rather-thoughts-about-randomness\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">here<\/span><\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/another-look-at-randomness\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">here <\/span><\/a>and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/randomness-the-answer-key\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">here<\/span><\/a>) examining some relationships between random data and market data.\u00a0 I&#8217;m sure many of our readers were surprised to see patterns in randomly generated data that looked like real market data.\u00a0 Random datasets have trends, appear (on casual inspection of the charts) to respect support and resistance, and also show many of the chart patterns that technical traders tend to look for.\u00a0 In those posts, I gave you the bad news, which is that a lot of what goes in on the marketplace is probably more due to random fluctuations than we would like to believe.\u00a0 However, stock prices are <strong>not<\/strong> the product of a random number generator, but rather the end result of buying and selling decisions made by human beings who are basing these decisions on a combination of intellectual analysis and emotional reactions.\u00a0 There are some quantifiable non-random elements in market data, and some of those can be used as the basis for profitable trading strategies.<\/p>\n<p>In the answer key to the random charts, one of the criteria I gave was: &#8220;For instance, volatility is often identifiable as a non-random element.\u00a0 Volatility shocks (an academic term, but a useful one.\u00a0 Think of a quiet market reacting to sudden news.) tend to persist.\u00a0 What this means from a practical standpoint is that the ranges of bars usually fluctuate in less-than-random ways:\u00a0 A sudden large bar will usually be followed by more large bars and vice versa.&#8221;\u00a0 There are a number of models that capture this tendency.\u00a0 Some of the better-known are the ARCH, GARCH and EGARCH (exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heterskedastic models&#8230;. try saying that three times fast.) models which expand on my random coin flip model by modifying the volatility of the model to match what happens in real markets a little bit better.\u00a0 Essentially, the ARCH family models set the volatility of a price series based on the volatility of recent history &#8212; volatile markets tend to have more volatility in their future and quiet markets tend to stay quiet until some random volatility shock (think new information like an earnings announcement) hits the market.<\/p>\n<p>The ARCH models are certainly a little academic (and, frankly, outdated), but I think there is an important practical lesson that you can take into your own trading.\u00a0 When a quiet market makes a big move (i.e. suddenly becomes more volatile), your best bet is to bet on future volatility being relatively high.\u00a0 It is unusual for a market to become volatile and them immediately go dead again.\u00a0 Volatility shocks tend to persist.\u00a0 Big moves give rise to more big moves.<\/p>\n<p>An important caveat is that this kind of volatility is non-directional.\u00a0 A market can make a big move up, and then have a period of volatility that is up, down, or sideways.\u00a0 You can incorporate this into your analysis in various ways, and realize that there are instruments (options) that allow you to actually trade the volatility itself.\u00a0 I decided to share a few charts that illustrate this principle in a simple way.\u00a0 Most of our readers have probably have never seen charts like the ones attached, but these are charts of the cash S&amp;P index that express each day&#8217;s price change as a standard deviation of the last year&#8217;s realized (historical or statistical) volatility.\u00a0 I wanted to make the charts focus on larger price moves, so everything below 2.5 standard deviations is cut off, and the charts display absolute values of price changes.\u00a0 We see something very interesting in these charts strange looking charts:\u00a0 volatility clustering.\u00a0 Big price spikes tend to cluster around other big spikes, and are interspersed with long periods without any big price spikes.\u00a0 Go back through these charts and think about what news items were driving volatility in those periods where we see large clusters of spikes, and think about how you might have incorporated knowledge of volatility clustering in your market analysis.\u00a0 From a quantitative perspective, this is one of the most important non-random elements in market behavior.\u00a0 Many discretionary traders will find this to be a valuable additional to their analytical toolset as well.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8353\" title=\"1\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/1-1024x137.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"82\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/1-1024x137.png 1024w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/1-300x40.png 300w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/1.png 1419w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8349\" title=\"2\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/2-1024x134.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"80\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/2-1024x134.png 1024w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/2-300x39.png 300w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/2.png 1419w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8350\" title=\"3\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/3-1024x136.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"82\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/3-1024x136.png 1024w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/3-300x39.png 300w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/3.png 1418w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8351\" title=\"4\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/4-1024x134.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"80\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/4-1024x134.png 1024w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/4-300x39.png 300w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/4.png 1418w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-8352\" title=\"5\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/5-1024x135.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"81\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/5-1024x135.png 1024w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/5-300x39.png 300w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/5.png 1419w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Volatility can be more predictable than the behavior of actual prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":388,"featured_media":8353,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[943,1,3,1373],"tags":[4683,1482,48],"class_list":["post-8347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-adam-grimess-blogs","category-general-comments-2","category-technical_plays","category-trading-lesson","tag-options","tag-price-models","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Volatility Clustering: One Way Markets Are Not Random | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover the concept of volatility clustering and how it can help you better understand the markets.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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