{"id":51231,"date":"2021-05-21T09:45:37","date_gmt":"2021-05-21T13:45:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=51231"},"modified":"2021-05-21T09:45:37","modified_gmt":"2021-05-21T13:45:37","slug":"how-to-identify-trends-in-stocks-for-lasting-moves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-to-identify-trends-in-stocks-for-lasting-moves","title":{"rendered":"How to Identify Trends in Stocks (for lasting moves)"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this video learn how to identify trends in stocks. Ryan, a SMB Senior Trader, offers advice to an intern on an earnings trade. You don’t want to miss the invaluable exchange between the two.<\/p>\nView Video Transcript<\/strong><\/span>

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hey guys ryan here senior trader from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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smb<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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capital in this video watch an intern<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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present his playbook for earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and throughout the video you’ll be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hearing me chiming in with some comments<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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questions advice and feedback relating<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to process<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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discipline risk management trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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management and more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i hope you enjoyed this video cheers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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[Music]<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i’ll be doing a playbook on earning<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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seasons identifying trends<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this is a little bit packed information<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so i’m going to try to make it as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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concise as possible so just an overview<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this trade is going to highlight how to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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identify high quality earnings to trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for day one moves<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then go over variables to study and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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keep track of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then from that um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i have outlined a process that helps me<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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catch trends earlier within earning<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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seasons<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um opposed to hindsight after it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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already done and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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currently it’s being developed into a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bigger idea that i’ll mention later<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so the variables for the er specifically<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for screening<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i’m taking a very close look at the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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implied beat of the earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how the ranges are created and after<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hours of pre-market what is its atr gap<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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up where is it on its daily weekly chart<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and on the fundamental side<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um we’re looking at eps and sales growth<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh those beats um and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if it’s like a social media company that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tends to have other key metrics like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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daily active users that’s important as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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well and then another form of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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confirmation that there will be active<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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participants<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in that name is pt upgrades from major<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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banks and institutions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and so moving on to open variables<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because within the first five to ten<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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minutes the variables and the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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information that you have to wait<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is very different from screening for the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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setup itself and so within the first 10<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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minutes we’re asking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um what is its daily average volume and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how much of that have we done<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what is its pre-gap atr um with that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pre-gap atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we use we mark it minutes before the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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open<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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based on where we’re about to open free<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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market three atr’s higher one atr lower<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and the reason behind this is we’ll talk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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through scenarios and expectations<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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five minutes before we open that way<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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within the first 30 minutes the morning<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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session we’re not doing any calculations<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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right we just got to sit there and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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monitor data and get to our decision<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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making process<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and along those lines um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i’ve lined up some important questions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that within that morning session you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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should be asking yourself if you want to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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get involved in this trade if you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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already are involved<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in already involved with this trade um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and those questions are how fast did<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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price get over pre-market high<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how are poland’s bought how does high<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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day react are there sellers present are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we stuffing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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or are we holding compressing highs<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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versus skipping higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how does price hold each of those atr’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and how is volume relative to the first<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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leg higher which is usually the opening<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bid<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i mean i i understand why you’re looking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at atr but i think a lot of traders and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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your traders are watching this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um are probably you know could be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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wondering why do you place so much<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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importance<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on atr and why is it such a big variable<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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part of your strategy<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so you know what why would you say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh you know atr being a part of your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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strategy so important as opposed to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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looking at something else to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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perhaps um categorize certain moves<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yeah that’s that’s a really good point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um so atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is uh one of it’s the key metric we use<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to track these ers when we were<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just going through and tracking a lot of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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data points and average true range is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what atr stands for and that’s just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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going to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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within x number of days this is like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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let’s say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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ups had a uh ups the earnings i’m going<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to talk about later had a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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average range of 3.3 so on any day it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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could move up to 3.3 points<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh intraday and so we would use that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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number as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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let’s see how many of those average true<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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ranges it can do uh considering that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know has hazard earnings a lot of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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volume a lot of participants um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and we came by those numbers after doing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this research right here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this these earnings about the 23 or 24<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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innings that are in here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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are pretty much all from end of 2020<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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season um that that earning season was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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good um and on average just to go<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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through these stats real quick and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just so you can see what we’re looking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at or what we’re thinking about when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this trade came to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on average these earnings will gap up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just over five atr’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they’ll have an implied beat of 1.6<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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intraday<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’ll get a four atr move on average<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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low day from the open is within half an<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh from the open and high of day is over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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three and a half atr’s away from the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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open<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then after going through a few<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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seasons we also found more edge<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh besides the day one trades like in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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continuation trades<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so we ended up creating uh data stack<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tracking what percentage of day one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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moves<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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do these continuation day two moves do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and we found on average<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’ll get about a 90 move of day one in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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terms of measured moves<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re usually looking for 50 of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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first move but this told us<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you can be more aggressive with a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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portion or a partial<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um of the trade i think it’s very good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that you’re looking at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know multiple day possibilities<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know if something has a large<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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implied move or it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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typically just has a fairly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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big atr it also means that you know it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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comes at opportunity costs so it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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something that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that moves a lot each day probably has<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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less liquidity which means you can take<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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less size you can control your risk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um you know not as well or something<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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with higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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daily average volume so the fact that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’re looking for swing trades um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is very good because you know you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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maybe take<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if you just swing trades wider stops but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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smaller size but give it room to really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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play out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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as a trade versus just you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sculpting<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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right exactly that’s that’s the way<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re looking forward for this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if you want to learn three more real<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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world setups that our traders use<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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including the simple setup that we teach<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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all of our new traders and the setup<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that turned one of our traders into a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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seven<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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figure big money earner check out the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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free webinar that we’re currently<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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running<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just go ahead and click the link that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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should be appearing now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at the top right hand corner of your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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screen that will open up the free<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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registration page in a new window so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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don’t worry<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you won’t lose this video you can also<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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visit<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tradingworkshop.com to register for this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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free intensive workshop<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’re going to learn more in a couple<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of hours from this trading workshop<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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than from years of online education yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so just to jump into an example of what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re looking at recently a couple<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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months ago<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we had upst massive implied b uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and something that i want to highlight<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for pre-market a lot of these implied<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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beats that have over 2x<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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will get run up during pre-market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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meaning like it’ll open up here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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or after i was like it run up all the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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way up here and this one just didn’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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have that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and it did its daily average volume in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the first 15 minutes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and it never really sold off after that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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move it just held highs made a new high<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like 10 minutes later uh and this one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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ended up doubling in three sessions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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ended up going from like 80 to 160.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um i’m just gonna highlight two from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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last season<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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from the stats that i just gave you um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just want to highlight those variables<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and those questions that i mentioned<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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earlier like how much of its daily vlog<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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average daily vlogging will be done in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this case zscaler end of december<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we did half our daily average volume two<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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minutes and within five minutes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we were holding one atr higher and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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making new highs with high volume<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i ended up doing three and a half atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that day and then this pinterest trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is the trade that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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ryan and i did a playbook on um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for this earnings trade the same<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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earnings trade last october<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um and this is just very simple one atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and pre-market high coincided and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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within five minutes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we were over that and holding and that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
was a form of confirmation for us to put<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on a little more size in the short term<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um and like you mentioned at this point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
we were<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
in october end of 2020 we were just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
looking at day one moves<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it took us a few seasons to kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
figure out we can expand on this a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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little bit<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and that’s what i’m going to talk about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
first of all shout out joe freya real<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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quick he’s the one that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
kind of showed us notion to track this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
stuff before we were just using<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
uh a slide deck but you also just want<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
point out quickly uh the importance of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like like you you pointed out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
uh pre-market of our levels um used<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you know for for an opening drive play<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for example<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um very important to just keep keep<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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track of those levels<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
right right definitely definitely um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
so this is uh to track<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
more than just track it’s to sort and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
study because before we were tracking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
uh tracking the chart books and kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
labeling notes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
in google slides but i’m sure most you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
guys know you can’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
sort and study those um or filter those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and so notion allows us to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
filter by any of these variables that we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
put into uh these<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
little descriptions i’ve got it sorted<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
by implied move and all these earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are from this past season so we’ve got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
almost 20 pretty pretty decent ers in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
terms of reactions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and within each of each one of these<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
we’re just tracking implied move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
average or the atr gap intraday move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
average daily range<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
uh this is just a stock characteristic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
we use um similar to atr but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
uh we use it to choose how we’re gonna<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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execute a name<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
average volume uh what its float is how<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
many days does it make a new high<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
intraday setup and this right here is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
kind of this is what told us<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
or showed us earlier than any other<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
season<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that things were continuing um because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
when you track it like this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and you’re inputting data into each of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
these ers that come through<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
it’s very clear when things are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
continuing and things are working<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
because you’re tracking the data<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
day-to-day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so just to quickly highlight what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
happened with ups’s earnings we got to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
beat on eps<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
got a small beat in revenue and another<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
form of that confirmation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is 10 over 10 price target raises in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
following two sessions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s unheard of for these earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
honestly like that doesn’t that just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
doesn’t happen<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um average volume 3.2 million<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
atr is 3.3 pre-gap those are just the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
two characteristics that i’ll be paying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the most attention to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
when i actually take this trade so on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the weekly you can see we’re dropping<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
out of a decent range<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
intraday on the 27th of april opening<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
five minutes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we did 30 of our average daily volume<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and we were also doing one atr higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
got over market high and so those are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the same variables that i had mentioned<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
earlier that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
those are like if you get those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
variables it’s not confirmation in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
itself<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but it is very very strong um if you’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
watching tape and everything<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
just all that comes together to those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are moments where you can get big<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and the day two move uh created a tight<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
range under this 196<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
about a point and uh you were able to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
get about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
four or five points intraday uh but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
obviously this this went much much<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
farther than that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this made a high for seven sessions in a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
row um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so i’ll go through tape real fast just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to highlight that moment where you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
get really big we open<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and by the way nicey tick means that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’re waiting for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
nice like uh nicey like volume to come<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in like to open we did 15k<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like we’ve already opened 30 seconds ago<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and we’ve done 15k<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um that’s just it we haven’t really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opened yet is what it’s telling you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’re gonna get like hundreds of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
thousands<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of shares sling through when we really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
get um our nicey take<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so here i’m just watching spread<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
before we get that volume<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’m going to see if that’s going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
tighten up a ton and the scenarios we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
watching here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
by the way are it’s either going to have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the most aggressive scenario of pull<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
into 190 hold<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and just go it gets right over market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
high it’s going to go into this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
2atr pretty fast or our most our<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
favorite aggressive scenario is pulling<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to s1<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s 187. um usually that happens on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
lighter selling uh like an opening two<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
minute cell<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
down there and then you’ll see on tape<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
selling trickle down but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in this case um we got that most<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
aggressive scenario<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
after a little fake out so we saw 190<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
come back down in the offer here still<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
about 15k done<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so i’m waiting we’re waiting um and i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
see us start to lift<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
at that point i was just kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
interested to put on a feeler<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and then i saw the 200k come in um and i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
was like all right so now we’re doing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
volume<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
now how are we going to hold up 190. and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they sold it and so i took off the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
feeler i was like now my expectation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
having done 250k<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
plus shares to the downside on the bid<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is 190 189.70 should drop<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and they should come into 187 187 and a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
half where we can start buying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they just started soaking it there’s a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
hidden buyer here and so you’re going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
see me get kind of excited here with my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mouse<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’m like hey that should have sold and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so i’m just like that’s really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
interesting that’s really interesting<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we could turn back the other way i put<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on the feeler back and i’m like all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
right if they start buying this new<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
highs and more volume comes in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like this is going to go and so i double<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
up there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and i really think at that point i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
should be even bigger but this is the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
first<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
er of the season that ended up working<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like this so i’m not going to get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
too hindsight bias in this but at this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
point i shouldn’t see it come back under<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
190 and hold<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and um i’m watching that 192 and a half<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and for that pre-market high how fast we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
get over it and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’m also watching our daily average<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
volume is 3.3 million<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and we’ve done a million shares in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
first two minutes and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we saw the opening move was about 250k<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
shares lower<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but within less than two minutes they’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
overrun those sell orders and put in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
another<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
500k plus to the upside<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
just a big moment of momentum and what i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
realized here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is i want to be risking like i like this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
idea so much i want to be risking a good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
amount to view up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but i was too heavy to risk everything<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um under a wick low meaning you could<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
whip whip me out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for no real reason and i could still be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
right um so when it drops 191 here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i take off a third of it just thinking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um if it is going to get over that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
pre-market high<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and get momentum meaning make new highs<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
consecutively<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in this opening drive it’s going to make<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a new high on this candle<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but what i’m realizing here is this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
moment where it pulls into 191 um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s an rr moment right i got the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
volume confirmation i got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh the move higher i was watching the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opening bid i got a feeler on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s a good point to be putting on uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
risk reward risk where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’re only risking about 50 to 70 cents<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on that lot<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but when i take the ad a little bit<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
higher obviously i’m risking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a minimum of a point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so um let’s see if we can move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
forward here a bit<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to where i got risk off<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we see it just kind of slowly moving the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
other thing about this name ups about to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mention is the low adr name<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this is the stock characters we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mentioned earlier um sub three to four<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
percent adrs<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we don’t see have a ton of momentum and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so that was something we talked about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
real time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so i took off about 30 or 40 percent<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the pre-market high and at this point i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
was just like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’m in such a good position from this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like this point against the low i can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
add if we get a nice range<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and so i just sat from this point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and then a few minutes later we start<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
expanding<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like about a minute and a half later uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
into a one atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and i end up getting flat into 196.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh i think that’s two atr’s and it feels<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
extended when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’re when you’re trading a name that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’ve bought from the open that’s up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
two three even four atrs but i’ll<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
highlight later why<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
or where these trades can go like you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mentioned earlier there’s there’s a lot<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
more potential here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um but yeah the short term edge we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
developed was just in the day one moves<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
but we’re moving a little bit past that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
so like i mentioned ups did<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
or made a new high for seven sessions in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
a row that that’s not something that i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
would look to repeat or expect in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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another<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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earnings but that is something that was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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wildly interesting to us first of all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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ups isn’t a name that gets a ton of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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momentum<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s been unarranged pretty much all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for it to gap out of its multi-uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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multi-month and like out of that yearly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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weekly range<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and continue making new highs every day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that caught our attention<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
i mean that’s something that often<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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happens when a stock uh you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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when a large cap is in a range for an<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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extended period of time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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once it gets out of its range you have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to remember a lot of funds and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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institutions that start purchasing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
they don’t purchase shares in one day uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know they’ll team up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
over a period of five six days um and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that’s often why you get continuation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s something i’ve seen uh you know the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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last<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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five six years is this happens<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh more often than you’d think uh those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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patterns<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um and then something something else is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i mean<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the trade and the tape it’s it’s it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
definitely good and and you spotted<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
uh good trends in in real time um very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
quick short-term<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
trends on the tap um and the executions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
were great<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
um i agree you know would have it would<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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have gone from being a good trade to a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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great trade if the stock were to base<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
above v1 for five minutes and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you’re able to actually put on some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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meaningful size<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
against uh you know the low of that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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consolidation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
where you’d be wrong for example um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
but uh yeah the fact that it went five<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
six minutes or however long uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
10 minutes straight up into two atr’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh that that made things tricky i i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
would have taken um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
i would have taken you know if not all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
of it maybe<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
60 70 off as well into that up move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that’s definitely the responsible thing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to do and then how to pull back made a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
higher low<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
um and you know you’re very confident<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
about the position<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and your plan and it was playing out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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according to that plan and that would<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
have been<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know another really good setup to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
buy the higher load once it pulled in to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
get that rescored<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
but but that was good that was yeah you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
saw you saw some good stuff there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
right right thanks um and like you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mentioned<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
these trades like they will uh work and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
go for multiple days<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but what we saw was there’s no get like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
when we tracked<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this trade and made this our main<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
playbook trade we found that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
uh it’s a lot easier to be wrong in this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
than to be right so then monitoring each<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
season was super important to us because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we got a lot of fake outs where earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they would have a day one move and they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
would have no continuation at all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um or the earnings would have it would<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
look like it would better have a day one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
move make a really strong move off the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
open<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and it would go to a lesser extent<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
intraday and so that’s where we realize<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we have to be adjusting our execution<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
styles<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but when we found this this to be in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
play like this earnings trade to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
actually bought by the general market it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
would play out with stuff like this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
where we get a catalyst or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we get a single name that makes us look<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
back at these earnings and say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
okay this could be a trade that actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
plays out this season<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
whereas like the beginning of 2021 that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
earnings season we got caught up in a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
little bit<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
took a little bit heavier losses than we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
needed to just because we got a couple<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that worked<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and just kind of assumed that you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the rest of them would work<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
pretty well even though we didn’t get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
kind of a confirmation or a wild<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
reaction like ups that made us like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
look back and say this is a change from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
expectations<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
um and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
along like along those lines we were<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
just thinking after we saw that report<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and that reaction<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
we knew that most of the s p is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
reporting in the coming weeks and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that just told us<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we need to prioritize our er setups if<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we’re going to get volume confirmation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we’re going to get those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
other variables in play we just need to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
be there like prepared to meet that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so when we studied back after seeing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
eps we just looked back at those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
previous ers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that had already taken place in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
season and we did find a couple trends<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh first one being gap ups at a big<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
basis were being bought like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like you mentioned they usually go for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
multiple days but we also saw seasons<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
gaps out of big bases are immediately<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sold and so we weren’t just going to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
immediately buying all gap ups we just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
knew we had to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
screening filtering and watching those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
important moments<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and yeah the other trend was they’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
continuing they’re going multiple days<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so i’m gonna go into a few examples of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
how we use<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the trend data to come up with more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trades with edge because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like you mentioned like this day one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
move it’s a it’s a good trade like it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
not<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s a good trade but there’s so much<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
more edge along like this idea<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and that trade specifically that we just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s just untapped for us right now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um so you know after we saw that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this is on may 5th first week of may<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we saw bgfv gap out of a multi-year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
range<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and you know this top end being about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
20. ended up going 50 percent two<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sessions and holding 30 for a few more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um an intraday this is what it looks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like did 30 of our average daily volume<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in the first two minutes and that’s just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the sharp projection from 20<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that we got here and then within<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that opening move we were one atr higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and holding view up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and if we look at the day two move and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we talk about that measured move that i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mentioned earlier<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we were holding a range of a point on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this opening base and so that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
just like that’s a tight range for this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
after a move like this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and rr wise even a 90 measure move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
would get you about four to one rr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you end up getting five plus just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
because of the way the state traded<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
oh i must say that first child where you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
know it opened up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh let’s let me see if i can someone<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
make this bigger and zoom in when it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opened up at like 20<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i guess 21 50ish and it’ll work down to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
20<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
looks like 2020 2023 yeah um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and then that immediate snapback and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
reversal that that that right there is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that that’s an a plus set up i mean<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s a stuff for whether it’s the long<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
side or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
or downside but that’s a fantastic setup<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but when i see something like that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if i’m you know biased on the long side<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in this case<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and i see that happen off the open<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’ll be i’ll be big size um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
into that reversal and if it’s you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if you flip the chart upside down and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that stuff and then you know to the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
downside um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’ll i’ll be yeah that’s an a plus set<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
up for me it’s just it’s great and it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
came right into support rejected trap<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
shorts<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
got longs to shake out from pre-market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and then you know off to the races on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the reversal so that’s a very good setup<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to uh to playbook in itself<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
right yeah definitely the one thing i’d<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
ask uh i was just trying to think about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this specifically is how do i measure<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
your risk here because when i saw this i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
liked it a lot obviously<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but this is such a wide move compared to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
its acr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i i didn’t want to risk the wick low and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so i was a lot smaller than i could have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
been i think<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
because i don’t think that this low<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
should even be retested at this point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for something like that it shouldn’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
even it shouldn’t get below 2050<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and so in theory you want to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
pretty quick and once it gets to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
over 21 it’s it’s a it’s a that’s a like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s a fantastic buy spot so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i would i would be buying a bunch of 21<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and i’d have my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’d have a mental stop at 20 50-ish um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know depending on how it acted down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
there so i’d risk 50 cents and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and uh you know that’s yeah that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s a small amount to be risking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
based on your pre-market range based on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the move it just made off the open so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know you’re in for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for a nice trend um and and some nice<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
kind of outsized moves<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
right right okay i like that i’ll look<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
back at that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and try that but i mean look i’m more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the way i you know the way i trade is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
sort of feel and intuition and whatnot<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
it’s not it’s not so systematic i mean i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
have my system and that’s all i stick to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
um but within that it’s um i don’t i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
i i don’t incorporate too many um you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
methodologies and whatnot yeah so that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
was the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
bgfe that happened on may 5th this is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
sally beauty holdings retail name<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
may 6th gapping at a multi-year range<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
gappy at a multi-month range as well on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the daily<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and intraday opening right at this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pre-market high<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
it just took off immediately so this was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
a pretty easy opening bid<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
got good volume two atrs in i think 10<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
minutes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so i was flat into that um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and day two opening bid healthy one atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh from the opening drive very simple<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
continuation trade there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
avid is a lower volume name uh we saw we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
saw a few lower volume names like three<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
or four<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
really good reactions from names that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
acted similarly to this so i wanted to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
highlight how this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
actually goes um the setup looks really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
similar on the daily but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
intraday you’ve got to be expecting<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
something different um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
it’s got a much tighter atr and to open<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
its atr or its spread was a point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
with just over a point pre-gap atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s a problem cut you off there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um do you want to will you go back uh i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
think it’s like two slides<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah so sally beauty holdings oh yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
one more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so so yeah that one uh one uh go one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
more ahead<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the the day one day two child yeah so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that’s i mean<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know related to this as well but but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mostly with low floats um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and this is a an amazing setup for a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
potential squeeze you have a low flow<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
gap<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
gaps up on day one same child as svh you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
goes up comes off close below v while uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
relatively weak or perceived to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
be a weak close the next day the stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
holds above<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the previous day’s high the whole day so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
longs are trapped<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh uh shorts are trapped you know longs<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are in the money<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and that’s often where you’ll see a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
really nice after-hours squeeze and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and potential madness the following day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so that’s a really nice setup<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in this case too you know for a medium<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
large cap it could be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um you know i don’t know what happened<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on day three but they might<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it looks like the setup is there for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
continuation on day three but with the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
low float this is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for the long side a plus<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sorry to cut you off yeah that makes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sense yeah i don’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
count as like uh for the large caps i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
don’t see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the shorts as position but i’m sure that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
was definitely a variable for that one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um avid the lower volume name like i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mentioned<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
less than 500k volume so we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
classifying lower volume<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it did 20 percent of its averages in two<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
minutes but it’s atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s spread was almost it’s full atr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
pre-gap and so that was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh just something that made it a little<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
bit more difficult to put on size in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this one but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh it quickly did an atr and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like opening minutes and held higher and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
then day two held higher again<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and first we got pull held and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
made a new high very simple continuation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trades<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so like you mentioned um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
making this into a bigger trade seeing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that there’s a lot more to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
get involved with here just to highlight<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the goals not to catch highs or lows<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but what i’m realizing is when we do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
manage our risk in the best case<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
scenarios those best case scenarios end<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
up being<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
super important inflections that i think<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
multi-week multi-month trades can start<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
from there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and like i said earlier like it’s so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
easy intraday to say oh this is super<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
extended i should just dump it here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and i think like like you said it’s it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
responsible to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
dumping most into like those atr targets<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh at least 75 percent i think because i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
think most of our edge is just beyond<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that is in the day one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and we’re still creating the rest of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this trade um that’s going to be a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
bigger trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but right now uh i’ll just show some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
instances where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s kind of clear that uh not clear but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s clear that it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’ll just show you the trick yeah i mean<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in the future like uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
whatever size you’re using for a trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that you really you know in the morning<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
before the market opens you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’re just super confident and excited<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for this trade and you know your guts<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
telling you there’s really could be a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
nice one a juicy one um whatever size<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’d usually take just put on an extra<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
25<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and then you know that 25 isn’t the day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trade that’s the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know if this works that’s gonna be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the position i hold for two or three<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
days sort of a thing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and then trade so say you have 100<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
shares you know put on 125 shares<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trade 100 shares as the day trade as you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
your system tells you to and then the 25<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
shares is there for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know the potential for it to turn<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
into a swing and then you have a nice<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
core position<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if the stock closes strong you know add<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
another 25 shares<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
take 50 shares overnight um sort of a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
thing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but you know bigger picture doesn’t yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it doesn’t doesn’t make much of a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
difference whatever<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
extra 25 you put on so you might as well<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
do it and start playing around with um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know the swing trading idea right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
right yeah much more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
comfortable in those continuation moves<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like day two day three now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so i definitely see how that could play<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
out well with my system<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um for the for these specifically we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
looking more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like much much higher timeframe so with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um i was buying this day one move with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
about a 165 average<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
risking two points to the low and i’m<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
not thinking that this is going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
create this range right and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know have a measure move twice<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
higher go to 230.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’m at this point like intraday i was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
only looking at this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
intraday move like i could get my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
targets were like into 180 and i was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like all right that’s it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but after looking back at some of these<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
charts from these earnings that we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
traded<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in the last earnings season where this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
setup outperformed<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and told us hey this is in play there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
were some really really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
good inflections so i’m thinking of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trailing five or ten percent<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um to the 10 moving average in the daily<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and that’s just an entirely different<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
swing trade than the momentum trade that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you mentioned but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’m more confident in the momentum trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this one is going to be more of like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
let’s see how it bases and holds like a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
range higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um like it did here and so this was z<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
scalar like i had mentioned<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
from december of 2020 earlier you guys<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
saw the intraday reaction<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
upwork from um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i think it was november yeah november of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
last year i was buying this 27<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i don’t know where the error is off<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
buying this 27 um average here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i stopped out um i actually stopped i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
got stopped out a few days later i was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i ended up swinging 30 of this because i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
ended up really liking this earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and i felt like this could go but see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if they don’t have the instances and i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
don’t have all my expectations and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
scenarios set in front of me for how i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
should take the swing trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this is gonna like this is just gonna<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
happen i’m gonna get stopped out of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
lows pretty much every time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um but i think next time trailing this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh to the 10 day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on a much smaller portion and having a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
larger portion for day two day three<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s the best way for me to try it out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah and also<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know with screen time you’ll get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
better at that because you’ll know where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the stock could go if you are right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and then you’ll place your stop a little<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
bit different on these swing trades<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we’ll give it some more room because it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
works<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know again it just comes with screen<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
time and experience you’ll<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’ll you’ll see things play out and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
your trades play out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a lot a lot bigger and a lot better than<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you thought so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
naturally that will take care of itself<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i think do you have any other<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh suggestions of while we’re on that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
topic of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
besides screen time studying more behind<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that screen time getting more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
reps with those learning experiences to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
get more from the screen time with the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
earning earnings experience well<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so you know i didn’t do i i don’t trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really earnings i’ll trade like price<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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action momentum but i don’t trade it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um with um too much excitement<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but with low floats what i did<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was like six months in one year in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um i just started making lists of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh from speaking to people of like the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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top 10<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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20 low flow trades of the past three<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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four years um and then i just studied<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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all of those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so um you know there’s so many people at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the firm that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um trade large caps and earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um and you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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all you have to do is ask them to go on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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their info center or trader view and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know give you a list of like their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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top 15 or 20<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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earnings trades from last year and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you can go and look at those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because it’s impossible to find that out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on yourself by yourself you know they’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there’s way too many 7 000 stocks that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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report earnings every<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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three months so it’s hard to so you want<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to just find out from a trader the top<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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15 20 movers um that they had last year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and find that off from five traders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that’s 100<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um different trades for example and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then you can go through all of those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and and and you know playbook those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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charts uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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create a book of charts and and get some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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screen time that’s what i did with low<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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float and it helped so much<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um it definitely sped up the process<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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right right because history repeats<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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itself<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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mm-hmm definitely yeah this is just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stitch fix<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really solid er this is one of the ones<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that i studied a little closer because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this doesn’t happen often<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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where it makes this kind of move but uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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last one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was top uh pretty simple i’m risking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just over a point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and 10 moving average daily stopped me<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at about 30 about three or four points<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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higher um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that’s all i had for this presentation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but that’s just generally how we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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looking to make it a swing trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um and a higher like higher time frame<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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improving that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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past the day one and past continuation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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trades um that’s more speculative still<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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still going to try that out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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oh it’s fantastic i think it’s great<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yeah you guys you guys are doing a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really good job and i think it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s awesome that um that sheet that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’re using<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh it’s kind of filtered through your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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your charts and setups it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s fantastic it’s really really good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yeah well done<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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thank you thank you yeah i was really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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good then this is a strategy that you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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can scale up over time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um you know with options as well so it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
if you find that there’s consistency in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
edge um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
over time you can really put your foot<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on the gas with this and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the sky’s the limit hey go ahead and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
click our subscribe button so you don’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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miss<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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any of the videos they’re producing for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you and the trading community and please<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
take the time to add your feedback in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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the comment section for what videos<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’d like for us to produce next<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and what you found helpful from this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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video from all of us at smb<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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train and trade well<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

* no relevant positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this video learn how to identify trends in stocks. Ryan, a SMB Senior Trader, offers advice to an intern on an earnings trade. You don’t want to miss the invaluable exchange between the two. * no relevant positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":290,"featured_media":51232,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4189],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-free-daily-trading-video","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nHow to Identify Trends in Stocks (for lasting moves) | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-to-identify-trends-in-stocks-for-lasting-moves\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to Identify Trends in Stocks (for lasting moves) | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this video learn how to identify trends in stocks. 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