{"id":50311,"date":"2020-11-30T10:00:17","date_gmt":"2020-11-30T15:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=50311"},"modified":"2020-11-30T10:00:18","modified_gmt":"2020-11-30T15:00:18","slug":"how-retail-traders-can-trade-profitably","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-retail-traders-can-trade-profitably","title":{"rendered":"How Retail Traders Can Trade Profitably"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this extremely valuable discussion, hear from Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Mike Bellafiore, Anthony Cheung, Jason Graystone, and Darren Oglesbee. We discuss trading psychology, fundamentals impacting the current market environment and ways traders are profiting.<\/p>\nView Video Transcript<\/strong><\/span>

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what we’re going to discuss in this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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roundtable discussion it’s going to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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extremely valuable for the trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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community this is how we try to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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keep the flow of these events going just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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delivering value to the trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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community and that this is going to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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no different<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i want you guys to imagine that you’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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kind of stumbled into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the back of a restaurant into the back<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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room and there’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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some guys some kind of traders that have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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been around the block a little bit all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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discussing talking shop talking trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and you get to listen and we’re going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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go through some really important topics<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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[Music]<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’ve got dr brett steenberger who’s in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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my opinion one of the the leading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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world leading trading psychologists uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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he’s an author of a couple of books i’m<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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going to let you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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introduce yourself in just a moment um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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brett but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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insanely valuable guy to having this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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discussion<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just a talent beyond belief we’ve got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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anthony chung who’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the best fundamental analyst that i know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and you know he’s a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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real great guy he’s been to our we’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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been in one of our events before<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um you guys that came to the vault in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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london i did with mike<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and and the other guys anthony was there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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providing lots of value<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and i’ll let him introduce himself<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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briefly in just a sec<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and of course we’ve got mike bellafiori<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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who’s just too good to even<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like show up he’s just so good he’s just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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not even gonna even<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like bring his camera it’s not even<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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worth it his name’s there that’s enough<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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he was here in spirit um let’s see if i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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can make him a presenter that might<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that might work better for him that’d be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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cool so um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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dr brett steenberger do you just want to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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give us a quick introduction about what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you do and how you spend most of your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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days in the trading world<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how do i spend most of my days in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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trading world digging out of holes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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usually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um i’m a psychologist<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i teach at a medical school in syracuse<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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new york and my main work is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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as a performance coach for traders and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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portfolio managers at hedge funds<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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proprietary trading firms asset<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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management firms<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and so forth but i’m really helping<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people with their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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performance i trade stock indexes myself<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and have done so oh wow i’m gonna date<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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myself since the late 1970s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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wow so yes i’ve been in the interested<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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markets falling markets for quite a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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while<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and uh love uh trading and love working<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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with traders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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amazing excellent and it’s great to have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you here so uh anthony tell us a little<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bit about what you how you spend your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yeah well i was supposed to have a day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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off yesterday but i think when you’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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involved in markets it’s always quite<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hard to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to distance yourself especially nowadays<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i think that buying an apple watch was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the worst idea in the world<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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now i shake down the street half the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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time but um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the yeah i mean i my background is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um as a kind of macro<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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strategist analyst however you want to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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give it the title<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but uh my career started back in 2006<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i worked on kind of like a global macro<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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cross asset<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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desk where we were covering uh basically<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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scheduled things that were going on in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the market so things like right now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if if faiz or moderna come out with some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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news i’m supposed to be the guy that can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tell you everything about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how much it costs when it’s going to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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distributed what the infrastructure’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like of that firm<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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all these types of things the ability<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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then to be able to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i guess interpret news flow is kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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area of expertise and and try to help<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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traders understand what otherwise is a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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very noisy environment<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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typically for people who don’t have too<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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much in the way of a structured approach<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to these sorts of things<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it can be very intimidating i guess when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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maybe if you learn self-trading and you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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branch off of technicals and start<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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entering the world of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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macro fundamentals it’s you know where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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do you start things like that so i kind<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of spend<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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nearly all of my time helping traders in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that area<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i used to just do it for clients and now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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since i joined amplify<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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trading which is where i work now the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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last few years i’m in more to helping<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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assist and teaching on that side of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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things<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i also lecture a number of universities<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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across the uk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in this area try and help young people i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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meet are incredibly intelligent way more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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intelligent than i could ever hope to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that i meet at university<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but the the problem they have is they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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don’t have any actual<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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practical understanding of how this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stuff that they’re learning really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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applies<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a real world sense so i’m that they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bring me in basically as the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um market practitioner to try and give<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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them a little flavor for that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um and especially like real world stuff<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that they get challenged<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on when they’re looking to pursue<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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careers that otherwise they’re they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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not very good at because they’re too<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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busy<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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deep into the theory stuff so yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that’s my background<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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amazing so look thanks for both coming<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on to the discussion<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i think mike’s just having a little bit<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of a trouble with his mic i’m going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the other guy in the room is darren<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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oglesby and he’s our<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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he’s a he’s he’s one of our guys he’s uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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he’s going to be moderating this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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discussion because i’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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spoke way too much so i’m going to hand<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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over to darren who’s going to kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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kick off some discussion here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and if you guys any questions you want<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to join in um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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feel free to i’m going to try and get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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mike in as well so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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let’s go i’ll hand it over to you darren<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sounds good yeah so guys i just wanted<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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kind of provide a framework for the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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discussion because what we had is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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an internal discussion within our team a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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couple weeks ago<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and we were kind of taking this time to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reflect and look back<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at what 2020 has been and all the events<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that have happened<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and obviously nobody was prepared for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what was going to happen<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i don’t think anybody at this time last<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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year was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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structuring their positions and basing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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their trading plan on the idea that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re gonna have this uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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unknown virus you know come around and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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cause mass casualties and global<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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economic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh shutdown and so nobody was really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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prepared for that but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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even so what we found is that there were<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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kind of two narratives<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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or two stories that have come about this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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year and one is a story of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh destruction and despair of financial<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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loss<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and the other is a story of opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of record growth um and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what we’ve tried to do is kind of look<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at those the people that are in those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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two categories and identify<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know what was it about those people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that you know for 2020 it’s been a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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record year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they’ve seen record growth and they’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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been able to capitalize on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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opportunity what is about those people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that allowed them to be adaptable under<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pressure<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that allowed them to kind of make the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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necessary changes required to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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be successful in this type of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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environment and so what we wanted to do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is bring you guys on because you each<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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offer<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a very unique and valuable perspective<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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those types of issues and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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brett i might start with you with this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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question um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i think you probably agree that under<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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quote-unquote<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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normal circumstances uh trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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psychology<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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managing your emotions is a difficult<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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thing to do i know akil talked in his<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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session earlier this morning about how<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s probably<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the most difficult challenge that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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traders are going to have to overcome<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but then you add on to that this global<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pandemic uh the pressure of economic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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shutdown<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and all these different things that have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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kind of come about in in 2020<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what do you see as kind of the primary<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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challenge<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that people have had to overcome and do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you see that that’s really any different<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the normal challenges that a trader<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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might encounter<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if you want to learn three more real<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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world setups that our traders use<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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including the simple setup that we teach<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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all of our new traders and the setup<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that turned one of our traders into a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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seven<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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figure big money earner check out the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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free webinar that we’re currently<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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running<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just go ahead and click the link that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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should be appearing now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at the top right hand corner of your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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screen that will open up the free<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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registration page in a new window so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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don’t worry<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you won’t lose this video you can also<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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visit<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tradingworkshop.com to register for this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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free intensive workshop<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’re going to learn more in a couple<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of hours from this trading workshop<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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than from years of online education yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so the number one challenge for 2020<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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2020<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is not a typical year obviously and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know you mentioned about the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pandemic and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people who have succeeded in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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environment of 2020 well the real<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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problem is that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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2020 has not been an environment 2020<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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has been multiple environments<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and it’s the people who have been able<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to switch gears who have been able<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to recognize shifts in those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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environments that have succeeded<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and that that is partially an issue of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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trading psychology but not entirely<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we have to recognize different types of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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markets and market conditions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so if we just start with equities you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know early in 2020 we were grinding up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in a low vix market and we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh hit a peak in uh january and then all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of a sudden we started to make some new<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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lows<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh in um february and boom<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know the wheels came off the bus and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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volatility exploded<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but also liquidity really dried up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in a number of markets and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that completely changed the trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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environment for a number of people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then off the march lows we got a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bounce and what was everyone saying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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double dip we’re waiting for it to test<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the lows etc etc<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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well it never did and so we went into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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rising market where certain sectors<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in the equity market were strong like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tech<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh and some of the stocks benefiting<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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from a uh companies benefiting from a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pandemic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then other sectors were relatively<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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weak<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like some of the value stocks the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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small caps lagged but then more recently<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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as we have had the prospect<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of a vaccine on the horizon the rally<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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has broadened out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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significantly we see small caps<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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performing very well those value names<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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have done quite well and so the whole<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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rally is broadened creating a totally<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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different environment so we went from a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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strong rotational environment<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to what is now actually a momentum and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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trending market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and recognizing those shifts which means<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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psychologically having an open mind<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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not getting caught up in one scenario<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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ends up being super important<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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right absolutely and that’s kind of what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we do i know back in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um it was early april i think we held an<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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event<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and what we noticed at that time is like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that was like kind of the height<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of i guess it was really it ended up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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being the lows but it was the height of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the fear and the uncertainty<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and what we were telling people was hey<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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be calm you know we’ve seen<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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these we haven’t seen this specific you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know scenario on play but the the type<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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fear and panic and you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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emotion that was tied up we’ve seen that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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before so the idea was hey stay calm<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh you know be focused because there is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a lot of opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that awaits you um unfortunately for a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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lot of people i think<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that message was too little too late<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because they didn’t have like you said<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the skill set to be able to see the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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writing on the wall to see the signals<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that the market was providing and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to kind of be able to put themselves in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a position to to take advantage of that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um i kind of shifted over to anthony i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you deal a lot on the fundamental side<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and looking at those types of things<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um i would expect that even the best<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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fundamental<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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analyst was caught off guard by the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stuff that we saw this year i mean we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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oil went negative like the brokers had<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to change the way they operate right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and so you know what what did you see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you know in the early days of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
pandemic and then you know kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
from a fundamental analyst point of view<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
how did you have to shift and adapt to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
to be able to operate in this new realm<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yeah i think one of the things that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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actually was quite<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reminiscent of the financial crisis when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that was unfolding<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that i remember very specifically for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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another job that i was doing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so my job was to you know real-time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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surveillance of markets with a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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microphone broadcasting to all traders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to let them know what’s going on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i remember those periods during that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there was no news there was no catalyst<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it was just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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almost behavioral it got to a tipping<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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point where the selling took over the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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mentality set in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and the market was just going down and i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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remember at the time my boss<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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used to say to me get on the mic and i’d<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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be like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and say what i’m looking at the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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terminals and i can’t see anything<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and he’d say say something and i’d say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
say what he said just speak<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and then i used to come on and actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
during those periods of extreme<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uncertainty and fear<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh it’s almost like my job uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
was to come on a microphone on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
tannoy system into all these traders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and just be a voice of calmness<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to instill a more rational approach to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what they are doing because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you know anyone who traded them and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
there were bouts of this to a certain<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
degree when the march sell-off was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
happening<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you see these big waves of selling come<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in when you’re looking at it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in kind of real time in in the intraday<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
environment<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so a lot of it is yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
definitely obviously experience is a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
fine thing having seen that before<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
live seeing it again you kind of feel a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
little bit more naturally composed<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
to interpret that the other thing that i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
find that’s more relevant<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
particularly in the recovery is i think<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
bret hit a really good point which is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like not being too<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
married to one idea and that the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
situation the environment<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
changes um and you know that’s a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
difficult thing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
because when you’re trading obviously<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you’re you’re making a decision<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and you’re getting a tangible result on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the back of your decision-making process<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so you’re either going to be right or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
wrong<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
ultimately an adjustment process<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
obviously takes a lot of time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but for me then interpreting news is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what’s been quite difficult<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
here for people a lot of people i think<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is there’s a big disconnect obviously<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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between<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
wall street and main street and that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
difficult when you’re subjected to such<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
media<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
when all you hear about is the like in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the america at the moment<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know as far as the uk we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
concerned you guys are being ravaged<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
nationally and every state’s going into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
large degree of restrictions being<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
enforced and yet<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we hit 30k in the dow kind of yesterday<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so i think a lot of people find it hard<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to kind of pick<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what is the most influencing factor at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that moment in time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and i think yesterday was a really good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
case in point where you have a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
simultaneous string of catalysts whether<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s janet yelling being the treasury<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
secretary or biden’s getting the nod now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for the presidency<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
whatever it might be then you get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
technical breaches of key long-term<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
levels and you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
there is no other thing you need to do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
than just follow the trend and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i think sometimes people can overthink<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it to a certain degree<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
um so yeah there’s definitely<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a couple of comparatives i’d say to what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’d seen<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
working on the desk from from 2008 2009.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah if i could just jump in here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh you know you’re making great points<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
anthony in one sense what happened with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
covet is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
completely different from the 2008<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
situation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
because there we had a fundamental<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
situation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
with housing with banks and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um you could see the banking sector you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
can see the housing sector<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
unravel even before the big market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
decline<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so there’s a real fundamental basis here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this was like war breaking out the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the uh covid hitting was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
not created by central bank policy or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
anything of the sort<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what people underestimated on a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
fundamental basis i think anthony and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and i include myself here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is underestimating was the power of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
central bank reaction function<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and the power of the fiscal stimulus<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to turn the situation around uh i mean<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
really came out with a couple of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
bazookas you know when we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
hit that those lows in the march april<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
period and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
looking back on it that was an important<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
turning point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of a fundamental nature those of us just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
looking at charts<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you don’t really miss that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yeah i mean we had the uk governments<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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come out today with the spending review<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and we get to see the government level<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of what they’re predicting for their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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their bond sales uh issuance for the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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forthcoming period<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and it’s it’s more than double of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
financial crisis<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
so you’re absolutely right in context<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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this is multi-trillion dollars<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
comparative to singular trillion and the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
response has been epic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in terms of uh this time around<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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certainly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that’s for sure totally agree now what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the long-term implications of that will<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh you know hard to know yeah and a lot<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of the portfolio managers i work with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they’re monitoring inflation gauges<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they’re looking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at how steep the yield curve might be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they’re looking at inflation break evens<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
five year five year forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you have to try to get a sense of when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re pricing in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh increasing inflation so far<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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not so much<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yeah i see we got i think mike is on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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mike<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
is your audio working for you now i’m<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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here oh it’s great to have you thanks so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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much for being here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you bet thanks darren i just thanks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
jason just to kind of fill you in um i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
was talking to the guys um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know we as traders we usually take<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this time towards the end of the year to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
kind of review the things that have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
happened the decisions that we’ve made<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
try to prepare for what’s coming in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
year ahead um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and what we really saw to this year was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
kind of two different story lines where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
we had people who were just victims of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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circumstance and then people that were<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
victorious over the circumstance<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so we’re kind of talking about the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the the qualities and the things that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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separate the people who<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
managed to make this a record year a a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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year of taking advantage of opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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versus those that were just kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
steamrolled by it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and what i’d be interested to hear from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you since you have you know kind of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the wall street prop firm<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh perspective on this is what kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
challenges did you guys see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
going into that march april time frame<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and what were the discussions that you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
were having with your traders in terms<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know this being more an opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
than<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a time to be you know fearful and panic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah so we certainly weren’t fearful or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
panicked we were<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
cognizant of the uh once in a generation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’ve been trading since 1997<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and this is the best trading market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that i’ve ever seen this is better than<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh 2008 this is better than the late 90s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and probably by significant multiples<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so we recognize that and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
one of the things that uh is perhaps<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
challenging<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for prop traders i’ll just share a story<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
from yesterday so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and look these are challenging times and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i i say them with with sensitivity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
understanding that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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not everybody’s had as much opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
as we have uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
this year this has been a tremendous<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
year as a firm we’ve done<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
better than we probably ever thought we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
would do traders did better than i’m<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sure they ever thought they would do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh these are life-changing years um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in terms of profitability for these guys<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s both rewarding to see that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but we are cognizant of what’s really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
going on sure um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but our job is is to do as well as we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
as traders and yesterday um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
one of our traders hit me up in a g chat<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and you know said oh i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to the effect of oh i i blew it this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
morning<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and i have this leaderboard where i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
check everybody’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
p l i hadn’t actually noticed this this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trader<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
had been doing particularly poorly so i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
rechecked the leaderboard<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
started at the bottom and figured he’d<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
be down for this trade of hundreds of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
thousands of dollars<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and i look at the bottom of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
leaderboard i don’t find them and i go<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
up to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the line that demarcates positive from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
negative and i still don’t find him<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and then he chats me up again and he<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
says i made 200<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i should have made four to five hundred<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
thousand and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know so for the elite traders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
one of the things that they have to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
fight with is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you know making sure that they make the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
most of the opportunities<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
making sure if they leave a couple of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
bucks on the table you know the trader<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
felt like he left<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to 300 000 yesterday morning on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
table<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and he did for his skill level that you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
know they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
remain focused they don’t over trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
they don’t try and make it back they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
don’t get themselves into trouble<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that uh they they get to that place<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
where they’re focused and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
for us we we are seizing the opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the challenge is to be focused to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
open-minded<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
not to come in it’s very easy to come in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and say oh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the electric vehicle space is so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
overbought we should be shorting these<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um you want to be you want to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
open-minded oh the marijuana sector is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so overbought we should be shorting this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
oh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
how can the market possibly rebound<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we’re going to have a second wave<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and we we’re going to go test the the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
new lows<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so volatility is at levels that are not<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sustainable over the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh over the short period we should short<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that so we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
we want to be focused and open-minded<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh and and and recognize the opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and when we see the opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we want to attack and attack the moment<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
for what it is because we’re not going<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to get it again<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for a very long period of time we’re not<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
going to trade a market like this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
again probably i’m not sure when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so we’re getting our traders and dr<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
steenberger<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
helps our top traders and and all of our<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
traders with this immensely it’s being<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
focused<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s being prepared it’s being<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opportunistic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s being ready to attack when we see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it i’m being open-minded<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah i think you make a good point about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
being prepared<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
because that’s something that we’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
tried to hammer into to our clients and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
as educators it’s it’s really like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um it’s either you’re in a in a place<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
where you can take advantage of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opportunities when they present because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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most likely we’re not going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
experience markets like we’ve seen<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
over the last six months again anytime<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
soon but what we have noticed is you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mentioned 2008 uh 2009-2010 time frame<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
those presented some really big<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opportunities<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and the way that our economy is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
operating right now where everything is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
interconnected um i feel like maybe i’m<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
off base but maybe you guys can can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
expand on it i feel like we’re going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
continue to see major moves in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in kind of a similar aspect um with the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
type of government stimulus that we’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
been seeing not only in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in europe but here in the states um you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
know we’ve spent more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
with this year than in u.s history<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
combined<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like and and they’re talking about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
another couple trillion dollar plan<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
coming out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i feel like the volatility isn’t going<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to go away anytime soon<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and so what we’re trying to impress<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
upon people is that they begin to work<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on those skills and develop a plan be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
confident in their ability to analyze a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
market and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and to make those adaptations that way<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
when the opportunities do present<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that they’ll be in a position to take<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
advantage of that um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what i think is probably difficult um is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
being able to stay calm in the midst of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
all of that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and not just kind of sit it out and wait<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh doctor i might ask you what what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
advice would you give to people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
when they’re in the midst of that chaos<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
when they’re seeing the market do things<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that they’ve never seen before<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
how do you try to control yourself and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
stay calm in that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
well there’s an old saying if you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
keep your wits about you when everyone<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
else is losing theirs perhaps you’re not<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
aware of the situation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and so you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
there are occasions where you see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
something that’s unprecedented<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
whether it’s the uh drawing up of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
liquidity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
during this recent drop or or just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
extreme volatility<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if it’s something you haven’t seen<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
before how are you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
prepared in your learning and your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
experience<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to profit from it well you’re not that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what makes the unique situations unique<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and just because there’s movement<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
doesn’t mean there’s opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
movement is only opportunity if we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
understand what the f is going on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
right and there are times where we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
might not understand what is going on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the number one mandate<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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is to protect our capital we have to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stay in the game<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because eventually we’ll make sense of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it if we talk to the right people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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looking enough things eventually the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
pattern recognition kicks in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
we will make sense of it but you don’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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want to get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
caught up in the activity to the point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
where you’re trading something you don’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
understand<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and where you don’t have an edge<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah so sometimes the smartest thing to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
do is just to sit on your hands<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah right exactly exactly to sit on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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your hands<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but when you are backing off risk-taking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you want to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
double down on idea generation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you want to double down on researching<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and building the ideas<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that will be the next generation of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trades<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that will make you money uh and so you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
read and you talk to people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you study and it’s out of all that that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the next set of ideas come yeah and just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this discussion point has been very uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
relevant for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for quite recent because from a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
cross-asset class correlation point of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
view<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
there’s been a bit of a breakdown so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
just taking something simply like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a normal flight to quality bid you’d see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s something like gold<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
comparative then to say covert worries<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
increasing and you’re getting a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
different type of reaction now and say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the dollar inverse<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
relationship breaking down these types<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
of things sometimes just having the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
ability to have the self-awareness<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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and the observation being made you’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
already had some success in your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
development to get to the point to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
observe that actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the tide has turned or the sentiments<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
shifted now’s the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
best time to become a little bit more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
pragmatic or conservative<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
reassess the one thing i always say to a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
lot of the traders i talk to is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the normal pattern will<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
almost all correlations certainly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
they’re always in flux but they nearly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
always return to mean over time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s just identifying then when you’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
in that change<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and so it’s a challenge but i i think a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
good step for anyone<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
who’s in that development phase is just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the identification<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that actually and then staying true to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the fact that you’ve made that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
observation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that’s a good observation and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
acting upon it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is a good thing yeah jason the one thing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i always admire about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you and akiel and tier one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is you’re consistently putting out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to your community that our job<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is to learn so our job<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
each day even when the market is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opportunistic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is mostly to get better is mostly to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
learn<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is mostly to grow i’ll share a quick<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
story about three traders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh who two of whom work at our firm one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of them who works at another firm<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
these are three guys who all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
made over 12 million dollars in that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trading profits this year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
all of them and what do they do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yesterday that’s enough money to live on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for your entire life<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what did the three of those guys do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yesterday after they’re having this year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they all got on a separate call<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
together and traded<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the enormous opportunity in what we call<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the ev sector<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s going on in the states and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what was so awesome is that one of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
guys<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
was blown away at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
how much opportunity one of the traders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
saw during that day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so one of the traders literally saw a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
million and a half dollars of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in one trading session and the eb sector<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and one of the other guys who made over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
12 million<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it was like wow i didn’t even think i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
could make that much in a day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
got exposed to the possibilities from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this other trader<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and then the same trader who inspired<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that other trader<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
learned the setups<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that he was deploying from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
one of the guys at our firm and had<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
never made these trades before<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and is on this call<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know hitting away at this big<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
opportunity and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
now the best traders get to where they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for the most part with very few<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
exceptions because they’re always trying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to get better<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and and that is it should never stop and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it never does stop for them<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and one of these in one of these years<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they’re just numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it used to be those guys thirty thousand<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
dollars in a month was a big month<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know now five hundred thousand<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
dollars of the day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is is a good day we’re just moving the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
zeros<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and you can do that you can move the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
zeros<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
maybe one or two times if you just keep<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trying to get better<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i think it’s in that’s a good point but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
one thing that we hear from newer<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
traders as they’re getting started<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um they really focus on that dollar<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
amount and something that i’ve noticed<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
with elite traders is that they kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
look out of it as a decimal point like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
at some point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the dollar yeah the dollar amount kind<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of goes away they’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
not they’re not focused on that because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah when you do focus on that that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
when the emotions get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
involved and that’s where the fear and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the panic the greed<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sets in and they start making those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
stupid decisions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
or they they go against their plan um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so it’s happy<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it makes me happy to hear that you’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
talking about that from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
from your perspective and it’s the same<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
thing that we’re saying to new traders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that are just starting out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is focus on the process focus on you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
having a plan sticking to the plan<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
instead of focusing on on the dollar<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
amount the money figure<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um yeah it’s very interesting<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so let me ask you guys this as we as we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
kind of go into the end of the year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
starting to look into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
next year there’s a lot of different<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
things on the horizon i’m seeing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
headlines this morning about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know british economy shrinks by most<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in 300 years i’m seeing something about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
oil tanker attacked in saudi arabia and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know we got vaccine information<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
coming out we got political<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh power that’s shifting here in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
states we still have international trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
negotiations that are going on and and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it might be changing significantly in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the next few months<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um as we go into next year what are kind<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of some of those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
fundamental aspects or or keys that you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
guys are going to be watching<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um as big movers for next year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah if i could jump in here there’s a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
great comment on the chat about how<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
darren looks like conor mcgregor<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
damn<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’re on your spot that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
awesome<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s the most insightful comment i’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
heard yet today um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
okay well conor mcgregor is going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
give me the smackdown if i don’t shut up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
okay so yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so you know um you know what’s going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
matter going forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you know one of the pieces of research<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that i passed along to traders recently<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is what happens in the stock market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
when we have very few names very few<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
stocks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
showing distinctive weakness<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so for instance in my research i track<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the number of stocks making<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
three month new highs and three month<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
new lows<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i also look at common technical<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
indicators like bollinger bands<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
how many stocks end the day above their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
upper bollinger band<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
or below their lower bollinger band well<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it turns out that one of the best<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
predictors<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of upside momentum is the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
absence of weakness among stocks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in other words if you have very few<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
stocks making fresh free month lows<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
very few stocks across all indexes that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are closing below their lower bollinger<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
band<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
then nothing is weak and if nothing is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
weak<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
where is the economy going to roll over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yes you could have war breakout<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yes an asteroid could suddenly you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh smash into but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but uh barring that kind of event risk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if no sector is weak if nothing’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
rolling over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
how is the whole market going to roll<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
over so it turns out that that’s a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
pretty good predictor of upside-down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
venom the last uh several days last two<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
weeks actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we have had very few stocks making fresh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
three buck lows<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
very few stocks closing below their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
lower bollinger bands<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so that tends to be predictive of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
upside momentum 20 plus days<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
out so one of the things i’m gonna be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
looking for is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
do we start to see some sector rolling<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
do we start to see some weakness<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
somewhere<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
somewhere in the world somewhere within<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sectors in in our market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh and that will be a heads up for a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
possible rolling over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of stocks but until we see that uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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you know if if the fed’s going to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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accommodative if we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
end up getting some fiscal stimulus<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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perhaps from the new administration um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
we got a freight train here anthony i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i can almost see the your brain spinning<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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when he’s talking about uh weakness and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how do you feel about that are there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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things that are weak out there are they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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being artificially<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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held up or do they they look<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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artificially strong because of the type<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of stimulus we’ve seen<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so so for me it’s all kind of um trying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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almost reverse engineer it so as brett<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was alluding to there the fed the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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mechanisms of fiscal monetary stimulus<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know what is the chief reason of how<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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much more will be adopted<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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ultimately comes down to how the virus<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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performs because the virus will dictate<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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then the stringency of lockdowns which<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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will then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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dictate how the economy performs and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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then as a net result<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the actions that will neces will need to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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be taken or at least provided as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
guidance from the central bank and so on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so for me like when i look ahead for the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
period coming forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s then about okay with the virus and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the the market being quite amped up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
now in recent weeks on the vaccine news<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is what are the vaccines what is the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
legitimacy of them actually getting<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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regulatory<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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approval not just being effectiveness as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a vaccine to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
stored as we’ve seen with the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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difficulties of say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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some of them have had with temperatures<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and things like that but infrastructure<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
manufacturing distribution<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
phase rollouts in the order of who<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
actually gets it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
before then a more mass inoculation of a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
population<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
for me this is when i talk about all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this there’s a graph in my head<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
which is the economy’s dipped like this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
it’s gone up it’s pointing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
central banks are pretty confident with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the monumental stimulus that the economy<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is going to go like this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the shape of that recovery is what we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and that shape it changes day to day on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the back of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of these these new flow items that come<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
out so for me is that there’s a singular<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
thing that i think is above everything<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
else which is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
yes there’s there’s tail risk on a china<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
even with biden flare up and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
war in the middle east with tensions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
growing as always between saudi iran<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
things like this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but ultimately the vaccine and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the then implementation of rolling out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and the timeliness of that through 2021<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i think that will be the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the definitive or one of the definitive<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
themes that will guide<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
overall market direction but uh the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
thing that was really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
interesting about this week is of course<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s now that trump’s kind of gone and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if yelling does come in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the ground is set for a repeat of almost<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the type of approach that central banks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
adopted post-financial crisis which is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
gradual cautious and equities<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
love that environment um that’s what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
history would prove so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um i guess what the upside risk to that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
could be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
very quick approval and distribution of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a drug and a vaccine then gets<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
dealt with fairly swiftly um i just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
think when you actually get into the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
nuts and bolts of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
effectiveness and dosage and scalability<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
these types of issues<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on a pharmaceutical level for a vaccine<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s it’s it’s a challenge let’s put it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that way<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh we’re dealing with something on this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sort of global scale so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um yeah i mean it sounds all negative<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but in fact<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
negative is positive because of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
resulting factors that it leads to which<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is more stimulus in a more competitive<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
environment<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in in many in many extents<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
anthony if i could just jump in you make<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you make a number of good points uh one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of the more popular macro<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trades has been uh being long<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the countries that are coming out of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
covid quicker<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and being short those that are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
struggling longer with the virus<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so you’re looking for economies that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are going to bounce back uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
more quickly and certainly the ability<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
effectively roll out vaccines could be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
part of that equation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and could make an interesting relative<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trade in macro space<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah i mean there’s definitely even with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what we know what we’re equipped with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
already<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a fisa modernist shot is 50 bucks but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
then something coming out from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
other firms that we’ve seen like astro<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and oxford university is is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
two to three dollars a shot so if you’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
talking about the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
developed and emerging market world from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a vaccine point of view that they’re two<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
completely different extremes and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um but anthony you know my favorite<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
single ball scotch<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
which is a hell of a lot more than fifty<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
dollars yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
problem<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i’m just saying no not showing off<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mike is that is that consistent with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what you’re seeing up there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
from wall street is are all eyes on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
kovid in the vaccine is that really what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what the focus is or are you guys kind<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of looking in some other directions as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
well<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
so anthony is a much<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a better expert to lean on for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
macro ideas uh going forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s that’s that’s certainly something<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we don’t focus on we are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
looking for uh what we say you know our<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
system is to trade the stocks that are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in play<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so to us that means we’re looking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for stocks that have a news catalyst<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
behind them<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
i have some unusual news or we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
looking for stocks to have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
a technical catalyst uh perhaps they’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
getting ready to break out perhaps they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are overbought perhaps they’re oversold<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we move around to a bunch of those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
stocks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if the market overall is in play if<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
volatility is high<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
then then we will move to trading the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
overall market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but i will be the wall street simpleton<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and and tell you that is our<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
smb system<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
can i jump in mike uh you know obviously<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we work together with the sme<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh uh traders and one thing i’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
constantly emphasized is that a big<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
part of the edge among the smb traders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
not only knowing how to trade but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
knowing what to trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and finding opportunities where there is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
movement where there is volatility where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
people can make sense of it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
uh moving from one kind of stock to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
another sometimes moving to the overall<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
knowing what to trade has been<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
absolutely as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
important to the success of smb is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
knowing how to trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
thank you much better said than me thank<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you very much<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
well i’ve had my coffee<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
they should just i should just yield my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
time going forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
when we do these these joint events<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
oh it’s very interesting to get your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
guys perspective on it because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
like i said you guys each come from a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
different angle and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
obviously we deal with mostly retail<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
traders or the people that we’re working<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
with but we have seen a lot of them that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are making the move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
towards uh prop firm and going towards<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the investment side<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so if i was going to ask you guys<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if you were going to give some people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
some advice more from like retail<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
doing individual type investing um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
what what type of advice would you give<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
them from the experiences that you guys<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on how to deal with um being flexible or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
being able to adapt<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and and see opportunity as it arises<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
yeah i’ll jump in and then i’ll take my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
meds and shut up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
um just saying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um the number one predictor of success<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in various fields this comes from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
research in psychology the number one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
predictor of success is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mentoring learning from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
experienced people learning with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
experienced people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
i teach in a medical school that’s how<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
medical students become physicians<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
is by studying with actual practicing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
doctors seeing how it’s done<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and doing various rotations and you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
learn from example you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
learn from role modeling and mentoring<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so the best thing to answer your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
question that traders can do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
independent traders is join trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
communities<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if they’re not joining trading firms and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
find people to learn with to learn from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and that will accelerate your learning<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
curve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
oh well i love that i think mike was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
right i’ll just yield my time to brett<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and he’s on a roll<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
well you know i was actually thinking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
about it this morning because you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we always tell our traders that they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
need to have a plan that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they should be back tested and have a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
clear you know if-then syntax<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and that type of thing uh but on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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flip side again looking at this year<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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nobody had an iftan syntax for covet<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like you there there has to be room to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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adapt and and make some changes and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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also like you said being<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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open to continuously learning um that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really one of the reasons why we want to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bring you guys in because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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having that community having the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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insight but also benefit from the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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historical perspective<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that you guys have and also like the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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historical perspective that back testing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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brings and being able to look at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how did the market react as a whole when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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then and now um and ultimately the idea<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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shifts in the market in future months or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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years that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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instead of sitting back and looking at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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oh the things that i wish i would have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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done<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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or instead of being just steamrolled by<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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by the changes they’ll actually be able<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to look at it and kind of make some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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some predictive analysis and put<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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themselves in a position to to take<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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advantage of that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um so i know we’re we’re kind of kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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running up against the end of our time i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you guys are all very busy men and i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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don’t want to take up too much of your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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time but i would like to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we got a lot of people here and a lot of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people are going to be watching the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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recording<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um so if if guys want to find out more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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about what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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each one of you guys are doing if they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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want to follow you how how do they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how do they get in contact or follow<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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learn more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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okay thank you very much yeah so as i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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put on the chat<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh my uh blog site is trader feed<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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t-r-a-d-e-r-f-e-e-d all one word<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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traderfeed.blogspot.com<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so old school with that url<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so traderfeed.blogspot.com and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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all my contact information is there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there are also links to the articles for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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forbes that i write<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there are blog posts on trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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psychology<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and there’s a link to a free blog book<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that i wrote<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on the topic of training and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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spirituality<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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which is a different topic yeah yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so uh how do we take the ego<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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out of our trading so that’s linked up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on thetraderfeed.blogspot.com<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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site and my email address is there and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uh i welcome<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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any questions people might have awesome<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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perfect thank you anthony how about you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how can they follow<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yeah i mean they’re i guess just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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incorporating this into bobby’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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comment he’s just left which is a lot i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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guess access to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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learning how to develop fundamentals um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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certainly macro some of the stuff i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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talked about um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s not a kind of binary fixed thing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’ve got to have it’s got to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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developed over time so i do a macro<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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briefing that i put out delayed but onto<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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our amplifier trading youtube channel so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i’ll put the link in there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but the best thing to do is have a look<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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see then the type of stuff i’m talking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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about how i’m isolating certain types of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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narratives and things like that of what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i think will be in focus<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then just leave me a comment i’ll<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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always reply i’m absolutely happy to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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help<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and engage in that way on the channel no<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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problem at all um you know with the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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fundamentals my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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main advice i’d give you is that you’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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got to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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have a realistic expectation i would say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a little about a lot if that makes sense<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that allows me then to structure<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how i can interpret news and things like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that but that’s born out of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know near 15 years experience now i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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certainly wasn’t like that in the first<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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few years<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you have to kind of i think of it as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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little blocks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and right now let’s say trump presidency<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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or the u.s china trade war they’re just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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little blocks that you accumulate over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and everyone’s a singular episode that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you then put in your your data bank<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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which is up here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and it equips you better than for the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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future and you know as long as you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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research and understand each of those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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concepts as they arise<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at each point in time you will develop<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know undoubtedly over time the main<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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game then is about being consistent to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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allow yourself that time for that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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development<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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absolutely well well said and mike how<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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about you how can they how can they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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follow up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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learn more about where if you want to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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see us<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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mentor some of our prop traders in real<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you can follow us on youtube where we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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share videos<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of us doing that with our traders and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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learn some of the lessons that we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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learning about markets<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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awesome and i’ll share all those links<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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with this video today so that everybody<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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can go and learn more about you guys i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know like i said we have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we have i think probably a record number<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of traders that have come through our<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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program this year and then moved on to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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prop trading opportunities um and so i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know there’s a lot of interest in that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and i can’t think of a better place to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to send them so like i said we’ll share<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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all those links again guys thank you so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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much for coming in today<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i know this was i mean this was great<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for me i know it was great for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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everybody else you guys brought a ton of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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value uh to our session<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and so i i wish you guys the best um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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happy thanksgiving for those of you here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in the states that celebrate that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um and uh hopefully we’ll be able to do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this again sometime hey go ahead and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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click our subscribe button so you don’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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miss any of the videos they’re producing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for you and the trading community and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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please<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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take the time to add your feedback in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the comment section for what videos<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’d like for us to produce next<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and what you found helpful from this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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video from all of us at smb<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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train and trade well<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

* no relevant positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this extremely valuable discussion, hear from Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Mike Bellafiore, Anthony Cheung, Jason Graystone, and Darren Oglesbee. We discuss trading psychology, fundamentals impacting the current market environment and ways traders are profiting. * no relevant positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":290,"featured_media":50312,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4189],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-free-daily-trading-video","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nHow Retail Traders Can Trade Profitably | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-retail-traders-can-trade-profitably\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How Retail Traders Can Trade Profitably | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this extremely valuable discussion, hear from Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Mike Bellafiore, Anthony Cheung, Jason Graystone, and Darren Oglesbee. 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