{"id":50003,"date":"2020-07-20T17:27:28","date_gmt":"2020-07-20T21:27:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=50003"},"modified":"2020-07-20T17:27:28","modified_gmt":"2020-07-20T21:27:28","slug":"4-netflix-earnings-trades-that-you-wont-learn-anywhere-else","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/4-netflix-earnings-trades-that-you-wont-learn-anywhere-else","title":{"rendered":"4 Netflix Earnings Trades (that you won’t learn anywhere else)"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this video, Steve discusses how to trade Netflix (or any other momentum stock) after earnings and offers 4 possible trades that could have been made.<\/p>\nView Video Transcript<\/strong><\/span>

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today we’re going to talk about how to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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trade netflix<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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after an earnings report so if that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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topic interests you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stick around<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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[Music]<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hi i’m steve spencer i’m a partner at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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smb capital we’re a proprietary trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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firm in new york city where we trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stocks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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futures and options and one of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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things we do is specialize in trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stocks in play<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and one of the primary things that will<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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put a stock into play<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is an earnings release and we are right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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entering into the height of earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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season and one of the top momentum names<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s been one of the top momentum is for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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many years is netflix<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so i wanted to walk you through kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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my process and the process that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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professional traders will take<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um to trade following an earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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release and the cool thing about this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is there are several setups that present<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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themselves starting for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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with right after the initial earnings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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release<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the next morning in the pre-market after<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the market opens<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then intraday on that day one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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play so netflix reported earnings after<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the close<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yesterday and the market’s initial<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reaction<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was negative so what i’m doing um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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as a trader is i’m sitting at my desk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i’m listening to the squawk news service<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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report the numbers and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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every type technology stock will have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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several types of key numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that traders and investors are looking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for to kind of cue<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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off their trades based on those numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in the case of netflix<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um the big number is always going to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the subscriber additions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and any guidance they give going forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on subscriber editions<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and so they came out with a big number<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but then they guided very conservatively<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and so when that happens generally the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reaction is going to be down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but that’s not the only thing the market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is looking for the market’s also looking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know what was the cash flow what’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the cash flow going to be going forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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when all those numbers started to come<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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out it was pretty clear that this was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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not a disastrous quarter<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and if the if an initial reaction is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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very negative<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um what i’m going to do is look at the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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higher time frame the multi-week<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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30-minute chart<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and the daily chart to find spots where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people are looking to buy netflix on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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cheap because this is a very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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strong market leader momentum meme and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so the first trade that i took<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um was buying a dip into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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450 so i started to nibble into 460<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and if you can look at this longer term<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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chart here you can kind of see very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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clearly why i was buying into that area<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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based on the higher time frame chart<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then what you’re doing when you’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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buying there is you want to see the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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support at 4<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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450 you want to see it hold and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’re looking for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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generally a 10 to 20 pop off of that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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level<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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now it turns out if the news is not<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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actually that good or i should say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if it’s perceived as bad and people are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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expecting the next day to be very weak<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people will use that opportunity active<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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traders will be using that opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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after hours to get short<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um and but in this case my thought<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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process is more like these numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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aren’t that bad they’re a little<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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conservative on the guidance<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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after the initial pop let me see if it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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can make a higher low and perhaps trend<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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up a little bit in the after hours<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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eventually what happened was it got into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the 470s i got flat<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i actually left um and i moved on to the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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next setup which is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what do i want to see in the pre-market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the next day so after it’s bounced from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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450<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to the 470s i’ve gotten flat i’ll come<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in the next morning and i’ll say did it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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roll over and test the low again<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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did it hold higher did it bounce more in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the after hours and when i came in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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next morning<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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basically what happened is it got into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the 480s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it actually didn’t get the 490 the low<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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490s which there’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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potentially some resistance on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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higher time frame i actually tweeted out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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after the initial when i caught it above<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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450 and it started to hold higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i tweeted out my thought process that i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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thought i could move back up into the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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490s for anybody who was watching it and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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looking for some upside<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but getting back to the pre-market so in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the pre-market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um it’s now trading above<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um the after hours bounce high and so my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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mindset is okay<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s now above the bounce high from the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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after hours perhaps people will do some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bottom fishing because the stock is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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still down over 30 dollars<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on the gap coming in this morning and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they might push it up to 500<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to 500 510 area in between 500 and 510<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and so what we talked about in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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morning meeting was okay it’s already<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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had a pretty good balance<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re not really expecting this to go<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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positive because there was some negative<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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news there in terms of the forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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guidance on subscribers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so maybe on the open we can short it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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above 500 and look for a fade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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back into the 480s and so this trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what we call this trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is basically an open momentum to the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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downside trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and this is we’ll actually see this in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stocks like facebook<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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netflix tesla google um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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whether they gap up or down quite often<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on the open you’ll get a pretty good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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feed either way whether it’s gapping<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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down or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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gapping up from whatever the pre-market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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high was and so that’s like just a quick<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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momentum trade and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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remember that first 15 to 20 minutes the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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term that i came up with many years ago<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is i call that price discovery time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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period that first 15 to 20 minutes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you get a lot of up a lot of down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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eventually things will settle in by 10<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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o’clock usually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then you’ll get a better idea of you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know is this stock going to have a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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chance to trend up today or trend down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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today moose stocks don’t trend for the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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day they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they kind of develop levels in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pre-market in the first 20 minutes and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they move up and down off of those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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levels<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but occasionally they’ll move outside of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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those levels that have been established<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in trend<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so on the open took the trade above 1500<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on the short side<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it moved lower and then eventually i was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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looking for it to come into 1480 to see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if it would find a bid there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um and perhaps work its way back up to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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1500 again but something interesting<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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happened as the market was selling off<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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buyers were stepping in around 1485 1486<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and i noted as the market made a new low<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that there were buyers at 1486. i shared<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this with traders on the desk traders in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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real time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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one of our tools where you can hear me<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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kind of talk um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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during the day as i’m trading saying wow<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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buyers are stepping in here at 1486.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this wouldn’t surprise me<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if it worked its way back up to 1500. as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i’m filming this video um it has already<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bounced into the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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490s i’m actually getting ready to leave<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for the day<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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um but based on the accumulation that i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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saw there in the mid 480s it wouldn’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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surprise me<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if it then starts to hold above 490 it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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eventually it could finish up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at 15 excuse me 500 i’m thinking about i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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got tesla in the brain right now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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thinking it could close at um 500 or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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perhaps even above<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but the one thing that’s striking to me<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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about it is it’s been a very tight range<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for netflix overall so we covered the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reaction bounce play in the after hours<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we covered<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the short on the open um because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know quick quick down move that we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tend to see momentum stocks right in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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open before they find a bid<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the third trade was we talked about the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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buyers at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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86 the fourth trade that one that i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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actually took which i kind of skipped<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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over was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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after the initial failure at 500 um when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it goes down into the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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into the 480s now that my thesis is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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confirmed that there’s going to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sellers about 500 i’ll short into a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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retracement<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and so our first resistance area on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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morning game plan was 492 to 496. so i<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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used that 496 to reshort it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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again i was short from above 500 on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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open look for the down move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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once i see that weakness when it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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retraces back up to our first resistance<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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area<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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i shorted into 496 and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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use the morning support kind of 480 to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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490 to cover<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and now i’m looking to see for clues<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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which way it’s going to go and as i said<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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based on what i saw over the last hour<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the accumulation in the mid 480s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and now holding above 490 i believe it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
perhaps can work its way back<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
up to 500 and maybe close above there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so those are the four trades<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
um and you kind of see how they develop<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that based on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
on the on the chart as well if you’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
interested in kind of our process of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
stock selection<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
how we select stocks how we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
develop levels to trade off of them uh<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
check out tradingworkshop.com<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in addition to my stock selection<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
process which i spent 30 minutes on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we go over three trades myself and mike<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
bella fury the other partner<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
co-founder of smb capital um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
three low risk high reward setups that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
traders use on the desk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
click on the link above or check out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
tradingworkshop.com<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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