{"id":49773,"date":"2020-04-07T22:15:42","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T02:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=49773"},"modified":"2020-07-20T17:25:29","modified_gmt":"2020-07-20T21:25:29","slug":"how-to-identify-a-short-term-market-top-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-to-identify-a-short-term-market-top-2","title":{"rendered":"How To Identify A Short Term Market Top"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this video, Steve shares his thoughts on the recent price action and how to identify a short term market top.<\/p>\nView Video Transcript<\/strong><\/span>

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hey Steve Spencer partner at SMB capital<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Partner\u00a0 New York City I wanted to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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share with you a few minutes from our<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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morning meeting so what we’re trying to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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do in the morning meeting is prepare<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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members of the trading desk in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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trading community to trade on a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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particular particular day and what you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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need to understand just her frame of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reference is the majority of the trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that goes on on our – 70 to 80% PNL is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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generated from intraday trading and but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I’m also speaking with respect to my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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views on swing trading and there’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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obviously many creators on our desk got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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long term accounts and they’re putting<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on swing positions and so I wanted to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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share today because the market has had a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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significant bounce off the lows this is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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an area we’ve been targeting for a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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balance since the lows and kind of how a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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short-term trader thinks once their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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target area has been reached also<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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something to pay attention to is the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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market is asymmetrical it isn’t the same<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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when it’s going down in terms of when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’re looking for a balance versus<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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versus a top the market behaves<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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differently and we’re always going to be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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more cautious on a short term top but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but nevertheless based on the notes you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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can see from my morning game plan and in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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kind of the levels that we were using<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and my commentary we were looking for a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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short term pop right after the open and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a pullback to kind of the levels that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’ve highlighted in the game plan notes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and you want to find out more about our<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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process go to trading workshop comm<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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where I kind of review our our stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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selection process as well as three of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the top trading setups that we use on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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our podcast<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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[Music]<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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as I put in the gameplay notes kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hit the buck the balance target off of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the low basically this area right here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so and just because we hit this target<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so quickly and already doesn’t mean<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re gonna immediately do a retest at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to 64 to 65 or something but it is time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to start thinking about right ahead you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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off some of your risk if you your along<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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calls for the last week or something to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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look at puts things like that I know the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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more aggressive people that I’ve seen in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the last couple weeks were calling for I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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think the most aggressive I saw was 285<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I do have a tendency to be more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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conservative booth on the way up in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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way down but kind of see were holding<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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above 273 now a little bit but that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like my thought process so if I have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like you know 285 calls for whatever we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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put from you next month you know maybe I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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maybe I can sell some to EDS against it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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or something like that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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since they’ve gone up in price a lot<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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recently to kind of head you off some of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the risk can look at if you want to pay<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you for some puts you know pay for some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like 260 puts or something like that or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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250 vibes you could sell some to 95 this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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may be yeah that’s that make sense right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because that that might pay for a good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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chunk of it you kind of want to sell up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in an area where you just don’t really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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think the market can get to or if it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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does you definitely want to be sure and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I would think any you know anywhere<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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close to 300 you definitely would want<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to be sure and I think even here you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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want to be sure more even already<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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talking about it the 270 is so you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you don’t know how much where the bounce<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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will top out but but you want to start<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to kind of shift now that we’re 25<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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percent off the low<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so this is usually a you know you get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the move then you get some sort of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sideways in or not where you get some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sort of sideways pull back in or not and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so you never know how the patterns gonna<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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play out but well you know it’s pretty<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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much every time you get some big bounce<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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no matter what the reason for the down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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move was no matter how bad things seem<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for the world that’s the other thing I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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would notice was on the way down we were<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just getting a lot of gaps to the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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downside then we would move sideways and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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go a little bit lower this seems like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re getting the opposite so it wasn’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like if you look at the down channel<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like there’s a lot of green bees in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there like we bought it you know we gaps<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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from 247 when we gapped up and then like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the next day I’m like we got to 240<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re moving sideways this was a big gap<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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here from – this was 295 – to CH $20 gap<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there this gap here 275 to 265 so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there’s a $10 gap down a $20 gap down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the gaps on the way up haven’t been as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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big I mean yesterday was 10 and today is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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he but you get the idea so a lot of what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I’m basically saying is even though<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there’s been money in truth like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yesterday and today we moved up a lot a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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lot a lot of the up move is happening in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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gaps just like in the first I don’t know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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$40 a down 30 of the 40 was was in gaps<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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my thought is for today that we could<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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put in the high rate on the open or in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the first 30 minutes and get a decent<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pull back on even though Europe’s very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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strong yeah me neither people will start<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to talk more bullish now and now there<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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were 50 dollars off the low or 62<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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whatever it is off of the Spy’s $55 off<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the low looks like the bottoms in yeah<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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great thanks for told me the bottoms in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and you know that that should create a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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short-term top should so certainly a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pullback at least a 270 would be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reasonable it’s a pre market London the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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London open the low is 271 so even if we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like spiked up to 270 450 on the be open<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then pulled into 270<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that would be a three and a half dollar<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pullback here’s the uptrend from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yesterday it’s kind of working its way<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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up towards to 72<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this video, Steve shares his thoughts on the recent price action and how to identify a short term market top.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":290,"featured_media":49774,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4189],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-free-daily-trading-video","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nHow To Identify A Short Term Market Top | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-to-identify-a-short-term-market-top-2\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How To Identify A Short Term Market Top | 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