{"id":49737,"date":"2020-03-18T10:47:52","date_gmt":"2020-03-18T14:47:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=49737"},"modified":"2020-03-18T10:47:52","modified_gmt":"2020-03-18T14:47:52","slug":"playing-the-2020-bounce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/playing-the-2020-bounce","title":{"rendered":"Playing The 2020 Bounce"},"content":{"rendered":"

After large declines markets bounce. That is what they do. Understanding how to spot price action that is indicative of an increased probability of a larger sustained bounce is important. In this video, we take a look at just that.<\/p>\nView Video Transcript<\/strong><\/span>

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when the market is dropping and dropping<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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more and just getting obliterated<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sometimes it seems like they’ll never be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a balance but the reality is when more I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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could sell off quickly and precipitously<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there are always is a balance that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what markets do if you want to learn how<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to spot the signs of a coming bounce and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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play that bounce stick around<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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[Music]<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hi I’m Steven Spencer I’m a partner at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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SMB Capital a proprietary trading firm<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in New York City where we trade stocks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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options and futures so in today’s video<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we are going to talk about market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bounces that follow after large market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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declines understanding how to spot the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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signs that are indicative of an<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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increased probability of a larger<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sustained bounce is important after a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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huge market down move being positioned<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for a large balance is tricky but the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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risk to reward can easily be greater<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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than 10 to 1 if you’re selective on your<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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entries and understand the potential<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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upside for the market let’s look at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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recent price action in the S&P 500 via<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this pie chart and kind of talk about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the signs that we’re seeing right now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and what I’m looking for going forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to play a larger market bounce so the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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first chart that we’re going to take a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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look at is the spy daily chart and what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you can see right now after today’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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market close it’s in a very steady<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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downtrend but let’s take note of a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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couple of things the first thing is if<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we go back to the end of February the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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market was down around 286 spies we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at 286 there’s a few green days there 3<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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out of 4 days and this basically means<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that the close is higher than the market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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open that means during the day buyers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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were in control the market opened at a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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certain price it closed at I our price<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so markets controlled the price action<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for that day so we saw the more I can’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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think the balance there and then move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sideways for a few days buyers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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accumulating at 300 or so just above 300<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then we had a series of gap 3 gaps<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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lower in the next 5 trading days but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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even as we look at that downtrend what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you can see is for those days the market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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closed higher than it opened so as we’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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been moving lower 3 market hours buyers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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were attempting to move prices higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and they did on several occasions but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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these lured gaff downs have brought us<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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down to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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two-forty area now why is the 240 area<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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important it’s an area where we sold off<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to in late 2018 we went we blew through<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it we bounced back above it and then we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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had a huge market balance in late 2018<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and early 2019 so this was an area that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people had their eye on as soon as we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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started selling off above 300 it also<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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coincides with a very quick 20% down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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move from where the end of February in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the beginning of March where some people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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had been accumulating so this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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accumulating stock so this is a very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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strong down move from recent prices 20%<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and a natural support area on a higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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time frame moving out a couple of years<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so that’s why we’re focused here but at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the same time I understand the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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circumstances of how we got down to this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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level the catalyst for what’s causing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the market to sell off a global pandemic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is not really something that the markets<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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seen before and I’m very mindful that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this is not the same as some of the sell<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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offs we saw from 2014 to 2016 if I had<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to you know there were different reasons<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I don’t remember even exactly what each<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reason was for those sell offs but each<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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time we came off really hard into the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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support areas from the prior a couple of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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years I felt pretty confident that we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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would bounce from those levels in that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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case was the Spy 182 we can actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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even take a look so you can see going<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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back to 2014 to 2016 in 2014 we sold off<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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from above 200 down to 182 and we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bounced back up in 2015 and there was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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some sideways consolidation and the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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market got hammered very violently from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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about 210 to 180 in a series of two or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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three trading days but again people were<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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very fearful there but what happened was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there was a great distance in time and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what gave me great confidence to buy<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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into the low 180s in that situation is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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when time goes by and at this point it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was almost two years and you come back<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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down to a price the market essentially<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is cheaper and when the market is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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cheaper large fund managers are saying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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wow I can buy stocks now appraised<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that I was buying 20 months ago and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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fundamentally that things aren’t that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bad I think oil it sold off at that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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point but for the most part outside of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the energy industry things were going<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really well and that led to a very quick<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bounce we did revisit those levels again<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in January in February of 2016 but I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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felt even better on those two revisits<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of buying because again stocks were even<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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cheaper because the economy was doing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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well I don’t particularly remember what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the catalyst were we sold off at it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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earnings were good catalysts were good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and you know we were now 18 months I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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guess 18 months later from where we had<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bottomed in 2014 and so you’re feeling<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really good there was no global pandemic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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leading to a deep recession again again<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a key economic activity in the United<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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States is basically sharply decelerated<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I’m not sure what the you know really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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example is when this happened maybe the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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last time we had the the flu in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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early 20th century<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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maybe economic activity stopped then but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for the modern for the last let’s say 50<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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years this is really unprecedented<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what’s going on and so a mindful of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bigger picture backdrop but at the same<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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time when markets do sell-off on an<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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accelerated basis and stocks start to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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look cheaper to people and when there’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a lot of fear those are ingredients for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bounces and so we did see over the last<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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couple of days you very well could say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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as we were coming down to this 240 area<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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would not hold and if we zoom in what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you can see is over the last few trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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days we sold off on Thursday pretty hard<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to around to 46 to 47 the overnight<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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futures low I believe was below to 40<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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overnight on that Thursday the next<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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morning we gapped up quite a bit we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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gapped up to above 250 and he ended up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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rallying at the end of the day very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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strongly but that was a Friday and we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know that the last almost every weekend<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this year in 2020 we have been selling<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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off into the weekend people have been<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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concerned and the news flow over the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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weekend everyone at home glued to their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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televisions or glues glued to YouTube I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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guess<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was the thing as the news is flowing it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was very negative and you know we have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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not seen the markets asthenia and up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know since since basically since the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bounce from 286 to 312 since then every<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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$10 odd mover $15 odd move has been sold<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hard but the interesting thing to me now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and I’m starting to see a shift and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’ll see if we can get confirmation<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tomorrow in the next couple of days is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re in that two to four we gap down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Monday morning we’re halt limit down the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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market basically market stops because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re down more than seven percent and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we open we tick down and then we get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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back above 240 and we ripped to the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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upside to around 255 256 now that didn’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that didn’t sustain we were reversed in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the afternoon and closed down at 2:40 so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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coming into today what are you thinking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the markets gapping up we’ll get below<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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240 mark it’s gonna tank we’re gonna go<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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down to you know I not even sure where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the next major support would be maybe<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that 235 or something but people are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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thinking much more downside thinking you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know 15 $20 a downside at this point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there’s a lot of negativity which again<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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normally the user ingredients for a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bounce but you know did I think high<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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probability I was I was thinking okay<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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well let’s see what happens if we flush<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to 40 by a couple of bucks we actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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look at what am i morning game plan<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sheet you’ll see right here I have the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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levels on there and this is really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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important what I’m thinking is we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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coming in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re gapping higher I think we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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gapping it’s around to 44 or something<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like that and I have my three support<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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levels I have my three resistance levels<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so I can use the price action in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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first couple of hours to say are people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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interested in buying today and if they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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are interested in buying maybe this is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the beginning of something so we had 238<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and it says 3-2 42 42 as the first<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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potential support to 46 r1 to 47 and a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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half or two to fifty or three if the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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market blows through all of my support<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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areas then I start to think we’re gonna<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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fail this is not good we’re going on we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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could go to significantly lower prices<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if we get through if we get through or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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two on the open and then maybe in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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afternoon start to hold above our three<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I’m starting to think maybe this is the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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beginning<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know we’ve tested to 40 now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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yesterday we’ve tested to 40 again we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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get a close above our three this can be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the beginning of a larger balance and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I’ll get to what we need to see in order<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for that to happen so that’s what we saw<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in the charts we closed today basically<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I don’t know I actually did this chart I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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think before we close but we closed<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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above 250 and now what we need to see is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a little bit of a compression and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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volatility now this has been going on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for a couple of weeks now where we we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just haven’t had that compression since<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I guess the beginning of the month today<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is the 1617 suddenly the 17th we haven’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really seen a compression in volatility<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in two weeks so the first thing I would<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like to see is we’re having these ranges<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of about $15 I’d like to see a sub $10<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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range or a SUP even a sub $8 range<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and I’d like to see a start to hold<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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above to 54 to 55 kind of compress in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there a little bit and if we can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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compress Wednesday Thursday and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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break to the upside on on on Friday<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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include strong I think that’s a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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beginning of a larger move first<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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potential area of resistance if we zoom<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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out on the 30 minute for the last few<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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weeks what we can see is clearly I’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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exited for you there that little range<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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above 270 like 272 to 274 we had to use<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that as resistance on the support on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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way down and we actually gapped below<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that a few days ago and since then we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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have not been able to reclaim it and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this is the exact same thing I did when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we sold off to 286 I had my first<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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resistance area around 3 o 2 to 3 or 4 I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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believe then above that it was 310 312<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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very quickly we got to the second<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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resistance area and then and then<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reversed and so what we need to see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tomorrow is you know let’s say we gapped<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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down tomorrow somewhere in the mid to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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40s or something we want to quickly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reclaim to 50 we want to close above to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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54 to 55 ish we want to compress for a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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couple of days and then we want to break<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to the upside and we’re playing for a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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move to 72 to 74 if this becomes a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sustained bounce I think best case<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because of how much damage<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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have been done to the market in the near<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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term is above 280 I highlighted 285 286<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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ish I’m even like the low to 80s I think<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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would be a great move 280 I think we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at 238 was the low today so that would<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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be about a 40 for $45 move on a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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percentage basis that’s not quite 20%<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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maybe that’s like 18 percent or 1918 the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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20 percent bounce off the low that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pretty good over over a week five or six<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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days something like that so compression<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of volatility is one of the things we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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looking for the other thing that we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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started to see today is as the news is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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flowing out and so like you know one of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the things I’ll say that for myself<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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personally that I underestimated we’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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been watching for about a month very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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closely in a number of cases that have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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been developing outside the US and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there’s two websites I think I shared<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
them in a prior video perhaps I can’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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recall maybe I tweeted them out but I’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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been watching very closely like looking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at the numbers seeing how things are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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spreading and trying to get an<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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understanding of what it’s gonna look<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like when it comes to the US and I think<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because I was doing that I was a little<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bit more comfortable as the news was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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starting to flow and as as we kept on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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failing and gapping lower and lower I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was like wait a second maybe only 5 or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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10% or maybe 20% of the people in the US<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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were ever paying attention and so now as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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more and more people are starting to pay<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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attention there’s more fear building up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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but I think at this point pretty much<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the entire country with the exception<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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maybe some teenagers and some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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20-somethings or we’re not paying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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attention to these numbers and and that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that anxiety has built up so I’m not as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
worried and we’re starting to see that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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with the news flow which is there were<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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just certain announcements intraday that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re coming out you know New York City<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is made like go into it like a stay at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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home lockdown situation which they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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didn’t see in Francisco yesterday and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you could see the market just got hit<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for two or three dollars pretty quickly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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more I didn’t like that but boom it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bounced right back up from 47 to about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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50 and we even got up to 52 52 52 53 of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the spies and we saw that in a few<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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different instances the other thing is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the way that the government has been<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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communicating and handling is actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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improved it’s easy to I mean from just<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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my perspective and most people’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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perspective I mean for me it the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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information flow from the federal<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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government<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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been horrendous up until like the last<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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few days they’re just you know there is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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no pandemic there’s we’re good to go<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this was three weeks ago was like we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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have 50 cases here we’re good no problem<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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now it’s basically like this thing may<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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last through the summer and that that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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truth telling people the truth this is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
one of the things you hear from the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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experts the medical people the pandemic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
experts saying just let people know what<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the situation is and you get less panic<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and people not boarding toilet paper and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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acting crazy and so now that news flow<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and the federal level is good on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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state level it’s been good for a while<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in New York State they’ve been pretty<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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frank there and they’re having meetings<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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every day there’s a website talking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
about it so I think now that everyone<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
knows we are in a recession and the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
other thing is the federal government<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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two things number one the the Fed<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
responded on Sunday night by cutting a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hundred basis points I don’t think<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they’ve ever done that before<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and basically said we are going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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provide liquidity ten seconds on that on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the Fed the feds job is to make sure the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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credit markets function I know everyone<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
likes saying on Twitter they’re glued<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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into the stock market and making sure<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stock prices go up their job is to make<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sure the credit markets function keep<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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unemployment low and inflation down they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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did that and they’re they’re supposed to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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do that and you shouldn’t get angry that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they did that because if they don’t keep<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the credit markets open whatever we have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
our recession we’re experiencing right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
now is going to be much much worse you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
like to have a Great Depression the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
second thing you need to do to actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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deal with a contraction like this is get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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money and keep individuals hands and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that’s something that the federal the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
government can do it’s called fiscal<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
stimulus fiscal policy it was very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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difficult after the global financial<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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crisis to get anything done because it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was a Democratic president and a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Republican Congress and it was very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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difficult eventually they did get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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something done but this time you have a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Republican president you have a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Democratic House who definitely wants to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
spend the new fiscal stimulus I mean you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
got the Senate Republican Senate but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
they’ve got to actually listen to Trump<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
or he can crush them politically and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you have a like a perfect setup here for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
fiscal stimulus to happen and the news<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
flow on the fiscal stimulus it started<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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with the house passing something or a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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little rinky dinky thing but it was a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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store<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then the scent certain senators who<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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normally would say no deficits no<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
spending they’re like we’re doing 500<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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billion we’re doing a trillion and so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the exceed knowing from Congress the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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signaling from the White House is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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whatever it takes to get money in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people’s hands and there’s a lot of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people are not going to get paid over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the next few months lose their jobs<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people small businesses especially and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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then also you have to worry about the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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big business is not doing the right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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thing that’s always a problem you’ve got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to get money from the federal government<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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into people’s hands so they can pay<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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their rent pay their bills get supplies<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and keep things going for the next I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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don’t know two to five months we’ll see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how this shakes out over the next few<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
weeks but that all those things are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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lining up and so what you want to pay<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
attention to and there’s a reason I was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
talking about that way you want to pay<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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attention to in the next few days as a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
traitor and a person who’s potentially<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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putting on longer term positions you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
know for the next week two weeks is as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the news flow is coming out on the bills<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that are gonna be passed as the money is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
gonna be how is the market responding is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
it holding prices it’s just starting to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
move favorably higher and then as you’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
starting to see more numbers come out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
new york numbers are gonna go higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
cases in new york city cases in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
California cases in Washington the hot<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
spots around the country is the market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
shaking it off you know on these daily<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
updates if you’re starting to see those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
things that gives you more confidence to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
build into these positions and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
ultimately capture allured remove now<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
one final point I want to make I tweeted<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
out the other day I think was last week<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you know if we’re getting out of two to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
40 I’m going to put on longer term<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
positions in the past when we would come<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
down to major support areas I’d always<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
be like buy the dip you got to do it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this time I was more nuanced or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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conservative basically saying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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longer-term positions I’m going to do it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I wasn’t so sure I didn’t have the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
eighty percent confidence level we would<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
bounce from 240 back to 270 280 you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
I was more like probably less than 5050<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
but after today I feel like the balance<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
has shifted and I’m feeling more like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
60\/40 we can we can move to the we can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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move to the upside on a bigger<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you’re balanced and you just need to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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look look for the signs over the next<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
two days that compression and volatility<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
how we react to the news and ultimately<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a couple of other things market leaders<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you know the Microsoft’s apples how are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
they behaving are they you know holding<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
above V walk from today things of that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
nature and you put that together you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
know where your stops are gonna be you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know you have price levels to trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
against based on the price action from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the last couple of days and you know you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
have some risk reward here but there’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
upside targets that we highlighted in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the multi week chart that were showing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you right now as always hoped you learn<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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something here<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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and if you have any questions about you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
know the more up the price action that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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going on how we’re trading this right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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now balances in general please put them<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in the comment section below and if you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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want to get a better understanding of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the mean setups that we use on our desk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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check out trading workshop calm or click<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on the link above and we go into detail<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the top three restore trading setups<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that creators on our desk use to capture<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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larger moves<\/div>\n
<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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