{"id":49672,"date":"2020-02-24T14:51:54","date_gmt":"2020-02-24T19:51:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=49672"},"modified":"2020-02-24T14:51:54","modified_gmt":"2020-02-24T19:51:54","slug":"what-moves-momentum-stocks-where-to-buy-tesla","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/what-moves-momentum-stocks-where-to-buy-tesla","title":{"rendered":"What Moves Momentum Stocks? (where to buy Tesla)"},"content":{"rendered":"

In today’s video we talk about everyone’s favorite momentum stock – Tesla and highlight a catalyst that potentially could lead to the next large pullback in the stock and a good entry point for those looking to capture a larger longer term move. If you are interested in catching Tesla on the next big pullback you’ll want to watch this video.<\/p>\nView Video Transcript<\/strong><\/span>

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in today’s video we are going to talk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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about everyone’s favorite momentum stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Tesla and I’m going to highlight a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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catalyst that potentially could lead to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the next large pullback in the stock and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a good entry point for those looking to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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capture a larger longer to move if<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you’re interested in catching tassel on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the next big pullback stick around<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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[Music]<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hi I’m Steven Spencer I’m a partner at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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SMB capital we’re a proprietary trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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firm in New York City where we trade<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stocks futures in options for the most<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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part there are two things broadly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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speaking and that will create a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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sustainable move in a momentum stock the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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first thing is a real catalyst a real<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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catalyst is a piece of news that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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momentum investors and traders believe<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is a real reflection of the underlying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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performance of a company one example is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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either margin expansion or contraction<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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another example is acceleration or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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deceleration of sales growth these items<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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can create a sustainable move in either<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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direction<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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unlike other news items that don’t truly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reflect the performance of the business<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in our temporary in nature these sorts<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of catalysts can lead to a sustained<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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trend technical examples I don’t really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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need to get into you today we’ve covered<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this sort of thing in many of the other<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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videos we’ve produced and I’m sure<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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others on YouTube have discussed these<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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setups as well what I’m trying to do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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with this video is give you some insight<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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into how larger market players people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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who are managing a hundred million<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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dollars plus are moved to put on risk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I’m going to use Tesla as an example to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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illustrate this concept mainly because<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I’ve been long tassel it for about a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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year now and I prepare to add to my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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position in each of the potential real<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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catalysts that we’re going to talk about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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today as I have lied a few of these<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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examples seen in the past year you need<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to understand that when you apply the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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broader principles to momentum stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that the specific examples will be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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unique to the company we are looking at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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investors have their favorite metrics<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that they will focus on for a particular<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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company so what we look at in Pesa<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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wouldn’t necessarily be the same thing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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as Netflix for example the two most<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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important metrics investors have looked<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at for Tesla our quarterly deliveries<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and gross vehicle Morden’s quarterly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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delivery numbers give investors a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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snapshot of the growth of Tesla gross<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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vehicle margins answer the question as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to whether Tesla can be a profitable<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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company longer-term one other metric<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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investors have paid closer attention to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you since 2018 has been free cash flow<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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has Tesla<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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introduced their mass-market model three<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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investors were interested to see if the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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model three growth would allow Tesla to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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self-fund<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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future investment in front of every<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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quarterly announcement for those stats<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what I do is I game plan might reads<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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verse the expectations for those numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so I’ll come up with a bearish I’ll come<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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up with bearish scenarios I’ll come up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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with bullish in areas and neutral<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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scenarios I’ll use those estimates to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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prepare me to buy or sell as soon as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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those numbers are released it also<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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prepares me for marking mistakes what is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a market mistake you may wonder let’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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say for example Tesla releases bullish<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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delivery number they beat delivery<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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expectations by ten percent but Tesla<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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drops in price immediately following the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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release of that and piece of news this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is great with a positive catalyst like a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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strong delivery bead I want to get long<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Tesla if the first reaction is a drop in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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price when I’m able or I’m gifted by the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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market a better entry price then I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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should be I’m going to get aggressively<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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long because my risk reward is greatly<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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enhanced the same thing applies in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Reverse although getting short as a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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momentum stock moves higher on what you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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perceive as disappointing numbers tends<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to be more difficult let’s look at a few<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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charts and some recent examples of Tesla<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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delivery numbers and so we can gain some<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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insight because at the end of the video<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what I’m going to do is give you a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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preview of potentially what the q one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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delivery numbers are going to be and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what potentially could be an opportunity<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for a large pullback in Tesla we’ll be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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able to put on longer-term positions the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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first chart that we’re going to look at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is q2 2019 reaction to the delivery<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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numbers and I’ve also included the stats<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for you to take a look at so the stats<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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were they came in at 95 point 2000 in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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deliveries the estimates were 484 so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they beat that pretty handily by about<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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10 percent and they also guided for q3<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to 90 to 100 basically saying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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conservative guidance but at least in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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line with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what we had just seen and what we need<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to understand at this point when we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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looking when we’re looking at the chart<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is the prior quarter q1 was when they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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missed on the numbers and it caused the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stock basically to start a down move it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was in the high 200s at that point and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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eventually worked its way all the way<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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down to below $200 a share and so and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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actually what we’re looking at here is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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on the left side of the chart you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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see that down move from 260 all the way<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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down to 180 that’s when I started<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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building a longer-term long position and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it bounced back up and coming into q2<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and it already bounced from 180 all the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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way back up to you to 220 and so I got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in the chart here you can see we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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highlighted we circled when they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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actually announce the delivery numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you can see that day it gapped higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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above 240 I believe and started to sell<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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off but then in the coming weeks you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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see that it moved to above 260 a share<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and so I want to talk about two things<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that I mean the main purpose of this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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video I had promised on Twitter actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that I would give you an example well in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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advance of potentially where we can pick<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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up Tesla on a large or pullback and that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that catalyst is gonna happen in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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cats out of the bag now we’re gonna look<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at q2 q3 and q4 and when we do that I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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think that’s gonna prepare you and set<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you up to how to handle the q1 delivery<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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numbers that are going to come out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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probably around April 2nd or 3rd or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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something like that and remember when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re looking as we’re walking forward<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in 2019 remember what the psychology was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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coming into the queue to delivery<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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numbers the river the psychology was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really bearish the stock had sold off<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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from 300 to blow $200 a share because of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the poor q1 but also some other things<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you know musk just doing some things on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Twitter people getting confused as to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the behavior of the company and their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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CEO so there was a very negative bearish<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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tone and sent them in the psychology and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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as I think as we walk forward through<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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2019 you’ll see it was very slow the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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psychology to shift didn’t really get to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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very positive until the final month of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the year and that’s going to impact how<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we treat when delivery numbers come out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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as well so it has a decent bounce it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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above you know coming<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you can see I kind of highlighted that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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area where they were accumulating it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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between 220 and 225 before the number<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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gets reported they do the delivery<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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number they beat it pretty handily and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it gaps up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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now if the psychology was good at this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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point the thing would have gapped up and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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probably would have just gone straight<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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up to 260 but instead because the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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psychology is still pretty not great it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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gaps up and it’s actually sold but the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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good thing about it was at that point we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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had been using 225 to 220 as an area we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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wanted to buy into into a pullback so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that’s bigger picture if we zoom in and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I can show you the actual reaction when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’re trading this in the after-hours<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and the number comes out when they do a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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delivery number and they beat we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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looking to get long into a pop in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stock but it understands we don’t really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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want to pay above kind of an area that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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we’ve highlighted for where the stocks<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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been accumulated recently and so you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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see as we zoomed in as the report of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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those delivery numbers for q2 it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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immediately pops the 228 and the second<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pop takes it to above the recent high<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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which was 233 in this situation I don’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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want to be if it gaps immediately to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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above 233 I’m really not going to chase<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the stock but in this case you can see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at 4:15 when the number gets reported it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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pops to 228 it’s a number I’m<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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comfortable being long and if it holds<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there and then breaks to the upside it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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gets above the reason I have 233 that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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gonna be a momentum by and we’re gonna<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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look the basely in this case we’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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looking to play it up to 240 you can see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it got above 240 I’m in a little bit<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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later in the after hours I got to 245<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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before it fell pulled back into 240 and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so the next day our thought process was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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if it pulls back into 232 233 we’ll get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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along there and see if it starts up an<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uptrend in it and again the first chart<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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you looked at you can see that it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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actually pulled back that day they sold<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it off to the low to 30s and over the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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next couple of days it actually came in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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a little bit more but eventually the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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scrolling delivery numbers took over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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over the next two weeks and it traded up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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to 260 so in terms of the psychology not<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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being that positive what you can see is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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after they released the delivery numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for q2 you can see a bunch of analysts<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
still negative on the stock there’s a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
couple that are positive Canaccord<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
Genuity reiterated their 394 car<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
no more neutral I’m not sure why they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
were neutral with a 300 target when I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
was still at 220 with 25% of upside JMP<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
mark it outperformed 347 but look at um<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
Wedbush 230 target Tier one they say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that’s Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
does Prabhas not like trade the news use<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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their name so they say Tier one<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
reiterates underperform no one has been<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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more wrong about Morgan Stanley other<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
than JP Morgan on the stack so they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
reiterated to 25 so you vote I meant no<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Credit Suisse actually maybe they’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
been more wrong than JP Morgan they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
reiterated 189 so you have four big<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
firms putting on price targets of 192<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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230 when they just really crushed their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
delivery numbers and had positive cash<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
flow I think of about 600 million so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
psychology is still negative then we get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to q3 a couple of things we got to set<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
this up for you so the stock is still<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trading basically between 220 and 250<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
coming into the q3 delivery numbers and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a week before the q3 number delivery<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
numbers come out Elon Musk there’s a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
leaked email where he says we have a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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shot at delivering a hundred thousand<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
would be a new records for delivery so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
if they run the stock up in front of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
earnings – so you see I highlighted<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
there there’s the leaked email we might<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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hit a hundred thousand they pop it to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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two hundred and fifty dollars a share<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
and for a few days it’s being<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
accumulated above 240 which was kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a level where we highlighted for q2<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
where it had moved out so they’re<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
accumulating it and then the delivery<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
announcement comes out and it’s good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
it’s solid their guidance had been 90 to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
100 they comes out there had 97 their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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production was 96 so they actually<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
delivered more more cars than they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
produced which is strong you know they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
were above the midpoint but because of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
that musk leaked email which were they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
said they had a shot at 100 I think<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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people were thinking they were gonna do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
a hundred 102 something like that but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
the great thing about that was it gave<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
us an opportunity to again buy it at 225<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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which has been our kind of our go-to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
price for the last couple of months so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
you can see when the market opens the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
next day it drops down to 225 and we got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
along there and you can see it shakes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
off the disappointment of musk saying<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
maybe they’d hit a hundred and people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are saying wow that’s too good quarters<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in a row positive cash flow over the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
cash flow wasn’t as positive as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the prior of quarter but they’re making<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
money and went right back up to the 245<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
resistance but it choose you again QQ –<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
coming in we have the q1 disappointment<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
when they actually hit good numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
really you know positive reaction they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
ran it up quite a bit the next quarter<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it was get it moved higher already to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
242 245 disappointing delivery number<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
moves lower but again it’s still trading<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
at pretty low prices and so the next<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
morning there was an opportunity to pick<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it up at 225 now this is the big one so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we’re gonna move forward so coming into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
q4 the expectation was perhaps they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
could finally hit a hundred thousand and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if they got over a hundred thousand this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
would be a positive catalyst they report<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
production of around one hundred and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
five thousand for the quarter versus<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
ninety six the prior quarter so this is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
two quarters in a row by the way they’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
in the last two quarters they have gone<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
from production levels of 87 to 96 to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
105 so each quarter they’re moving up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
about seven eight thousand in terms of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
productions that are increasing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
production and they delivered a hundred<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and twelve thousand they basically every<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
car they produced Plus every car in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
inventory they produce they delivered<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and it was just a complete blowout you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
probably saw me on Twitter after this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
number I was actually surprised that it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
wasn’t pretty much above 600 right away<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we’ll take a look at the charts in a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
second they say they’ve delivered the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
hundred and twelve thousand and you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
see immediately the stock spikes up to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
440 the market opens and it goes to 450<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if we go to the next chart which you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
see here is coming into that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
announcement we’re at the stock been<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
trading in the priorities and you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
see that it had topped out just above<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
430 and then a few days before the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
delivery funny thing happened was neo I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
think in China keep some bad numbers in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the stock stock kind of sold off a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
little bit so in this case with the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
record delivery numbers what you wanted<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to do was as soon as it popped about 430<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
get long there and kind of see see how<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
high it was going<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
going to go we had very bullish tone we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
had they delivered everything they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
produce plus everything in inventory and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
then really what people were waiting for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
again these numbers are delivered on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
these are these are released on January<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
third is in the third week in January<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they typically are the third week three<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
weeks after the delivery number they do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
their earnings and coming into that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
earnings our thought process was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
basically there were a 5.3 billion in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
cash coming into q4 that if they got the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
six billion pretty much it would be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
bonanzas and what we just showed you was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it had run up from 400 to 450 on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
delivery numbers but meanwhile in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
three weeks from when they reported the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
delivery numbers the stock went up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
another like 130 dollars from 450 to 5<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and so it was acting like it was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
anticipating really they thought the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
financial performance was gonna be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
really good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
here’s the financial performance people<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
were expecting in dollar 60 they’d get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to 15 as I said here’s actually the cash<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
flow numbers you can see that the prior<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
quarter of the free cash flow which is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
cash flow – cap capital expenditures was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
370 well in q4 they just I mean they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
blew it out of the park they did a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
billion dollars in free cash flow and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they had over 6.2 billion in the bank of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
cash and securities and our or kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
eye on the news was if they just had 2<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
over 6 billion in cash because cash has<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
been a big deal you can see that on the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
left side in q1 they drew down from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
three point three point seven billion in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
cash the next quarter they had a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
negative 900 and they were down to two<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
point two before they get a capital<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
raise in the next quarter you can see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the capital raise plus they did 600<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
million in free cash flow and in q3 as<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they were kind of ramping up building<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the shanghai facility but the free cash<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
flow numbers came down but once they got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
above 600 600 where just by and you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
basically see if you look at this chart<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
right here what you can see is coming<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
into the number it was at 580 so it had<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
run up but the product the last chart I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
showed you was delivery number<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
nice pop got above you know 450 and over<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the next three weeks before they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
released the earnings number I mean it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
already run up a hundred and thirty<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
dollars so then we’re gonna really have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to crush these earnings numbers in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
free cash flow numbers for people who<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
want to buy it and they did also a funny<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
part of about it was the earnings squawk<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
I initially said they look they they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
missed expectations which was confusing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
because the number sounded really good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to me<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
but then you can see it was a bit of a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
delayed reaction and took about three or<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
four minutes for it to pop above 600 and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
then it held at 620 and then the second<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
leg took it to 650 and since then we<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
know what’s happened to stock created up<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to 960 came back down to 700 and buyers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are pretty much back in control as I’m<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
making this video I think he closed<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
today at nine hundred dollars a share<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
here we are the stock basically you know<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it doubled from 350 to 700 and then from<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
700 it actually went vertical to 960<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
came back down did a test of 700 again a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
few days ago they ran it up to 940 made<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a little bit of a lower high and we got<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a nice pullback yesterday to eat 60 and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
we ran it back up to 900 again so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
there’s basically the two real catalyst<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for this stock or the delivery numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they usually gets reported two to four<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
business days after the close of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
quarter and then three weeks later they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
give their earnings numbers and when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they do the earnings numbers that’s when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
they look at the gross margins of the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
vehicles and then also the free cash<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
flow it used to just be people and the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
reason why people look at the Marquee<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
gross margins and the free cash flow is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
it’s representative of the longer-term<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
health of the business and the momentum<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
hedge funds in the moat momentum<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
investors want to know you know what is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the run rate so if they did a billion<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
last quarter oh the run the annual run<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
rate if you both live that times four is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
four billion or free cash flow for a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
growth company sometimes that could be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
to treat at forty to 50 times their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
annualized free cash flow do the math<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
there right now it’s actually trading at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
forty times right around the market<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
capturing one hundred and sixty billion<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
at 50 that’s 200 billion that’s the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
stock at over eleven hundred dollars a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
share so and you know one of the curious<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
things about this stock is be the most<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
of the analysts that cover a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
are these car analysts and I’ve never<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
seen you know a technology momentum<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
stock you know people who cover like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
Netflix or Amazon and some of those<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
analysts are not good either but when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you’re when they’re covering this Tesla<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and most of them their automotive<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
analysts and even the ones were pretty<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
good on it that had like $780 targets<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they’re just not they don’t really quite<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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understand the business and so I at the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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end of the video I’m going to show you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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three places where you can watch their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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videos on YouTube that are very good<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they understand how the company the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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fundamentals if you want to prepare for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the first week of April and they produce<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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their next deliveries and then there are<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there are q1 earnings to understand the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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longer-term fundamentals of this company<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and kind of how it’s moved from 300 to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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900 I mean in the future out can move<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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higher I’ll give you three YouTube<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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channels so before we get into kind of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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talking about the deliveries for q1 and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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how to buy it into the next pullback<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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reminder we are running the 2-hour free<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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workshop we’re actually discussed for 30<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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minutes my entire process how I select<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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stocks each day and we also do three of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the low-risk high-reward trading setups<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that the top traders on our desk used to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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make money on a day-in day-out basis<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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here is a chart of the delivery numbers<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
going back the last few years in gas law<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what you can see is the one that I’d<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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circled and highlighted for you was the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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q1 we quarter that they had in 2019<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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which was basically because they had an<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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expiration of their $7,500 vehicle tax<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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credit so basically maybe 20,000 sales<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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were pulled forward to the prior quarter<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and it made q1 look unusually weak<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because of that pull forward and then in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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q2 when the growth resumed and the stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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probably should have at that point been<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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moving back up to three four hundred<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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dollars a share because the psychology<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was so negative after that q1 and all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the things that I talked about earlier<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in the video it actually took let’s see<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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November it took the baby so he took two<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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months before it started to trend higher<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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and then finally the thing that was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really got the you know the psychology<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
is so positive in Tesla right now that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that final one all the way to the right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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112 delivery number that was the final<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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piece that really got the trend to begin<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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two to six to five eighty and then they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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release their their numbers and that’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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what got it to go up to $90 a share so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the great thing about this is we finally<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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actually had a pretty good set up where<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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this thing could actually get hit pretty<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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good because q1 is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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seasonally really a weakest quarter in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the car industry people buy less cars in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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q1 we also know that they sold<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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everything out of inventory in q4<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they’ve already said that we’re going to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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produce more cars than we sell and right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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now estimates coming in to the last that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I checked was they were gonna deliver<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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105 thousand cars for q1 this seems very<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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unrealistic to me yeah the only way that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they’re gonna possibly do that if they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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is the deliver every car they produced<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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at the end of 2019 in China and they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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really ramped production in China q1 but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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guess what what’s going on in China<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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right now half of China is shut down<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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because of the coronavirus so you have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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half a China shut down I think the plant<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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in Shanghai in Tesla plant Shanghai was<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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shut down for two weeks and so you have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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those things going on with the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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seasonally we quarter<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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so basically I’ve already developed my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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own mental framework and as we get<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
closer to the first week of April I will<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
share with you via Twitter what my<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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thoughts are because right now we’re at<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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$9 a share hopefully what will happen is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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before over the next month this thing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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will pull back to 800 750 to 800 so<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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coming into that coming into that<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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delivery number if we get a weak<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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delivery number we’ll even get a sharper<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
pull back into the six hundreds now all<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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bets are off if this thing moves up to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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like a thousand eleven hundred no no<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
going in front of q1 delivery numbers is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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has only pulled back maybe I like 850 to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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900 or not even behind 50 there’s no way<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s getting me back into the six<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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hundreds but it can’t have a 10 to 15<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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percent pullback on a week q1 delivery<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
number and again I will share that with<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
you as we get into the first week of<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
April but that’s the next potential<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
catalyst short of you know I must be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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resigning from Tesla if this thing is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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gonna pull it have like a really nice<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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clean technical pullback I’m use and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that’s 10 to 15% would be what I’m<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
leaning towards unless the numbers a<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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disaster like let’s say below I’d say<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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below 90,000 deliveries maybe you would<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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get like 18 to 20 percent if they do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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over a hundred thousand even though<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that’s below the consensus word is right<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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now I think you might get a quick wick<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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it’s off to the races again and if they<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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somehow beat the current consensus which<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I would expect to come down over the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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next few weeks in the coming weeks if<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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they somehow beat 505 and somehow I do<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
110 the stock’s probably gonna go up you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know easily 10 to 15% and most already<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
trading above a thousand at that point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
but that’s gonna be the next great point<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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potentially to get in if you’re looking<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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for you know capturing a longer longer<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
term move and that’s all I’ve been using<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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these cattles for each quarter is you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
know for a spot to basically build more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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of a longer-term position hopefully for<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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those of you are interested from you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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know a longer term perspective how to<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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get involved in momentum stock we don’t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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want to chase it to the upside you can<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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use kind of this longer-term chart and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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understand the prices that I highlighted<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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there we had the top at 960 we have the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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lower high at 9:40 you can see the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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uptrend over the next few weeks it’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
gonna work its way to eat hundred<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
dollars a share if we can kind of break<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that that bigger picture uptrend you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
know we can get a pullback again to into<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
that 650 700 area oh and I promised you<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I’m sorry the three YouTube channels<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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that I promised number one solving the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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money problem the person who does this<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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channel he’s great bigger picture he<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
understands he’s been involved for Tesla<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
for years he’s going to give you really<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
good analysis kind of on the business<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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model where things are heading over the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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next few years great videos the second<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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one is known as hyper change this is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
focused on technology companies<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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disruptive companies I’d say about half<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
of his videos are related to Tesla it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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was a really nice job previewing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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potential earnings for the quarter in<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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terms of breaking down the margins and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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things like that I think I’ve<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
highlighted some of his videos in the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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past especially in October I think I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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highlighted his quarterly analysis when<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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the stock was still trading down a 300 I<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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think if people watch that video would<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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have been pretty clear that this thing<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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had the potential to go a lot higher and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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then finally the Tesla daily podcast<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
covers all the analyst upgrades and<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
downgrades where they are by the way on<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
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the analysts they’ve moved up their<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
prices now a lot of ALS not a lot but<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n
some are in the seven to nine hundred<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
range so I think the average car get has<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
probably moved up to the 550 600 so the<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
average analysts target was down at two<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
a couple months ago gonna move to 350<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
and I think now we’re in the 550’s<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if I had to guess but as those targets<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
kind of work their way up to kind of 700<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
if we can get a negative catalyst like<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the keulen q1 production delivery<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
numbers maybe that what will happen is<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
the analyst price targets will have<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
moved up to a level where then it will<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
sell off and they’ll meet and that’ll be<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
where everybody tries to get long again<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
from a longer big-picture perspective<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
see you next time<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In today’s video we talk about everyone’s favorite momentum stock – Tesla and highlight a catalyst that potentially could lead to the next large pullback in the stock and a good entry point for those looking to capture a larger longer term move. If you are interested in catching Tesla on the next big pullback you’ll want to watch this … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":290,"featured_media":49673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4189],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-free-daily-trading-video","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Moves Momentum Stocks? (where to buy Tesla) | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/what-moves-momentum-stocks-where-to-buy-tesla\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Moves Momentum Stocks? (where to buy Tesla) | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In today’s video we talk about everyone’s favorite momentum stock – Tesla and highlight a catalyst that potentially could lead to the next large pullback in the stock and a good entry point for those looking to capture a larger longer term move. If you are interested in catching Tesla on the next big pullback you’ll want to watch this ... 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