{"id":49399,"date":"2019-12-13T18:08:08","date_gmt":"2019-12-13T23:08:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=49399"},"modified":"2019-12-13T18:08:09","modified_gmt":"2019-12-13T23:08:09","slug":"how-professional-day-traders-evaluate-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-professional-day-traders-evaluate-news","title":{"rendered":"How Professional Day Traders Evaluate News"},"content":{"rendered":"

We are going to talk about how professional day traders evaluate and place trades based on a fresh news catalyst.<\/p>\nView Video Transcript<\/strong><\/span>

in today’s video we are going to talk
\nabout how professional traders evaluate
\nand place trades based on fresh news
\ncatalysts so stick around
\n[Music]\nI’m Stephen Spencer a co-founder of SMB
\nCapital a prop trading firm in New York
\nCity where we trade stocks futures and
\noptions in today’s video I will walk you
\nthrough two recent examples of large cap
\nstocks that reported earnings and how we
\nprepare it to trade them this video was
\ninspired by a recent question in the
\ncomments section on one of our youtube
\nvideos so I encourage you to ask
\nquestions and share trading insights in
\nthe comments section below our videos we
\nall will learn more together here are
\nthe game plan notes from our am meeting
\nthe first stop we are going to talk
\nabout is a DB Adobe in the game play
\nnotes I usually offer a few levels of
\ninterest that our potential support or
\nresistance and I will also provide one
\nor two highlights that caught my
\nattention from their earnings release in
\nthe case of Adobe what caught my
\nattention was the 25 percent
\nyear-over-year growth in subscription
\nrevenue that’s a strong number for a
\nlarge cap stock it is not unusual to see
\n20% plus growth and smaller companies by
\nand large larger companies will have
\nmuch lower growth rates usually below
\n10% but a strong year-over-year growth
\nrate alone is not enough to give me a
\nbullish bias on a stock I want to
\nunderstand on the higher time frame how
\nit is traded prior to the earnings
\nrelease so the first thing I do is
\nscroll back to a year ago to see where
\nit was traded I can compare how much the
\nstock has gone up in the last year
\nversus growth rate to make an informed
\njudgment whether large market players
\nwould be more likely to buy or sell the
\nshares then I’ll zoom in on a 30-minute
\nmulti week chart to see how people are
\npositions coming into the earnings
\nreleased for example I have a bullish
\nbias on a stock and it is sold off hard
\nprior to the earnings release I would
\nview that as another check in my fever
\nhas many people who sold will likely
\nhave sellers remorse and chase the stock
\nas it moves higher following the
\nearnings release as you can see in this
\ndaily chart Adobe was only up about 12%
\nfrom last fall’s high and therefore it
\nmakes sense based on strong year over
\nyear growth that it would be trading
\nhigher one of the things
\nthat I mentioned in our a meeting while
\nwe discussed the dhobi is that if a
\nstock is behaving in line with how my
\nanalysis indicated it should be trading
\nthere will be good risk or trades but
\nnothing great in the case of Adobe it is
\nacting in a way that I would expect
\nbased on strong year-over-year growth
\nand the gap higher so there will likely
\nbe a good opportunity to treat it but
\nonly what I would consider a normal risk
\naward and nothing earth-shattering as
\nyou can see it from the zoomed in
\nfive-minute chart
\nAdobe traded up to 317 after the market
\nclosed and reported earnings the next
\nmorning it’s trading above 312 in the
\npre market which you can see on the
\nright side of the chart which was above
\nthe pullback low in the after-hours so
\nfrom a purely price action standpoint we
\nwould consider this moderately bullish
\nif we look at the game plan notes you
\ncan see I’ve highlighted a few potential
\nsupport areas and only a single
\nresistance area which was the
\nafter-hours high when stocks are at
\ntheir all-time high there are no
\nresistance areas other than where the
\nstock trades after the catalyst
\ninitially in the after-hours my
\nexpectation based on the higher time
\nframe chart we reviewed in the size of
\nthe positive catalyst and additionally a
\nton of upgrades that we saw worst case
\nscenario is the stock seems to see some
\nprofit taking right on the open it so
\ncreed’s down a few dollars possibly to
\ns2 but more likely it will trade only to
\nask one and then make move higher
\nthrough the after-hours high of 317 we
\ndiscuss a few of the possible trading
\npatterns during the am meeting we do
\nthis very quickly as we need to discuss
\nfour to six stocks in about 15 minutes
\nthe process that we use to identify
\nthese stocks he’s part of the two-hour
\nfree workshop I spent 30 minutes on
\nstock selection and we also discuss in
\ndetail two of the lowest risk high
\nreward setups that we teach on our
\ntrading desk so if you have not watched
\nthe free workshop yet I highly recommend
\nyou check it out now by clicking on the
\nlink above or the link below the second
\nstock we’re gonna analyze is Costco cos
\nT this is another large cap company with
\nstrong growth so I’ll go through the
\nsame process as we did with Adobe
\nidentify the key support resistance
\nlevels based on recent price action
\ndevelop a bias based on the higher
\nframe versus the size of the catalyst
\nthat we see if we look at the daily
\nchart for cost we can see that on a
\npercentage basis it has gone up a lot
\nmore than Adobe in the past year it’s
\nmoved up from 240 to 300 which is about
\na 25% move when we look at the morning
\ngame plan notes we can see that even
\nthough it has strong sales and earnings
\ngrowth they don’t look nearly as
\nimpressive as size of the move that we
\nsaw in the past year and this is why I’m
\ninterested in being short the stock it’s
\ngone up 25 percent in the past year but
\nwe can see sales growth 5% earnings per
\nshare growth 10 percent from a bigger
\npicture perspective this is a stock in a
\nstrong uptrend and on the surface the
\nnumbers look good so my hope is with the
\nstock opening lower some people will
\ninitially buy it and it will spike up
\ninto an area to our resistance area from
\nthe morning gameplay notes and that it
\nwill offer us the best most favorable
\nrisk reward entry for the stock and if
\nnot then I’ll go to plan B in short at
\nlower prices I want to take a quick look
\nat the multi month 30-minute chart to
\nhighlight a couple of points cost has
\nfailed a few times you can see on the
\nchart above 300 since September and in
\nthe two weeks prior to earnings the
\nstock was bought in the 293 294 area
\nwhere it’s supported in late October and
\nearly November
\nthis chart shows pretty clearly the plan
\nB area to short the stock if we don’t
\nget it on our resistance areas right on
\nthe open so if it trades down not as
\nresistance we’ll go to plan B so you can
\nsee from the zoomed in chart here that
\nthe first move was down quickly it
\nflushed through s1 and then even s2 the
\ncost the first move is down it is very
\nlow probability I’ll have a chance to
\nshort it on my resistance area so I go
\nto plan B which is to short it as it
\napproached the earnings reaction low
\nfrom yesterday’s after-hours trading we
\ncan see that right there on the chart
\nit’s around 294 and so as it pops up
\ninto that that area I get short so
\nyou’re always gonna have a plan B and
\nusually a plan C stocks may go in the
\ndirection that your bias indicates
\nthey’re going to go but the path quite
\noften will not be the most likely path
\nbut will be
\nseveral that you’ve outlined in your
\ndetailed game plan before the market
\nopens as I said here we have to go to
\nplan B I want to give you an example of
\na stock with a negative catalyst that
\nhad a quick pop in the open where we
\nactually were able to trade it into our
\nresistance area here’s the chart of HD
\nit popped right on the open into 232 and
\nwe got short so we were able to short it
\non that quick pop right on the open most
\ntraders would view that as a riskier
\nentry because we entered a position
\nagainst the short-term momentum but for
\nexperienced traders who understand the
\ncatalyst as well as the key prices
\nentering against the momentum with a
\nplan is a very effective strategy but
\nregardless we need to prepare for many
\npossible price paths with their stocks
\nwe’re going to treat so to recap for you
\nwe identify the strongest points in an
\nearnings release we highlight them the
\npoints that analysts and large fund
\nmanagers will likely be focused on then
\nwe’ll look at a daily chart to judge the
\nlonger-term price action against the
\ndetails of the catalyst and finally
\nwe’ll look to see how traders and
\ninvestors have positioned themselves in
\nthe weeks prior to the catalyst release
\nall of these things combined give us a
\nedge as discretionary traders
\n<\/div>\n\"\"<\/a>
\n* no relevant positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are going to talk about how professional day traders evaluate and place trades based on a fresh news catalyst. * no relevant positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":290,"featured_media":49400,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general-comments-2","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\nHow Professional Day Traders Evaluate News | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-professional-day-traders-evaluate-news\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How Professional Day 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