{"id":42584,"date":"2015-10-29T12:17:18","date_gmt":"2015-10-29T16:17:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=42584"},"modified":"2023-05-23T17:07:50","modified_gmt":"2023-05-23T21:07:50","slug":"how-we-traded-twtr-and-how-to-trade-it-going-forward","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-we-traded-twtr-and-how-to-trade-it-going-forward","title":{"rendered":"How We Traded TWTR and How to Trade it Going Forward"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/daily-vid\">SMBU Daily Video<\/a>, Mike Bellafiore discusses how he traded TWTR and how to going forward.<\/p>\n<p>Here are the keys for TWTR:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>MAUs (Monthly Average Users)<\/li>\n<li>Innovations to make TWTR easier to use<\/li>\n<li>The success of Moments<\/li>\n<li>The Street&#8217;s view of @Jack<\/li>\n<li>TWTR as a takeover candidate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We hope this video helps you trade Twitter better.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Hs1VbVr-pvw\" width=\"600\" height=\"325\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><strong>Transcript<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Welcome to the SMBU Daily Video &#8211; how to trade Twitter. Following Twitter&#8217;s earnings report it traded down after hours quite a bit and it did so because of this reason &#8211; their monthly active users or their MAUs. They missed consensus. The consensus for MAUs was 324 million and they came in at 320 million. This is a key metric for the core strength of their business &#8211; this is what the street is most interested in for Twitter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">If we take a look at our longer-term monthly active users chart, right here you can see that Twitter has been growing but hasn&#8217;t been growing as fast as lots of people on the street want and for a growth company it&#8217;s not picking up as fast as other growth companies tend to.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Take a look at Twitter&#8217;s user growth since 2010. That growth has not been accelerating and that&#8217;s one of the reasons why it&#8217;s not doing as well as a Facebook.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">At the beginning of this month Twitter named Jack Dorsey @jack its permanent CEO. This is the first report after @jack regained the helm as the CEO of Twitter. I think it&#8217;s interesting to<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>point out that Facebook<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>has done particularly well over the past couple of years and you can see Twitter has sold off quite a bit from its highs. Facebook&#8217;s doing pretty well. LinkedIn\u2019s hanging in there but if we take a look at the chart for Twitter you can<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>see that this is well off its highs and so all of that played into how we would trade Twitter today. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">They missed on the MAUs and normally when we see a number like that we\u2019d focus on the short side but Twitter, as we show from the chart, is off a lot from its highs and Twitter as we can see from this article has a new CEO who perhaps people want to become excited about. Twitter was opening up quite a bit down so we can&#8217;t just look at MAUs and say they&#8217;re down a lot &#8211; let\u2019s get short. We have to see it in the context of the big picture.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We opened up and there was a really nice pop away from<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>$28 which I highlight on this chart. It pops up to 28.60ish area down from the lows<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>of 27.75. That pop perhaps foreshadows that there&#8217;s real buying to come. That<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>was a very significant pop right on the open. We pulled back into that area, the<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>28 &#8211; 27.90 area of support and I started a long position into that 28 &#8211;\u00a027.90 area with stops below low of day, the 27.75 area.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I started the position because we&#8217;re down a lot, to me<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>this news pattern wasn&#8217;t a finish low of day news pattern. Twitter had sold off a<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>bunch already. I did see the support on the open around that area. Risk-reward was really solid. If I was going to be wrong I wasn&#8217;t going to\u00a0lose<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>that much.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">And if I was going to be right I thought I&#8217;d definitely had\u00a0a trade up through 29. 29 was an<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>area the after hours<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>I noticed when I was trading it right after they&#8217;re released so I felt like my<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>risk-reward was really solid. I had probably 25 cents to 15 cents of<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>downside and I had a 1.50 of upside for that particular trade.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">You<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>can see that&#8217;s a good area to buy. The other area to add to that position was when it clears above 28.50 &#8211; 28.57 area. Now the momentum is going back to the upside. It started to stall a little<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>bit and roll over from the high sixties and in the fifties. It\u00a0pulled\u00a0right back into<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0VWAP<\/span>\u00a0and held up perfectly and then started its upward momentum again as it<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>clears that 50 cent area. Twitter spikes\u00a0right through that 29\u00a0area. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">For me that&#8217;s where\u00a0I took<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>most of my position off. That was the main trade that I was thinking about<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>from right on the open but there&#8217;s also another trade that you gotta think about<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 from that<\/span>\u00a028th area and also because of the facts I laid out which is filling the<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>gap trade. Buying the 28 against the lows the days for a fill in the gap,\u00a0that&#8217;s not going to have a high win\u00a0rate but if you feel like the MAU\u00a0story<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>is already baked into the cake with Twitter and you feel like there is<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>optimism with a new CEO and you feel\u00a0like the stock has really come off and you feel<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>like a lot of other social media stocks are doing really well and you feel like\u00a0Twitter is a buy-out\u00a0candidate which I think is something in the minds of lots<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>of people. That is a good area to think about trading for a fill in the gap<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0t<\/span>rade. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">I think there are people who own this stock who are<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>investors thinking that I wonder if there gonna get bought out even if Twitter<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>doesn&#8217;t do that well, even if it doesn&#8217;t become as good of a company as it can be,\u00a0right now twitter is thinking of<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>ways to make it easier for people to use their platform that is a big distinction<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>between Facebook and Twitter it&#8217;s easy to use Facebook&#8217;s platform it&#8217;s harder to use<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span>Twitter. There&#8217;s so much information that comes at people people who use Twitter<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>that the general mass wants Twitter to find ways to make it easier for them to<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>aggregate information better and they&#8217;re starting to try and do that.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">R<\/span>ecently one of the first ideas that Jack had was moments that&#8217;s their big<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>new idea that something that he certainly talked about a lot during the<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>conference call that&#8217;s a way to make it easier for you to see the trending news<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>items on Twitter without having to search everything. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Twitter has a great platform<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>but when you see ideas that are gonna make it easier for people to use their<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>platform that can be catalysts to make this stock go higher and the reason why<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>people are picking at it even though the stock is down off of high so much is<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>because a lot of people that look at Twitter think I can see a lot of ways<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>for them to improve their platform &#8230;.I can see a lot of ways to make it easier they<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>offer a great service<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>lots of people really love whether it&#8217;s a great way for people to get<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>information quickly, and so that&#8217;s what&#8217;s going on with Twitter longer-term and<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>those are the things, \u00a0potential news catalyst to look at going forward,<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>how can we make Twitter easier to use. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">There will be a lot of trading opportunities with that,<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>so that&#8217;s how we attacked Twitter a little bit on the open, two different ways to<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>play it that&#8217;s we&#8217;re looking out for Twitter going forward hope that helps<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>talk to you guys soon.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/broadcast.smbtraining.com\/smbwebinar1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-40234 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/enrolldna.png\" alt=\"smb dna\" width=\"600\" height=\"250\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/enrolldna.png 600w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/enrolldna-300x125.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n*\u00a0Mike Bellafiore is long TWTR<\/p>\n<p><script src=\"\/\/fast.wistia.net\/assets\/external\/E-v1.js\" async=\"\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In our SMBU Daily Video, Mike Bellafiore discusses how he traded TWTR and how to going forward. Here are the keys for TWTR: MAUs (Monthly Average Users) Innovations to make TWTR easier to use The success of Moments The Street&#8217;s view of @Jack TWTR as a takeover candidate We hope this video helps you trade Twitter better. Transcript Welcome to &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-we-traded-twtr-and-how-to-trade-it-going-forward\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":290,"featured_media":42597,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4189,1],"tags":[4218,4758,38,312,3531],"class_list":["post-42584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-free-daily-trading-video","category-general-comments-2","tag-dailyvideo","tag-trade-catalyst","tag-trading","tag-twitter","tag-twtr"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How We Traded TWTR and How to Trade it Going Forward | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-we-traded-twtr-and-how-to-trade-it-going-forward\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How We Traded TWTR and How to Trade it Going Forward | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In our SMBU Daily Video, Mike Bellafiore discusses how he traded TWTR and how to going forward. Here are the keys for TWTR: MAUs (Monthly Average Users) Innovations to make TWTR easier to use The success of Moments The Street&#8217;s view of @Jack TWTR as a takeover candidate We hope this video helps you trade Twitter better. Transcript Welcome to ... 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