{"id":38512,"date":"2014-08-03T13:35:58","date_gmt":"2014-08-03T17:35:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=38512"},"modified":"2014-08-03T15:15:41","modified_gmt":"2014-08-03T19:15:41","slug":"trading-lesson-how-to-trade-when-the-market-is-in-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/trading-lesson-how-to-trade-when-the-market-is-in-play","title":{"rendered":"Trading Lesson&#8211;How To Trade When The Market Is &#8220;In Play&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Short term traders can greatly increase their risk\/reward and win rate by making sure that they are in the most <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Zq1Xc6bJZ4w\">\u201cIn Play\u201d<\/a> names each day. Occasionally, the market itself becomes \u201cIn Play\u201d following a major technical break and I will trade it via index ETFs. Friday morning I shared a price on <a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/sspencer_smb\">StockTwits <\/a>\u00a0I wanted to get long the market via the SPY.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/buy-spy-191.75.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-38514\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/buy-spy-191.75.png\" alt=\"buy spy 191.75\" width=\"563\" height=\"84\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I made this SPY trade and several others on Friday which turned out to be profitable. I received the following email from one of SMB\u2019s student\u2019s asking me to clarify my thought process which I am happy to do. My thoughts are in blue.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Hi Steve,<\/p>\n<p>I followed your spy recommendations yday: simply great calls! I was wondering:<\/p>\n<p>a) Why didn&#8217;t you believe in a follow through uptrend move, maybe after a consolidation period, to levels beyond 193.5?<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">I thought that Thursday\u2019s sell caused some damage to the large caps and was likely to lead to further downside in the market in the coming days. My long idea at 191.75 was a position taken for an \u201coversold bounce\u201d. This is different in nature than a \u201ctrend trade\u201d that I would enter and look to continue to hold for a longer period of time. The 193.50 level was based on my observation that after the market closed it was bid up from around 193 to 193.50 in the after hours and was likely to be an area where the market could fail the next day. The large gap lower on Friday made this an even likelier failure area from my perspective as the distance from per-market support was almost $2. If the market hadn\u2019t gapped lower Friday I would have considered it more likely for a bounce to take us to SPY 194 or as high as 194.50.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">There were several pieces of information that I leaned on for my idea to be long for the \u201coversold bounce\u201d. Number one, following a \u201ctrend day\u201d the most common pattern I have scene for the past few years is a \u201crange day\u201d. It is very rare to see two trend days in row and therefore a large gap down most likely would see a bounce inside the prior day\u2019s range. Typically we call this a \u201cfaux inside day\u201d (a term i coined about a year ago) where we start the day inside the prior trend day\u2019s range and then move outside but eventually close inside. On Friday we actually gapped outside of Thursday\u2019s range so a trader I work with suggested we might have a \u201cfaux outside day\u201d. His play on words simply meant that he assumed the gap lower would be filled during an ensuing bounce. I also received a heads up from Brett Steenbarger that the <a href=\"http:\/\/quantifiableedges.com\/what-fridays-spy-gap-volume-action-may-indicate\/\">Quantifiable Edges<\/a> blog had done several &#8220;bullish&#8221; quant studies following Thursday&#8217;s market move.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>b) Why did you short with conviction and did you hold it all the way to the bottom(!) rather than buying a pullback?<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">I did not hold the short all the way back to the bottom of the days\u2019 range. When I established the short position I was operating under the assumption the most likely support would be above 192 where the market supported right on the Open. So I placed bids in to scale out of the majority of my short by 192.30. As it got closer to 191.75 I covered the last piece.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>c) Why, \u00a0after having cashed in on the short, did you buy back, although after such an intraday up-and-down reversal, the market seemed quite weak (at least to me)?<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">This goes back to some of the points made in my answer to part a) of your question. The odds still favored us moving back inside of the prior days range which could take us back to 193. At this point I tweeted that I was bidding 191.55 which was twenty cents lower than where I got long in the pre-market prior to the job\u2019s report being announced. Prior to the market Open I had discussed with a top trader on the desk that we had strong support 191.50-191.75, so when we took out the opening low I thought we would touch the bottom of this support range. Unfortunately, the low tick was 191.57 and I didn\u2019t attempt to \u201cpay up\u201d so I missed the $1.50 up move from there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">However, when the SPY got positive for the day again I reloaded on the short side with my largest position of the day. I had a few reasons for this. One, based on the up\/down action for the day I thought there was a good chance we would test negative again even if we closed positive. Two, I saw a bit of a divergence in the IWM and SPY and thought this would narrow by the close so I wanted to be short the SPY against my IWM long. Three, my portfolio was slightly more long than I wanted for the weekend so I was incentivized to be short some extra SPY as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Fascinating stuff, definitely a good learning session for me (I traded the DAX on the long side all day (Dax is below 200MA though) and gave back all the gains I made on Thursday on the short side, somewhat frustrating)<\/p>\n<p>have a nice weekend,<\/p>\n<p>J<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>One thing I definitely took away from Friday\u2019s trading action is that I was able to play to my strengths following a strong trend day. I\u2019m usually pretty good at judging important support\/resistance levels after the market or a stock has made a strong impulsive move. I used that skill to bid for longs and offer for shorts at the best possible prices.<\/p>\n<p>All of the trades highlighted above can be viewed in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/smb-tools\">SMB Real Time<\/a> as they occur. I&#8217;m also on a mic during the Open and Close explaining my thought process.<\/p>\n<p><i>Steven Spencer is the co-founder of SMB Capital and SMB University which provides trading education in stocks, options, forex and futures. He has traded professionally for 18 years. His email address is: sspencer@smbcap.com.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i>Steven Spencer is currently long\u00a0CHRW, CROX, EXPE, FB, GM, GPRO, GRMN, HON, IWM, GNK, LNKD, QCOM, SBUX, SPWR, SWKS, WFM, WIN, YUM\u00a0and short\u00a0ADP, DGX, GPC, KKD, MAT, NOC, PAYX, SPY, WEC, X, ZQK<\/i><\/p>\n[useful_banner_manager banners=9 count=1]\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Short term traders can greatly increase their risk\/reward and win rate by making sure that they are in the most \u201cIn Play\u201d names each day. Occasionally, the market itself becomes \u201cIn Play\u201d following a major technical break and I will trade it via index ETFs. Friday morning I shared a price on StockTwits \u00a0I wanted to get long the market &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/trading-lesson-how-to-trade-when-the-market-is-in-play\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":143,"featured_media":38514,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,8,1373],"tags":[4063,4690,4685],"class_list":["post-38512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general-comments-2","category-steven_spencer_steves_blogs","category-trading-lesson","tag-in-play-stocks","tag-trading-education","tag-trading-lesson"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trading Lesson--How To Trade When The Market Is &quot;In Play&quot; | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/trading-lesson-how-to-trade-when-the-market-is-in-play\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trading Lesson--How To Trade When The Market Is &quot;In Play&quot; | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Short term traders can greatly increase their risk\/reward and win rate by making sure that they are in the most \u201cIn Play\u201d names each day. Occasionally, the market itself becomes \u201cIn Play\u201d following a major technical break and I will trade it via index ETFs. Friday morning I shared a price on StockTwits \u00a0I wanted to get long the market ... 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