{"id":38140,"date":"2014-06-29T20:16:30","date_gmt":"2014-06-30T00:16:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=38140"},"modified":"2023-08-01T21:35:52","modified_gmt":"2023-08-02T01:35:52","slug":"enhancing-trader-performance-easy-is-not-necessarily-better","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/enhancing-trader-performance-easy-is-not-necessarily-better","title":{"rendered":"Enhancing Trader Performance: Easy Is Not Necessarily Better"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>*****David Blair, The Crosshairs Trader, is a blogger\/trader\/educator who does a wonderful job of sharing research on elite performance and how it relates to trading. Below is his latest post for the SMB trading community.***** \u2014 Editor\u2019s Note<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">\u201cMy Aunt lived to be 100 smoking 2 packs of cigarettes a day since she was 18; therefore, smoking is not bad for you.\u201d\u00a0 \u201cI have\u00a0a friend who does not believe in wearing seat belts. He has been in two accidents and walked away with but a few scratches and bruises; therefore, his belief has been\u00a0validated not once but twice.\u201d\u00a0 These statements sound really stupid do they not?\u00a0 We use statements such as these to prove something or to reinforce a belief we may also hold, but they actually prove nothing at all.\u00a0 What these statements\u00a0do prove is that we often succumb to\u00a0what is\u00a0commonly referred to as the availability bias or heuristic.\u00a0 Traders are also guilty.\u00a0 We\u00a0make statements such as \u201cyou cannot go wrong trading the trend\u201d or \u201cwhen my MACD indicator does this the stock does that\u201d\u00a0or \u201cevery third\u00a0<span class=\"aBn\" tabindex=\"0\" data-term=\"goog_339020243\"><span class=\"aQJ\">Friday<\/span><\/span>\u00a0is positive for the S&amp;P when the second\u00a0<span class=\"aBn\" tabindex=\"0\" data-term=\"goog_339020244\"><span class=\"aQJ\">Friday<\/span><\/span>\u00a0is negative\u201d.\u00a0 Or, as past investors or traders\u00a0are apt to say \u201csince I lost most of my money in the last crash I do not invest\/trade in the market anymore. I cannot trust it.\u201d\u00a0 We can even place a negative spin on a technical pattern by saying \u201csince the last three breakout trades failed, breakouts do not work.\u201d We can go on and on.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">The availability bias says we\u00a0paint a picture of the world based on information that is readily and easily available to us as if what is easy to recall is what is most likely the cause.\u00a0\u00a0And for traders, we reason that what has happened most recently is most\u00a0likely to happen again, particularly when we want to believe it can affect the outcome of the next trade.\u00a0 In reality, things do not happen more frequently just because we conceive of them more easily.\u00a0 They can happen for any number of reasons that are not so easily conceived or believed.\u00a0 We want to believe that it is OK to smoke 2 packs of cigarettes a day and live to be 100 just like we want to believe that a MACD crossover causes a stock to rise or fall.\u00a0 Basically, we underestimate the risks associated with our limited thinking.\u00a0 Smokers do die of cancer, motorists do die without seatbelts. Trends do end, stocks rise and fall for other reasons besides a MACD crossover,\u00a0not all Fridays end up after a previous down, and not all breakouts fail.\u00a0 But it is easy to believe these are so, especially when they\u00a0are making\u00a0headlines and awaken our emotions for potential gain. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">Check out the following links if you are interested in saving yourself from riskless (= wreckless) thinking associated with what is readily and dramatically available versus what is silent and lurking under the surface.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">The Classic Study on the Availability Heuristic (Tversky and Kahneman)<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">The Availability Heuristic (<a style=\"color: #1155cc;\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Availability_heuristic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wikipedia<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">What is the Availability Heuristic?\u00a0 (Psych Answers)<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">\u201cFollowing catastrophes, people are likely to overestimate how often similar events have happened in the past; people are also apt to overweight the likelihood of the recurrence of similar catastrophes in the future.\u201d (<a style=\"color: #1155cc;\" href=\"http:\/\/mindandmarket.blogspot.com\/2012\/12\/the-availability-heuristic.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mind &amp; Market<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">\u201cEvery time you hear of a lottery winner, a 100-year old smoker, or a kidnapped child, you are adding to your brain\u2019s store of available outcomes, whether or not those outcomes are truly likely. And since those outcomes appeal to our emotions, they will stick in our minds.\u201d (<a style=\"color: #1155cc;\" href=\"http:\/\/moneyning.com\/money-beliefs\/how-availability-heuristic-in-behavioral-economics-explains-your-irrational-money-choices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MoneyNing<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">\u201cAs human beings, when making decisions we often take into consideration our past experience, even when it is hardly relevant for our present and future.\u201d (<a style=\"color: #1155cc;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.hse.ru\/data\/212\/332\/1228\/20090922%20Availability%20paper%20to%20JBehFin%20preliminary.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Higher School of Economics<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">\u201cWhile it can be useful at times, the availability heuristic can lead to problems and errors.\u201d (<a style=\"color: #1155cc;\" href=\"http:\/\/psychology.about.com\/od\/aindex\/g\/availability-heuristic.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">About<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"color: #222222;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Trebuchet MS';\">Availability is easy\u00a0but is it right?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>David Blair<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>THE CROSSHAIRS TRADER<br \/>\nwww.thecrosshairstrader.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>no relevant postions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>*****David Blair, The Crosshairs Trader, is a blogger\/trader\/educator who does a wonderful job of sharing research on elite performance and how it relates to trading. Below is his latest post for the SMB trading community.***** \u2014 Editor\u2019s Note \u201cMy Aunt lived to be 100 smoking 2 packs of cigarettes a day since she was 18; therefore, smoking is not bad &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/enhancing-trader-performance-easy-is-not-necessarily-better\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":290,"featured_media":35366,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1935,456],"tags":[3441,593,1609,848,1420,144],"class_list":["post-38140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-david-blair","category-trader_development","tag-enhancing","tag-failure","tag-learning","tag-lessons","tag-performance","tag-trader"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Enhancing Trader Performance: Easy Is Not Necessarily Better | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/enhancing-trader-performance-easy-is-not-necessarily-better\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Enhancing Trader Performance: Easy Is Not Necessarily Better | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"*****David Blair, The Crosshairs Trader, is a blogger\/trader\/educator who does a wonderful job of sharing research on elite performance and how it relates to trading. 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