{"id":3793,"date":"2010-02-16T22:07:26","date_gmt":"2010-02-17T03:07:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=3793"},"modified":"2010-02-17T08:27:58","modified_gmt":"2010-02-17T13:27:58","slug":"its-probably-going-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/its-probably-going-up","title":{"rendered":"Its Probably Going Up"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I started trading AAPL around 10AM this morning.  I noticed it held its small gap from the Open and that each time it was dropping below 202 it would quickly recover.  I also noticed that each time it popped above 202.50 that it would fail to hold the bid and drop back down.<\/p>\n<p>My thought process was that AAPL had been strong on Thursday and Friday and since it held the opening gap that it would probably trade higher.  I figured that if I could establish an initial position around 202 I had at least two points of upside.  At 10:15 AAPL dropped to 202 but was only there for a few seconds.  Opportunity lost.<\/p>\n<p>At 10:20 AAPL started to trade between 202.40 and 202.50s.  I bid for some stock at 202.42 and got long.  I like when stocks start consolidating in a tight range close to their intra-day high.  Its usually a sign the stock will trade higher.  I also noticed an accumulation program.  Each time the bids would get hit around 202.40 AAPL would immediately begin to tick higher.<\/p>\n<p>I made a rookie mistake a couple of times and bought extra shares in the 202.50s.  I saw an increase in volume and concluded the buyers had lost their patience and were going to have to bid the stock higher.  I was wrong.  I dumped most of the extra shares I had bought around 202.48 because I did not want to be caught with a large position if the 202.40 dropped and it quickly traded down to 202.<\/p>\n<p>About five minutes later there was a surge in volume and I caught a one point up move.  But I had very little size.  Once AAPL clearly started to hold above 202.60 I bid for some more shares but couldn&#8217;t get hit.  As it moved higher I bid above 202.70 and couldn&#8217;t get hit.  The buy program was being more aggressive and cutting anyone who was interested in picking up shares on the bid.<\/p>\n<p>This blog is the type of post trade analysis I do every day.  I think about each aspect of significant trade I made during the day.  I review my rationale for being in the trade and each part of my execution.  I ask myself question like &#8220;Was I buying at the most favorable prices?&#8221;, &#8220;Was I aggressive enough?&#8221;, &#8220;Was I properly controlling my risk?&#8221;, &#8220;Did I take enough money out of the move?&#8221; etc.<\/p>\n<p>The idea is to fire up the synapses and make sure that when a similar trade presents itself in the future I will trade it more effectively.  Make this type of post trade analysis part of your game.<\/p>\n<p>And by the way, if you are continually bidding higher for a stock and you can&#8217;t get hit its probably going up!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/AAPL-2-16-10.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3807\" title=\"AAPL 2-16-10\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/AAPL-2-16-10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"566\" height=\"366\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/AAPL-2-16-10.png 566w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/02\/AAPL-2-16-10-300x193.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 566px) 100vw, 566px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I started trading AAPL around 10AM this morning. I noticed it held its small gap from the Open and that each time it was dropping below 202 it would quickly recover. I also noticed that each time it popped above 202.50 that it would fail to hold the bid and drop back down. My thought process was that AAPL had &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/its-probably-going-up\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":143,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7,8],"tags":[663,661,662,648],"class_list":["post-3793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general-comments-2","category-reading_the_tape","category-steven_spencer_steves_blogs","tag-going","tag-its","tag-probably","tag-up","no-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Its Probably Going Up | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/its-probably-going-up\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Its Probably Going Up | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I started trading AAPL around 10AM this morning. I noticed it held its small gap from the Open and that each time it was dropping below 202 it would quickly recover. I also noticed that each time it popped above 202.50 that it would fail to hold the bid and drop back down. My thought process was that AAPL had ... 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