{"id":31229,"date":"2013-09-10T08:38:37","date_gmt":"2013-09-10T12:38:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=31229"},"modified":"2013-09-10T19:47:34","modified_gmt":"2013-09-10T23:47:34","slug":"luck-the-unspoken-element","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/luck-the-unspoken-element","title":{"rendered":"Luck: The Unspoken Element"},"content":{"rendered":"<p dir=\"ltr\" id=\"docs-internal-guid-4387cb93-055c-4039-9205-4a0c153eb67c\">There is a quote by Seneca, a first-century Roman philosopher, that says, \u201cLuck is where the crossroads of opportunity and preparation meet.\u201d While the idea of luck as it relates to trading may seem like gambler\u2019s term, the fact is that sometimes you just get lucky. Clearly over the long run, the losses that you will incur from trading without a plan or a detailed understanding of your risk tolerance will outweigh the couple of times that you do get lucky. With that said, if you approach the market with a clear methodology for your particular timeframe, occasionally the market will reward you with a little bit of luck.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The example I wanted to share was a trade I made intraday in JOY last Wednesday (8\/28). I was watching JOY, along with some other names, as it had reported better-than-expected earnings and was In Play. I was watching $48-$48.20 level, as this was a technical level of support. I had two simple scenarios planned out that I would look to trade: 1) a push below $48 followed by a meager bounce, I would look to short; 2) a hold above $48-$48.20, I\u2019d look to get long for some kind of gap fill up towards $50. My initial instinct favored the long, as I thought the general market was due for some kind of short-term bounce. A little after 10am, I got long some @ $48.20 and then bought a little more @ $48.11 for an average of $48.16. This was still only a \u00bd lot, as I would look to add on a higher consolidation. At 11am, JOY pushed above $48.70 and then began to consolidate. This was where I was looking to add. I wanted to see a bit more consolidation via time before I added though. Unfortunately, that never happened. Apparently, they came out with some \u201cnews\u201d intraday that they would see improvement in Q4, which caused the stock to see a quick pop up to $50.48. I got flat into the quick momentum move. I did think about about fading the move for a short scalp after I had gotten flat, but I never did. The moral of the story is that if you are prepared, there will be times you will get \u201clucky\u201d by participating in a large move in a stock if you are well prepared (think AAPL\/Ichan move). But remember, this is not a game of luck, so any type of long-term success can\u2019t be dependent on it.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Daily chart of JOY highlighting 8\/28 earnings day:<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-daily-chart.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-31250\" alt=\"$JOY Sept 9, 2013 (daily chart)\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-daily-chart.png\" width=\"568\" height=\"274\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-daily-chart.png 1014w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-daily-chart-300x144.png 300w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-daily-chart-250x120.png 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 568px) 100vw, 568px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\" id=\"docs-internal-guid-4387cb93-0558-7064-fa7a-f969983ea383\">5min, intraday chart of JOY:<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-5min-intraday-chart.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-31251\" alt=\"$JOY Sept 9, 2013 (5min intraday chart)\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-5min-intraday-chart.png\" width=\"574\" height=\"244\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-5min-intraday-chart.png 1697w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-5min-intraday-chart-300x127.png 300w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-5min-intraday-chart-1024x436.png 1024w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-5min-intraday-chart-250x106.png 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 574px) 100vw, 574px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Let me know if you have any questions or comments (@MarketPicker on StockTwits).<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">No relevant positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is a quote by Seneca, a first-century Roman philosopher, that says, \u201cLuck is where the crossroads of opportunity and preparation meet.\u201d While the idea of luck as it relates to trading may seem like gambler\u2019s term, the fact is that sometimes you just get lucky. Clearly over the long run, the losses that you will incur from trading without &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/luck-the-unspoken-element\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1041,"featured_media":31251,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3379,691,3378],"class_list":["post-31229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general-comments-2","tag-element","tag-luck","tag-unspoken"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Luck: The Unspoken Element | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/luck-the-unspoken-element\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Luck: The Unspoken Element | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There is a quote by Seneca, a first-century Roman philosopher, that says, \u201cLuck is where the crossroads of opportunity and preparation meet.\u201d While the idea of luck as it relates to trading may seem like gambler\u2019s term, the fact is that sometimes you just get lucky. Clearly over the long run, the losses that you will incur from trading without ... Read More\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/luck-the-unspoken-element\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SMB Training Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/smbcap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-09-10T12:38:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2013-09-10T23:47:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/JOY-Sept-9-2013-5min-intraday-chart.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1697\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"723\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jake Huska\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@smbcapital\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" 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