{"id":22564,"date":"2012-12-16T12:03:01","date_gmt":"2012-12-16T17:03:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=22564"},"modified":"2012-12-16T12:03:01","modified_gmt":"2012-12-16T17:03:01","slug":"guest-post-reversal-rehearsal-dg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/guest-post-reversal-rehearsal-dg","title":{"rendered":"Guest Post: “Reversal Rehearsal” $DG"},"content":{"rendered":"

This guest post from experienced futures trader Bruss Bowman provides an excellent example of how to incorporate higher time frame price action into a possible lower time frame trade. It is clear from the post that Bruss in a methodical thinker who is also flexible in his thesis if price behavior fails to confirm.<\/p>\n

Reversal Rehearsal: Stock Study in DG<\/strong><\/p>\n

DG provides an excellent price reversal $Study from 12\/11\/2012 to 12\/12\/2012.\u00a0 This price pattern occurs frequently across asset classes and time-frames.\u00a0 This strategy and subsequent setups provide a high probability trading environment worthy of study.<\/p>\n

After Tuesday 12\/11\/2012 close, there was a significant probability that DG would trade higher on Wednesday.\u00a0 To determine why let\u2019s start with a daily (macro) chart analysis.<\/p>\n

What we know at the end of Tuesday\u2019s trading:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Price made a 2 month consolidation from January to March \u201912 in a tight range<\/li>\n
  2. Price broke out in march for a multi-month run higher, consolidating for several months > 46.00 before accelerating higher to > 54.00 and the high of the year.<\/li>\n
  3. Price broke the daily ascending trend-line (sharply) in July and entered a long term, confirmed, daily downtrend with several lower pivot highs and lower pivot lows.<\/li>\n
  4. In the week prior to 12\/11\/2012 price strongly rejected an attempt to move higher from 48.00, clearly breaking another ascending trend line and multiple areas of inflection line and pivot support.<\/li>\n
  5. Tuesday\u2019s break of the long term support at 46.00 came on much higher volume and traded in a clean downtrend to the long term multi-month consolidation at 43.00<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The reason for all that preliminary information is that it is *all* relevant to the probability that DG would reverse on Wednesday, 12\/12\/2012.<\/p>\n

    Price had been in a 5-6 month daily downtrend indicating strong, consistent selling pressure from big money.\u00a0 Price made an accelerated move down in the week prior to Tuesday\u2019s price action, indicating more *urgent* selling.\u00a0 Tuesday\u2019s gap below long term support at 46.00 and very high volume selling indicated even more urgent, capitulate selling.\u00a0\u00a0 Put yourself *in* the chart, after months of steady selling, price accelerates down for a week and then on Tuesday it really, really accelerates down on much higher volume.\u00a0 If you\u2019re in the chart\u2026who has inventory left to sell here at 43.00?\u00a0 Big money has been getting out of DG since July and now price is sitting right on long term (and substantial) chart support from 42.00-43.00<\/p>\n

    When thinking about significant price turns my opinion is that:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Prices stop going down when the asset runs out of sellers<\/li>\n
    2. Prices stop going up when the asset runs out of buyers.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      That\u2019s what I look for in the charts.<\/p>\n

      Therefore,\u00a0 if I look at this chart on Tuesday night I consider that there is a significant probability that DG trades higher on Wednesday because it has likely run out of big money sellers (supply inventory) *and* it is sitting on long term, substantial support.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      All this analysis has given us a *strategy*, an asset with a significant probability of behaving in a particular way.\u00a0\u00a0 This is a *small* although very important step.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      What\u2019s next?<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Now we need to game plan out various high probability *scenarios* that will confirm our strategy bias and give us likely high probability, high reward:risk trading setup possibilities.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      This scenario planning must incorporate an analysis of the long term support details from January-March as well as a detailed analysis of the support\/resistance and trend-line levels from Tuesday\u2019s trading.\u00a0 The scenario planning will be unique to your playbook and dependent on how you *see* the market behave at key inflection and trend line levels.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      The Jan\/Mar support shows inflection levels at 43.00, 42.50, 42.00\u2026note there are more support levels below 42.00 but IMO if price trades below 42.00 then it has invalidated any reversal thesis for Wednesday\u2019s trading.<\/p>\n

      In Tuesday\u2019s trading there is a *wealth* of price information (see tick chart below and mark ups)<\/p>\n

      From both the daily and tick chart my partial list of *high-level* scenarios going into Wednesdays trading would be.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Price gaps > 43.00 buy inflection support setups close to but above 43.00 and 43.50<\/li>\n
      2. Price gaps < 43.00 buy support consolidations at 42.50 or 42.00 (scalp only to 43.00, addback or re-enter if price breaks 43.00 and holds.)<\/li>\n
      3. Price gaps < 43.00 and trades back to that 43.00.\u00a0 15\/5M topping pattern short for continuation move to 42.50-42.00 and beyond (selling not finished scenario)<\/li>\n
      4. Price gaps < 43.00 and immediately snaps > 43.00 and holds, long with larger targets (shakeout scenario)<\/li>\n
      5. Price trades to 43.50 and inflection resistance from Tuesday.\u00a0 Evaluate how price trades to here to determine if sell, hold, short at this level.\u00a0 This level may hold up the long term bias for daily reversal OR not.\u00a0 Similar to 43.00.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Note that I will also tend to do a high level on price extremes as well, i.e. price < 42.00 and price to 45.50<\/p>\n

        Additional note that my personal scenarios would be much more detailed and include my own short hand for my unique playbook elements for how price sets up at support and resistance levels to provide high odds set ups.<\/p>\n

        So the five step process is:<\/p>\n

         <\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Evaluate the macro charts for a high level strategy.\u00a0 In this case DG is a text book daily reversal play<\/li>\n
        2. Mark up macro and micro time-frame charts with support, resistance and trendline levels<\/li>\n
        3. Develop a high level game plan for the asset for the day\u2019s trading.<\/li>\n
        4. Develop a detailed set of scenarios based on the game plan for the day\u2019s trading<\/li>\n
        5. Update the charts, gameplan and scenarios based on the pre-market, open + 1H trading to further stack odds on your favor for the midday and afternoon trading.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Best,<\/p>\n

          -Bruss<\/p>\n

          Daily chart *strategy* analysis.<\/p>\n

          \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

          Tick chart detail of Tuesday\u2019s trading marked up with inflection and a trend line level.\u00a0 It should be *obvious* from this chart you want to be long > 43.00 and longerer > 43.50<\/p>\n

          \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

          No relevant positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          This guest post from experienced futures trader Bruss Bowman provides an excellent example of how to incorporate higher time frame price action into a possible lower time frame trade. It is clear from the post that Bruss in a methodical thinker who is also flexible in his thesis if price behavior fails to confirm. Reversal Rehearsal: Stock Study in DG … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":143,"featured_media":22566,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,1373,15],"tags":[4676,2340,2341,1286],"class_list":["post-22564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general-comments-2","category-trading-lesson","category-trading_theory","tag-day-trading","tag-dg","tag-proper-preparation","tag-trading-training"],"yoast_head":"\nGuest Post: "Reversal Rehearsal" $DG | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/guest-post-reversal-rehearsal-dg\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Guest Post: "Reversal Rehearsal" $DG | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This guest post from experienced futures trader Bruss Bowman provides an excellent example of how to incorporate higher time frame price action into a possible lower time frame trade. It is clear from the post that Bruss in a methodical thinker who is also flexible in his thesis if price behavior fails to confirm. Reversal Rehearsal: Stock Study in DG ... 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