{"id":16001,"date":"2011-12-15T14:26:59","date_gmt":"2011-12-15T19:26:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=16001"},"modified":"2011-12-15T15:03:42","modified_gmt":"2011-12-15T20:03:42","slug":"how-to-lose-all-your-money","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-to-lose-all-your-money","title":{"rendered":"How To Lose All Your Money"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

We have one more major thing to look at as we build out our casino\u2014volatility.\u00a0 We know the house edge for every game, but we also need to know some basic statistics before we open the doors of our casino.\u00a0 Let\u2019s just focus on standard deviations for this discussion and how they affect our returns, and the bettor\u2019s returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Game<\/strong><\/td>\nHouse Edge<\/strong><\/td>\nVolatility (Standard Deviation)<\/strong><\/td>\nHands Per Hour<\/strong><\/td>\nRevenue Per Hour Per Bettor<\/strong><\/td>\nRevenue Per Hour<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Baccarat<\/td>\n1.2%<\/td>\n1.0%<\/td>\n72<\/td>\n$8.64<\/td>\n$86.40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Black Jack<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n1.2%<\/td>\n70<\/td>\n$5.60<\/td>\n$28.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Craps<\/td>\n1.6%<\/td>\n1.1%<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n$7.68<\/td>\n$76.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Roulette<\/td>\n5.3%<\/td>\nBet Dependent<\/td>\n38<\/td>\n$20.14<\/td>\n$201.40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Let\u2019s use Craps as the example.\u00a0 At one standard deviation which will encompass about 68% of all possible outcomes, the range of the edge becomes 0.5% – 2.7%, or in other words, for every $10 that the better places, he can expect to lose somewhere between $0.05 – $0.27, with an average loss of $0.16.\u00a0 Stretching it all the way out to three standard deviations which encompasses 99.7% of all outcomes, the range becomes a $0.17 gain to a $0.49 loss.\u00a0 And of course there will always be the very big winner, but that doesn\u2019t change the overall statistics.<\/p>\n

So what might a P&L curve for the casino look like with 100 rolls of the dice?\u00a0 It is almost a straight line using a trade generator, which of course is what the casino likes.\u00a0 And it is also what we like in building a trading system that will try to emulate a casino, but it is a lot harder to achieve than the fixed odds of rolling the dice.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

So here is what too many bettors ignore:\u00a0 If they bet over and over again, the average edge is what they can expect\u2014they will on average lose $0.16 per every $10 they bet.\u00a0 Yes, there will be winning strings and losing strings, but in the end it will average a $0.16 loss per roll and their loss will look pretty much like the casino\u2019s P&L curve in reverse.\u00a0 And what about all those betting systems like Martingale, reverse Martingale, and countless others?\u00a0 All they can and will do is either slow down or speed up the rate at which the bettor loses all his money\u2014or even cap how much he can win while leaving the risk of losing it all intact.\u00a0 The odds don\u2019t change, only how the bets are placed, which in the trading world is simply called money management.<\/p>\n

In our world of trading, the risk of ruin comes down to leverage combined with the statistics behind our trading system.\u00a0 Of course we must have a positive expectancy which the bettor never has (remember, we are the casino, not the bettor) or we wouldn\u2019t be trading our system, so the question is how much money should we have in our account and what is the proper position size for the inherent risk of our system.\u00a0 We\u2019ll go into all the statistics in a future article, including position sizing, but want to limit our focus to average returns and standard deviations\u2014volatility\u2014for now..<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at two different scenarios\u2014both using a simulated account from one of our FX trading systems:<\/p>\n

1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The first is a basic trading system that makes OK money trading EURUSD in a simulated account (we\u2019ll use just one contract for these examples), but it\u00a0 is pretty volatile, so using leverage as is the norm in the FX world could easily wipe out our account.\u00a0 In this case, our average gain is $29.83 per trade (unleveraged) with a standard deviation of $802.52.\u00a0 Using these numbers, we can use the trade generator to simulate what a P&L for 100 trades might look like\u2014a couple of different runs with each individual trade outcome generated totally at random using the average and standard deviation.\u00a0 Don\u2019t focus so much on the ending amounts which are comparable, but rather on the paths we take to get there.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

These are wildly different equity curves, but both are possible with the average return and standard deviation pair.\u00a0 Would you trade it? Hopefully you answered NO after looking at nothing more than the draw downs\u2014there would be a lot of sleepless nights even without leverage.<\/p>\n

2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 So how can we make it better\u2014a lot better?\u00a0 The first thing we want to do is to squeeze out as much volatility as possible since we really do want to use leverage without running a high risk of ruin, so we tested many combinations of stops and targets and ended with a strategy that scalps fairly often, uses relatively tight stops, and consistently has a positive return.\u00a0 Boring\u2014yes, but as we have said before, boring is good.\u00a0 Same underlying signals with an average gain of $80.06 and a standard deviation of $405.59.\u00a0 Let\u2019s look at just two cases from the trade generator\u2014you\u2019ll get the idea.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The total returns are better which is great, but even better is that the equity curves are much smoother and predictable which gives us more opportunity to use some leverage to really enhance returns while keeping the risk of ruin in check.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s summarize for a minute where we are on our path to building a trading system:<\/p>\n

1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0It all starts with an idea<\/p>\n

2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 That we turn into a set of rules<\/p>\n

3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 And test the dickens out of.\u00a0 It is pass\/fail\u2014no grading on the curve here<\/p>\n

4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 If it works OK, then we have to be sure it is robust\u2014any asset, any market condition, any timeframe, and a random selection of stocks, FX pairs, etc<\/p>\n

5)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 We MUST have a positive expectancy or we are guaranteed to lose all our money\u2014the only question is how fast<\/p>\n

6)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 There will be a sweet spot for our strategy\u2014we want to make sure it isn\u2019t too narrow or changing market conditions will take us under<\/p>\n

7)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Watch out for volatility\u2014it can turn an otherwise robust trading system into a path to ruin<\/p>\n

What comes next??\u00a0 Lots of examples as we expand on each of these items and many more.\u00a0 We will be starting a free webinar soon to explore topics in more depth than we can in our blog.\u00a0 Please tune in as often as you can.<\/p>\n

Author:\u00a0 Rick Martin<\/p>\n

For more information or answers to your questions, email Rick at rmartin@smbcap.com<\/em><\/p>\n

Hypothetical computer simulated performance results are believed to be accurately presented. However, they are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and are subject to change without any notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since, also, the trades have not actually been executed; the results may have been under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any portfolio will, or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. All investments and trades carry risks.<\/em><\/p>\n

We hold no relative positions in any of the securities mentioned.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We have one more major thing to look at as we build out our casino\u2014volatility.\u00a0 We know the house edge for every game, but we also need to know some basic statistics before we open the doors of our casino.\u00a0 Let\u2019s just focus on standard deviations for this discussion and how they affect our returns, and the bettor\u2019s returns. Game … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":921,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,1936,1938,1937],"tags":[4691,20,1946,1947,1943,1710],"class_list":["post-16001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general-comments-2","category-ricks-blogs","category-systems-development","category-systems-trading","tag-algorithmic-trading","tag-algorithms","tag-black-box","tag-gray-box","tag-system-trading","tag-trading-system","no-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nHow To Lose All Your Money | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/how-to-lose-all-your-money\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How To Lose All Your Money | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We have one more major thing to look at as we build out our casino\u2014volatility.\u00a0 We know the house edge for every game, but we also need to know some basic statistics before we open the doors of our casino.\u00a0 Let\u2019s just focus on standard deviations for this discussion and how they affect our returns, and the bettor\u2019s returns. Game ... 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