{"id":14477,"date":"2011-09-20T13:44:01","date_gmt":"2011-09-20T17:44:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=14477"},"modified":"2011-09-20T13:44:01","modified_gmt":"2011-09-20T17:44:01","slug":"a-low-probability-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/a-low-probability-trade","title":{"rendered":"A low probability trade"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I got long NFLX today at 132.55. It had dropped about 10 points from the open to 132.47 and after it made a new intraday low it traded above the previous low. So I stuck in a bid above the original low and knew if my bid got hit I would most likely be stopped out of the trade for a small loss. It was a low probability trade since it was trending lower in virtually every time frame except for the 1 minute. Why would I make a trade where I viewed the probability of making money lower than losing money?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>by every definition NFLX is short term oversold having dropped 60 points in the past 4 trading sessions.<\/li>\n<li>the failure to hold below the new low an initial sign of a possible bounce<\/li>\n<li>my risk was small and well defined<\/li>\n<li>if it bounced up to today&#8217;s opening price the risk\/reward on the trade was greater than 1:10<\/li>\n<li>i knew i would be off the desk by 11:00 and therefore would most likely miss the higher probability reversal trade which i have highlighted on the chart below<\/li>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/sspencer_smb\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/twitter-badges.s3.amazonaws.com\/follow_me-c.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/nflx-chart-september-20th.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-14484\" title=\"nflx chart september 20th\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/nflx-chart-september-20th.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"420\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/nflx-chart-september-20th.png 1000w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/nflx-chart-september-20th-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I got long NFLX today at 132.55. It had dropped about 10 points from the open to 132.47 and after it made a new intraday low it traded above the previous low. So I stuck in a bid above the original low and knew if my bid got hit I would most likely be stopped out of the trade for &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/a-low-probability-trade\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":143,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,8],"tags":[1376],"class_list":["post-14477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general-comments-2","category-steven_spencer_steves_blogs","tag-p","no-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>A low probability trade | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/a-low-probability-trade\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A low probability trade | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I got long NFLX today at 132.55. It had dropped about 10 points from the open to 132.47 and after it made a new intraday low it traded above the previous low. So I stuck in a bid above the original low and knew if my bid got hit I would most likely be stopped out of the trade for ... 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It had dropped about 10 points from the open to 132.47 and after it made a new intraday low it traded above the previous low. So I stuck in a bid above the original low and knew if my bid got hit I would most likely be stopped out of the trade for ... 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