{"id":127,"date":"2008-08-28T08:39:26","date_gmt":"2008-08-28T12:39:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=127"},"modified":"2008-08-28T08:39:26","modified_gmt":"2008-08-28T12:39:26","slug":"predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/predictions","title":{"rendered":"Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

We received an email from a very accomplished young man the other day with an obvious passion for trading.\u00a0 He had traded different products and still had not finished his studies.\u00a0 I am looking forward to meeting him.\u00a0 When we are interested in a candidate we ask that they answer some questions.\u00a0 This young man answered one of our questions (below) which I would like to discuss.\u00a0 And it helps delineate the clear advantage of being an intraday trader.\u00a0 Intraday traders make money whether our predictions are accurate or not.<\/p>\n

8) Please share a life experience that demonstrates your ability to be patient.<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

<\/a>I would like to take an example from my trading experience to demonstrate my ability to be patient. I had the feeling that the commodities prices were being driven up incessantly and part of it was speculation. When oil was at 136, I felt it was overpriced and thought that there will be a sharp drop in commodity prices. As lower oil would support the dollar, I took a long dollar position. Oil prices continued to rise and even touched 145. I still was convinced that there would be a fall in oil prices and did not close out my position. Soon after, oil prices dropped drastically which led to a rise in the dollar strength. I booked profits when oil had dropped to 120. I think this example shows that I have the ability to be patient even when the chips are down. <\/font><\/p>\n

As an intraday trader we are not beholden to the accuracy of our predictions.\u00a0 GMan blogged about the top in oil right before it turned.\u00a0 Pretty good call GMan (I think he also called the bottom of the dollar btw).\u00a0 Steve btw is also scarily talented at calling tops and bottoms in stocks.\u00a0 But GMan pointed out that he would seek confirmation of his thesis from the inside market.\u00a0 And I think this is the point.\u00a0 As intraday traders we develop theories daily.\u00a0 And those are great.\u00a0 But our P&L is not dictated by our predictions but our trading skill.\u00a0 And when you develop trading skills it does not matter whether you accurately predict the top in a sector it just matters that that sector is active.\u00a0 And if it is we are going to make money.\u00a0 Our trading skills allow us to make money on the short side or the long side.<\/p>\n

If you were to take a look at GMan’s or my trading records you would see 17\/20 net positive days.\u00a0 It is almost like something really strange needs to happen for us to be negative.\u00a0 Our trading skills enable our consistency. \u00a0 Presently, CNBC is full of very bright people predicting that oil is going to $200 a barrel.\u00a0 CNBC is also packed with very bright people who predict that oil is going to $100 a barrel.\u00a0 I tend to think those who believe we are headed for $100 a barrel are more persuasive, but honestly I really don’t know (thoughts?).\u00a0 And I am not going to pretend that I do.\u00a0 I do know that if oil goes to $100 I am going to make money.\u00a0 And if oil goes to $200 a barrel I am going to make money.\u00a0 Because I am a trader, an intraday trader.\u00a0 And I leave the predictions for others and just handle the profitably trading part.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We received an email from a very accomplished young man the other day with an obvious passion for trading.\u00a0 He had traded different products and still had not finished his studies.\u00a0 I am looking forward to meeting him.\u00a0 When we are interested in a candidate we ask that they answer some questions.\u00a0 This young man answered one of our questions … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":144,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[137,138,18,38],"class_list":["post-127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general-comments-2","tag-intraday-trader","tag-oil","tag-smb-capital","tag-trading","no-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nPredictions | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/predictions\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Predictions | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We received an email from a very accomplished young man the other day with an obvious passion for trading.\u00a0 He had traded different products and still had not finished his studies.\u00a0 I am looking forward to meeting him.\u00a0 When we are interested in a candidate we ask that they answer some questions.\u00a0 This young man answered one of our questions ... 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