{"id":12343,"date":"2011-06-15T13:58:50","date_gmt":"2011-06-15T17:58:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/?p=12343"},"modified":"2011-06-15T13:58:50","modified_gmt":"2011-06-15T17:58:50","slug":"you-are-trading-patterns-not-opinions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/you-are-trading-patterns-not-opinions","title":{"rendered":"You are trading patterns not opinions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I was hanging inside my office working on a new business idea for retail traders when the email below hit my inbox. \u00a0I spent some time showing our new traders how you trade P in Real-Time, which was the catalyst for this ping. \u00a0After P failed to hold 23 and then for the first time all AM held the offer at 22.70, I announced a likely move back to 20 intraday. \u00a0 18 surprises me but not that much. \u00a0Below 22.70 I saw a potential pattern that I recognized.<\/p>\n<p>Ok so let&#8217;s share that email and then make my trading point.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Im watching P after our lecture and I think the estimate of 20 is too high. its bouncing around the low 20s right now but I see this stock going to the mid to low teens either today or tomorrow. fundies are bad b\/c they have too much competition that offers either the same exact service minus the adds (<a href=\"http:\/\/last.fm\/\" target=\"_blank\">last.fm<\/a>), youtube, and the dozen or so music discovery services that pop up every day. their main source of revenue is adds in the music stream which is an intrusive method unlike something like an add next to a video. I feel this disadvantage alone will kill them.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>You know I like all of this above. \u00a0Makes sense to me. \u00a0But too many investors\/retail traders\/newbs do not understand what their focus ought to be. \u00a0 This idea that 20 was coming next was not based on the facts or fundamentals above. \u00a0It was based on those facts and fundamentals making it more likely for P to form a specific trading pattern. \u00a0It was not that P would find lower ground because they had competition or some other fundamental reason. \u00a0It was that these facts and fundamentals made it more likely that P would become an Exuberant, Excited Open IPO Waning Pattern.<\/p>\n<p>This pattern is lots of buying because of hype and excitement followed by a waning interest. \u00a0This pattern causes a pop and a run at higher highs that fails and then reverses hard. \u00a0So I was not concerned about the right fundamental price of P. \u00a0I was concerned that these fundamentals would cause P to fall into this pattern I have seen so often trading IPOs.<\/p>\n<p>Traders trade patterns. \u00a0Analysts wax poetic about proper price. \u00a0Analysts offer opinions. \u00a0Traders focus on gathering information from the market about what type of a pattern a stock most likely will form.<\/p>\n<p>Mike Bellafiore<\/p>\n<p>Author, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/One-Good-Trade-Competitive-ebook\/dp\/B003VIWRJA\/ref=tmm_kin_title_0?ie=UTF8&amp;m=AG56TWVU5XWC2\">One Good Trade<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/P-reversal.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12344\" title=\"P reversal\" src=\"http:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/P-reversal.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"497\" height=\"420\" srcset=\"\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/P-reversal.png 710w, \/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/P-reversal-300x253.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 497px) 100vw, 497px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I was hanging inside my office working on a new business idea for retail traders when the email below hit my inbox. \u00a0I spent some time showing our new traders how you trade P in Real-Time, which was the catalyst for this ping. \u00a0After P failed to hold 23 and then for the first time all AM held the offer &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/you-are-trading-patterns-not-opinions\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":144,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[4674,1376,1832,1193,653,1354,1349],"class_list":["post-12343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mike-bellafiore-bellas-blogs","tag-one-good-trade","tag-p","tag-smb-u","tag-trader-education","tag-trader-training","tag-trading-coach","tag-trading-mentor","no-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>You are trading patterns not opinions | SMB Training<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smbtraining.com\/blog\/you-are-trading-patterns-not-opinions\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"You are trading patterns not opinions | SMB Training\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I was hanging inside my office working on a new business idea for retail traders when the email below hit my inbox. \u00a0I spent some time showing our new traders how you trade P in Real-Time, which was the catalyst for this ping. \u00a0After P failed to hold 23 and then for the first time all AM held the offer ... 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