Talking Yourself Out of the Market

Mark McLeanGeneral Comments2 Comments

So everyday when the trading session begins in New York I pride myself in being able to gauge what kind of day it might be and base my aggression and ultimate moneymaking potential on that judgement. Some of the factors that I use to base my judgement on are the volume and potential moves of stocks that are in play. I look at what is moving and how much it is relative to the market. I listen to the daily volume annoucements of the stock traded on the NYSE. And I gauge the general motif of our trading desk while speaking to other people on other desks and markets to make a general assessment of the general chatter and news to see if it is one of those days where I should work to maximise money-making potential.

Today I quickly noticed that the news was somewhat scarce. I must admit that I held a bias being that there were no earnings stocks on the eve of the official beginning of earnings season. Upgrades and downgrades were….ehhhhhh….just okay, if not completely subpar. Nothing jumped out at me as stocks that would have a major impacts an their respective indices. Also understand the potential for human error in this scenario, also fueled by personal preference, meaning in the end I could be a good bit off.

Whatever the case, after making a small bit of money to be comfortable with relative the general motion of the market thus far, I made my call, saying things are slow and I don’t expect much more out of the morning session. So as I started to taper off and focus more in my email. I also started to sway the troops, telling them to play a good amount of defense and instead of looking at potential losing plays to focus on potential winning lunch plays.

Boy was I wrong. I must say that I the one thing I can be proud of is that after noticing the Dow Jones coming off of 100 point + gains and swinging heavily negative that I admitted to myself not only was I wrong, but if I could not find a profitable situation to be involved in that my blog, opinion, trading execution, and key privileges to the door should be suspended for at least, say 2 hours. (Come on, any more would definitely be unprofitable).

I say all of this to stress that holding onto an opinion about the market, just like being married to a position or your (wrong) idea about a stock’s intraday move can leave you sourly unprofitable, as well as oppotunistic. I will not say that I did not catch something moving in the violent swing that the futures took today; but I will admit that with a clearer, more susceptible mind I would have made up for a heavily biased morning and more.

We, as day traders, have to realize that when the bell rings in the morning at somewhere around 9:30 that it is a countdown clock for that day. Within that down-ticking clock are numerous opportunities for one to make or break their Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, etc. etc. I mean let’s be serious. Not taking advantage from say, well most Wednesdays on (and some Tuesdays) sourly messes up Happy Hour in many facets. Whatever the case…my point is this: today I talked myself out of the market. I used a slower morning and the pre-earnings anxiety to be drag on what could of been more of a profitable day, instead having to force more in a less volatile afternoon to provide profit for Tuesday morning cereal.

Please don’t be married to an opinion, position, or idea. Like marriage in this day and age, things change in the blink of an eye. And also like marriage in this day and age, you can easily be less profitable and a drag on yourself if you are not quick on your toes and even quicker to respond to opportunity which doesn’t always knock loudly on the door, but might stick his head in the window simply to see if you are looking….

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