Archive for February 2010

Awesome Links of the Week

Feb 28th, 2010 | By Bella | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs

During a StockTwits seminar at the NASDAQ I remarked that new traders who wish to become great must train like an elite performer, and Olympic athlete. Well here is the training of speed skater Apolo Ohno.  Do you work as hard in a focused way as him as a trader?  If not then why would you expect to become a successful trader?

Thanks to Chris Gillick for sharing this article on Stevie Cohen of SAC Capital.   Mr. Cohen first became a great trader by Reading the Tape, measuring the order flow to make excellent risk/reward decisions.  Hmmmm.  Where have I heard that before?

How Derek Jeter trained to significantly improve his defense from below average to Gold Glove caliber.

Two time Heisman winner Tim Tebow works on his throwing delivery to improve his draft status.

Must read blog from Dr. Steenbarger from Traderfeed about those who win.

Touch improves performance and why SMB Traders will be doing high fives after trades going forward :)

Michael Covel shares how to follow the greatness trend.

Top Ten must read blogs from the WSJ.   Congratulations to @reformedbroker from the StockTwits network for making this impressive list.  Well done!

Tonight on StockTwits TV Steve Spencer, partner at SMB Capital, will discuss the new SEC rule limiting short selling. Please tune in at 8:30EST PM.

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SMB on StockTwitsTV

Feb 26th, 2010 | By smbcapital | Category: SMB on TV

Earlier today, Gman appeared on StockTwitsTV to discuss the Market and the stocks in play for the day, AAPL, AIG,and AMZN. In the clip he gave his thoughts on how the market is behaving lately, and the best way to trade it. Watch the clip below and feel free to leave your comments on this blog. SMB Capital appears on StockTwitsTV every M, W, F at 2pm so be sure to tune in.

Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter.

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SMB Morning Rundown – February 26, 2010

Feb 26th, 2010 | By smbcapital | Category: General Comments

The markets are currently set to open flat, the preliminary 4th Quarter GDP revision came in as expected at 5.9%. AIG also reported a $53/share loss this morning and should see very active trading during today’s session. Key levels to watch in the SPYs will be 110.25 and 109.40 for support. Resistance is at 111 and 111.70. Michigan Consumer Confidence @ 9:55AM and Existing Home Sales @ 10:00AM should move the markets.

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Trading Analogies and Humor

Feb 25th, 2010 | By Bella | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs

We have a great new training class from September 09.  Some classes for whatever reason can turn out outstanding and others ordinary.  Same teacher, same material, but very different results.  And from my seat very different teaching experiences.  We haven’t held a new training class since September of 09 so lucky for us that they are so enjoyable.   June of 08 was our best class ever.  But our September class is showing signs.

Today after the Close TH (he is TH until he starts making a lot of money and then he will get a nickname like “GMan” or in @howardlindzon’s case “HMan”- you are welcome Howard) showed tape of a trade he made last month in BA (Boeing).  60 was an important level and BA violated this support level.  So TH started a short position- Trade2Hold Below Support Play.  And then we started having fun.

BA ticked quickly down to 59.73 on light volume.

I commented,”She only agreed to a First Date.”

And then BA quickly snapped back to the 60 level.

“She is looking around the restaurant to upgrade potentially.”

And then BA ticked through 60.

“She has gotten up from her seat and smiled at someone.”

TH countered,”She is just going to the bathroom.  She will be back.”

I continued,”If 60 holds the bid up here then she has sat down at another table to talk to another guy.  If 60.10 holds the bid then she has given her number to that other dude.”

We rolled some more tape and BA found lower ground.  50c of a clean downmove followed.

TH grew more confident in his relationship.

I asked,”Did BA go down because it was weak or was it just the market was weak?  Is she just with you because you took her to a nice restaurant?”

We watched some more tape and then BA went down another point.

TH was beaming.   If he was an NBA baller he would have been pounding his fist against his chest.  Clearly BA was weaker than the market.  She liked him.  Or as Trader Chris quipped,”He just hooked up Bella!”

Like those who you might date your stocks send you mixed messages.  Your job is to intake the data and determine if she really likes you.

Best of luck with your trading.

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SMB Morning Rundown – February 25, 2010

Feb 25th, 2010 | By smbcapital | Category: General Comments

The market is gapping down violently today, currently the SPYs are trading at 109.30 in premarket. Key levels to watch for the day are 109.50 for support, depending on where the market opens the next area of support is at 108.40. Should we attempt to stage a rally there is resistance at the 110.50 and 111 levels.

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SMB on StockTwitsTV

Feb 24th, 2010 | By smbcapital | Category: SMB on TV

Earlier today, Gman appeared on StockTwitsTV to discuss the Market and the stocks in play for the day. In the clip he gave his thoughts on how the market is behaving lately, and the best way to trade it. Watch the clip below and feel free to leave your comments on this blog.  SMB Capital appears on StockTwitsTV every M, W, F at 2pm so be sure to tune in.

Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter.

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Make Trades Your Own

Feb 24th, 2010 | By Bella | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs, Trader Development

After the Close we watched video of HRB (H&R Block).   16 was a huge level on our longer term charts.  And HRB found this level.   And a few interesting questions were raised during our Tradecast.  One was: would you buy before you saw strength on the tape at 16 or would you just buy?

There is no right answer to this question.  The answer lies with you.   If you are an aggressive trader then when a stock finds an important support level you ought to buy.   And buy almost every time so your results are consistent.   If you are more cautious then you might wait for confirmation on the tape before entering.  For me I am piecing into a position as HRB trades near 16.   I am an aggressive trader.

Later during our TradeCast Noob Sean asked whether we ought to short when an offer was holding 16.   For me this was not a short.  Perhaps for Sean it was.   I thought this was a failed breakdown below 16.   For me the play was buy 1/2 a lot when 15.92 dropped and allowed for a new intraday low, but then rebid instantly.   And then wait for the 16 offer to lift to increase my position to 1.5 lots, waiting to add size at higher levels, and treating this as a Trade2Hold.   For Noob Sean maybe this was a play both sides (short below 16, long flip above 16) near the 16.   It is entirely up to you.

There are market principles that must be followed however.   And as long as you respect these market principles and then seek to make trades your own that is fine.   For example, shorting strong stocks and buying weak stocks is not a good idea.  We are all wired differently.   We all have different levels of experience, tolerances for risk, buying power, trading skill, etc.   Our trades must make sense to us.

Best of luck with your trading!

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SMB Morning Rundown – February 24, 2010

Feb 24th, 2010 | By smbcapital | Category: Trading Ideas

Today, the Market appears set to open higher. The levels we are watching in the SPY are 110.90(res) and 109.50(sup). Above 110.90, the next resistance level is 111.50. Below 109.50, the next support level is 109.10.

Our best AM Idea for today, which we highlighted in our AM Meeting is to buy WFMI above 35.15. Tgts: 36.00, 36.50.

Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter!

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Posting a Personal Best

Feb 23rd, 2010 | By Bella | Category: General Comments, Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs

We have been waiting for WFMI to explode for days. Above 34 and then 34.30 were levels to add size. During our AM meeting GMan pounded the table about buying above 34 and then 34.30. One of our developing traders did and posted a personal best. Chop Rosie!

Why did we like this set up? The day after earnings WFMI was strong. 33.55 was a huge level as we spotted an unusual hold on the bid the day of earnings. WFMI could not trade below there for two days, finally did but did not stay below for long. WFMI has room to find 40 as we examine our longer term charts. 34 has been a level it could not clear for days. Above 34 and this was an A trade for us.

Now everyone in our firm had these levels in WFMI. But not everyone was in this trade. Rosie was. I was. GMan was and some others. And there was not much to do save manage our position, look for places to add, and hold. This was a Trade2Hold. At one point intraday I tweeted:

If I was on StockTwits TV Talk Your Book I would be screaming “Watch WFMI” $$ and then I would ask poss tech breakout?

Where was @ppearlman when I needed him? And while most of us lightened up or went out flat WFMI there was not a reason to sell save maybe when WFMI traded below 34.90 into the Close.

Rosie bought and did so with size. Rosie held WFMI for a substantial move. She was prepared and executed. I never understand those who go home complaining about a lack of market opportunity. Stocks go up and down all day long. It takes one stock, with one powerful move to make your day. Your job is to perform. To be in these set ups. To seize the opportunity offered almost everyday to intraday traders.

After the close we met with our new traders and discussed an excellent exercise to improve. I highlighted the opportunity in RIMM below 69, and WFMI above 34, and BRK.B at 80, GS at 160, NVDA below 16.50, AAPL below 199.20, and on and on and on. At the end of the day go find these stocks that offered opportunity. Talk to others on your desk about these set ups. Exchange ideas about how to best trade these plays. And replay them simulating trades that would have made sense TO YOU so that you would have found a way to seize these trading opportunities. So you can be like Rosie!

Best of luck with your trading!

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SMB Morning Rundown – February 23, 2010

Feb 23rd, 2010 | By smbcapital | Category: Trading Ideas

Today, the Market appears set to open lower. The levels we are watching in the SPY are 111(res) and 109.80(sup). Above 111, the next resistance level is 111.50. Below 109.80, the next support level is 109.10

Our best AM Idea for today, which we highlighted in our AM Meeting is to short NVDA below 16.50. Tgt: 16.00

Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter!

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