Today I fought confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is processing information in the market so that it fits your preconceived opinions. You overvalue all the information that backs your preconceived thoughts. You ignore all the information that counters your belief. @steenbab (Twitter handle) and @thekirkreport have written about confirmation bias in their blogs previously. I wanted to share how I had … Read More
AMZN Tomorrow
AMZN has been one of my favorite stocks to trade for the past three years. It usually offers excellent price action for a few days before and after its quarterly earnings report. I have found that watching it trade in the after market once it releases its numbers is very instructive for the next trading day. Immediately following the release … Read More
STJ Earnings Play: Great Shorting Opportunity
One of my absolute favorite plays is a stock that breaks down, comes back up to a great short price where a battle ensues and then breaks to the lows again. Today, STJ presented that opportunity. It had caught my eye in the morning because I generally like the way it trades on earnings, but when I typed it up … Read More
Reading the Tape
In a recent blog Dr. Steenbarger talked about a vital skill for the intraday trader, reading the tape. Dr. Steenbarger, aka the godfather of modern trading psychology, wrote: “My experience is that an understanding of (and ability to read) order flow is one important factor that separates the older, successful generation of daytraders from the newbies who only know simple … Read More
HGSI – Reading The Order Flow
On Monday I was flipping through my list of earnings stocks trying to find what to trade on the open. While scanning through my overnight winners/losers I came across this stock. I noticed it was up $6 and change in premarket on some dopey news about a phase III on their drug. A considerable gap up for a stock that … Read More
Manipulation at Its Best: Will Someone Finally Prosecute? Insights by Jonathan Lebed
I haven’t seen what I witnessed in premarket trading yesterday in quite some time. Some BS company issued a “press release” that they were going to make a tender offer for HAR at $49.50 per share. The name of the company was the Arabian Peninsula Group. This information was picked up by some Middle Eastern site (www.ameinfo.com) which in turn … Read More
Interview with SMB Co-Founder Mike Bellafiore (“Bella”)
For an excellent interview, with SMB Capital Co-Founder, Mike Bellafiore, about training new traders, the growth of SMB Capital, and trading please see this link:
Weekend Review: July 13 – 19, 2009
We were there. On the edge of cracking the 88 level on the SPY Monday morning, when we had a strong rally to begin the week. Then Intel reported to put some fire into this move. We closed the week slightly below 94.50, which puts us within striking distance of our 6 month highs at 95.50. We’ll see how that … Read More